FORMER PRESIDENT CALLS HOUSE FIRE BNP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 002739

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2011
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BG
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT CALLS HOUSE FIRE BNP
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT


Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Summary. Former president B. Chowdhury and his son
Mahi label the mysterious early morning fire that enveloped
three areas of their Dhaka home an assassination attempt by
BNP elements fearful of their party's allegedly growing
popularity. BNP desire to deter the defection of restless
parliamentary back-benchers might be a more compelling
motive. Combined with the growing controversy over the
grossly flawed voter list (septel),it seems that the rough
and tumble of the election campaign is already upon us. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) In the early morning of April 30, fire broke out at
the home of former president and breakaway BNP leader B.
Chowdhury, who launched in 2004 the Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh
"alternative stream" party. The house is in the Baridhara
area of the diplomatic enclave and is on the same street as
two Embassy residences. Chowdhury, his wife, his son Mahi,
and Mahi's wife and two small children were home but escaped
injury. Several days later, a fire brigade official told the
press that the fire was not rpt not caused by an electrical
problem. According to the Chowdhurys, they had lived in the
house since they built it in 1986, it was not insured, and it
will probably be torn down to build a new house.


3. (SBU) On May 14, A/DCM met with the Chowdhurys at their
Baridhara home. The Chowdhurys are staying with relatives
but still receive visitors in the garage of their former
home. They asserted they have no doubt that the fire was
arson. Entering the home, they pointed out what they said
were three separate fire areas: one that seemed to start with
drapes in the downstairs living room, and that had burned
much of the furniture and blackened the ceiling and walls; a
second area near a window in the adjacent dining room; and
the third in a second-floor bathroom and closet area on the
other side of the house.


4. (SBU) In the first two downstairs areas, the Chowdhurys
noted melted plastic and wall-mounted air conditioners as an
indicator of intense heat from the fire. In the upstairs
area, they pointed to burn marks on a door and the wall which
stopped mid-way down to the floor; they speculated that an
incendiary liquid had been sprayed from a small high window
at the end of the room. Moving to the wraparound
second-floor balcony, they pointed to a small metal see-saw
that was leaning against the exterior bathroom wall window as
the way an arsonist could have gained access to the window.
The seesaw, they said, is normally part of a play area around
the corner and had not been placed by them in this new
position. They noted that a skeleton construction site for
an adjacent building, with an open concrete floor literally
inches away from one side of the balcony railing, could have
been the bridge for an attacker to enter their property from
the rear unobserved from the front.


5. (SBU) Mahi, BDB's only MP, stated that he became aware of
the fire when the maid, who lived downstairs near the garage,
called him on a house intercom, evidence, he said, that the
house's electricity was still on. It was approximately 0535.
Alerting the rest of his family, they traversed "fire balls"
lapping the circular stairway and blinding smoke to escape
onto the street, where Mahi hailed a passing RAB patrol which
returned in approximately 10 minutes with the fire brigade.
By that point, the downstairs fires had already been
extinguished by locals, but the fire brigade put out the
upstairs fire.


6. (C) The lone police guard on duty at the home was in the
garage and claimed to have seen and heard nothing, and was
likely asleep, the Chowdhurys said. The fire brigade
official who stated that an electrical problem was not the
cause of the fire now told them that he expects now to lose
his job, while police have promised but have yet started
their own investigation. The police, Mahi said, have tried
to blame the fire on their maid but cannot come up with a
motivation. Nothing is missing from the house, and the $1500
that was locked in a suitcase in the upstairs closet was
clearly destroyed by the fire.


7. (C) The Chowdhurys blamed the fire on BNP elements who,
they said, fear BDB's growing political popularity in the
run-up to the next election. They noted the prior attacks
on BDB tied to the BNP, and said that they have continued to
receive written and telephonic threats. As evidence of a BDG
cover-up, they pointed to Home Minister of State Babar's

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statement in parliament that the fire began at 0520, or about
ten minutes after sunup. The significance, they said, is
that the hour before sunup is a traditional striking time for
political assassinations (e.g. General Zia) because people
are well asleep. They claimed that tea-stalls in the area
that are normally open 24/7 were mysteriously shut down for
the night of the fire. The Chowdhurys have received
condolences and visits from almost all political parties,
including IOJ in the BNP's ruling coalition, but not from
BNP, even though the PM's brother, an MP, lives two doors
away and Baridhara's MP comes from the BNP.


8. (SBU) The Chowdhurys stated that they plan to travel soon
to the U.S. and the UK to publicize their cause.


9. (C) Comment: Anything is possible in the turbulent and
cutthroat world of Bangladeshi politics, but it seems
unlikely that B. Chowdhury would have burned his own house
and risked injury to his grandchildren for 15 minutes of BNP
bashing. Moreover, it is true that BNP elements burned down
a factory owned by Chowdhury's principal financial backer and
fellow BNP defector, Major Manan, who was the losing
candidate in the flagrantly rigged Dhaka 10 by-election in

2004. BDB, as far as we can tell, has not caught fire
politically and gets noticed only when it is the victim of an
attack or a disrupted rally, so it's hard to believe BNP fear
its electoral impact. However, what BNP does fear is more
defections from its parliamentary back-benches, especially in
the aftermath of the threat from BNP old guard leader Oli
Ahmad to decamp with supposedly all BNP MPs from Chittagong
if the BNP does not take unspecified action against
"corruption." (In fact, Ahmad's grievances are more pointed
and include disdain for BNP heir apparent Tarique Rahman. In
an April meeting with us, he explicitly ruled out joining the
"inconsequential" BDB.) Thus, the Chowdhury house fire could
have been a warning shot to wavering BNP MPs. Septel reports
the growing controversy over what appears to be a grossly
inflated and manipulated voter list. The rough and tumble of
the election campaign has already begun.
CHAMMAS