Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DHAKA280
2006-01-20 11:54:00
SECRET
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:  

YOUR VISIT TO BANGLADESH

Tags:  PREL PTER KISL KDEM BG BGD 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000280 

SIPDIS

FOR SA A/S ROCCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER KISL KDEM BG BG BGD
SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO BANGLADESH

Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b, d.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000280

SIPDIS

FOR SA A/S ROCCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER KISL KDEM BG BG BGD
SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO BANGLADESH

Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b, d.


1. (S) Everything and nothing has changed in Bangladesh
since your last visit in May 2005. JMB's stunning onslaught
of violence finally forced the BDG to acknowledge that
terrorism and extremism exist in Bangladesh, but domestic
politics remain as polarized and painful as ever. Your BNP
and MFA interlocutors will be upbeat about the elections and
the anti-JMB campaign, while the Awami League will insist
that the sky is falling down. There will be intense media
scrutiny of your visit because of its timing, coinciding with
the start of the Awami League's potentially final big program
of national agitation before the election, and because the
BDG and the AL will be furiously spinning their interactions
with you to prove USG sympathy for their position.

Extremism
--------------


2. (S) The JMB came close to traumatizing the country in
early December. While its violence claimed only 32 lives
over a span of several months in a country of 144 million
people, the randomness and nationwide scope of the attacks
scared many normally complacent Bangladeshis into wondering
if they might be next. The BNP and JI started to show signs
of strain as even some, mostly dissident, elements of BNP
criticized BDG handling of the crisis and questioned the
utility of the BNP-JI coalition. Predictably, as they do
after any incident of high-profile violence, BNP and AL
leaders blamed each other. But by the time the Id al-Kabir
holidays arrived in January, the mood had shifted, thanks to
the halt in violence following the major arrests and weapons
recoveries in December. Unless and until the violence
resumes, the BNP will continue to claim it has fought and won
the good fight against JMB.


3. (S) BNP leaders will likely tell you:

-- JMB is on the run, thanks to her and the Rapid Action
Battalion (RAB).

-- It was a bad situation, but the total rejection of JMB
violence by civil society, including Muslim clerics and
Islamic scholars, underscores that Bangladesh is a tolerant,
moderate country with no stomach for extremism.

-- In fact, Islam is a religion of peace, so no Muslim could

accept JMB's actions.

-- Since terrorism and Islam are by definition mutually
exclusive, we should look at who benefited from JMB's
violence. The answer is those (read India and the AL) who
seek to defame and destabilize the country.

-- The BDG has proven its commitment to counter-terrorism and
should be rewarded by the USG.


4. (S) Zia will agree with every point on why extremism must
be confronted, and say it is for these reasons that she is
determined to bring JMB to book. If we ask the BDG to shut
down organizations that support terrorism, she will promise
to do so, just as soon as (someone else) demonstrates their
guilt. Zia takes the same tack when pressed to hold BNP
leaders accountable for corruption or their ties to Bangla
Bhai.


5. (S) Sheikh Hasina, on the other hand, says that BNP and JI
instigated the violence to distract people from the
government's unpopularity and the 14-party opposition
alliance's anti-government manifesto. As proof, she cites
the four ministers widely linked to Bangla Bhai. Hasina does
not really believe that either BNP or JI is behind the
attacks, insiders tell us, but she is determined to stick to
the position that the JI is responsible for all BDG misdeeds.
The AL, echoing points made here by the Indian High
Commission, says JMB proved that they were "right" about the
Islamist threat to Bangladesh, and hopes the USG will now
take the issue seriously. (Note: In fact, the AL warned
about the Talibanization of Bangladeshi society as part of an
Islamist-BNP bid to destroy "secular" forces, not an isolated
terrorist campaign.)

Elections
--------------


6. (S) Bangladesh's zero-sum political culture makes any
election a winner-take-all affair, but the 2007 election is
also make or break for the two major parties. For the BNP,
victory shatters the strong anti-incumbency bias of
Bangladesh, and South Asia, that has denied any Bangladeshi
administration a second term, and it positions Tariq to
succeed his mother as PM in the next five years. For the AL,
defeat or boycott implies ten years out of power, a bitter
pill for a party that sees itself as Bangladesh's rightful
ruler and that needs the lure of power and money to maintain
party discipline. With both the AL and BNP wedded or at
least resigned to the politics of black money and thugs (a
legacy of the perversion of democratic practices during
General Ershad's rule),there is every reason to think the
next election will be extremely turbulent. The BNP's
stacking of the Election Commission is the latest example
that it can act shamelessly and on the margins of the law to
advance its political interest. Polls suggest that support
for AL and BNP is neck and neck, with a large undecided bloc;
however, there is strong confidence in the integrity of the
electoral system, which suggests that the AL might have a
hard time justifying a boycott.

7. (S) Your BNP/MFA interlocutors will say:

-- BNP is committed to a free and fair electoral process
because, as the stronger party, it wants the will of the
people accurately reflected. The re-election of the AL mayor
in Chittagong last year, and the upset win of an independent
Hindu in a JI safe seat, shows the impartiality of the system.

-- The real problem is that the opposition does not practice
what it preaches on democracy. It boycotts parliament and
spurns offers of inter-party dialogue in favor of a strategy
of confrontation. The USG should urge the AL to change
course.

-- The caretaker regime system works and doesn't need to be
changed.


8. (S) The Awami League will reiterate that BDG moves to fix
the election leave it with no alternative to boycotts and
hartals. The BDG's choice of two BNP stooges to be new
election commissioners, and the way they rushed through the
swearing-in ceremony to pre-empt opposition, underscores BNP
bad faith. (Note: It is true that the Chief Election
Commissioner and the new commissioners have acted in a
pro-BNP manner.) The USG, the AL says, should support
democracy by supporting the opposition's demands for
caretaker regime and electoral changes, including political
party consensus for key appointments.

Watch Out For
--------------


9. (C)

-- RAB has proven itself against JMB, but needs training and
equipment from the USG.

-- We supported you at the WTO in Hongkong and are now under
fire for "selling out" our garment industry. You should
support the Trade Act to give our garments duty-free access
to the U.S. market.

-- Bangladesh deserves to participate in the Millennium
Challenge Account.

-- (If we ask for BDG support on Iran) We have to respect
Bangladeshi opinion that sees a double standard between your
contrasting approaches to the nuclear programs of Iran and
Israel.
CHAMMAS