PRE ELECTION JOCKEYING CONTINUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 002681

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL BG
SUBJECT: PRE ELECTION JOCKEYING CONTINUES


1. (SBU) Summary: The Election Commission issued a voter list
based on a fresh voter canvas, which showed a 22 percent
increase over previous election lists. AL SYG Jalil responded
to BNP SYG Bhuiyan to ask for mutual concessions in creating
an acceptable dialogue committee to discuss AL demands for
electoral reforms. Splinter Islamic party breaks from BNP led
four-party alliance to create new Islamic party. End summary.

ELECTION COMMISSION ISSUES NEW VOTER LIST
=========================================


2. (SBU) On May 3, the Election Commission (EC) issued its
"draft" list of 91.3 million voters. Media criticized this
as an unusually large over the 2001 voter list saying that
such an increase would only be possible if there were no
deaths and no one was excluded from the count US AID funded
National Democratic Institute (NDI) statisticians told poloff
that based on the 2001 census, after adjusting for any
undercount, the maximum number eligible age population could
only be a projected 77.0 million. They said that without
conducting a statistically valid sampling, it's not possible
to know the basis for the EC's list but speculated that the
difference may be double counts and/or fictitious names.


3. (SBU) BNP appointed Election Commissioner Mohamed Zakaria
told embassy that the year 2000 voter list prepared by the AL
government then in power showed a 33 percent increase in
voters from the 1995 list. He said that the current list
shows an increase of only 22 percent, charged that the
allegations of political bias are wholly partisan based, and
that the EC had doubts about any comparison using census data.

WHY A NEW VOTERS LIST ANYWAY?
=============================


4. (SBU) After the EC declared it would create an entirely
new list, the High Court on January 4 ruled that the EC
should update the list and not make a new list. The EC
appealed, and the Supreme Court deferred a decision several
times, with the latest deferral set for May 14. Election
Commissioner Zakaria insisted to poloff that the law
stipulates that a new list must be created for each election.
Awami League (AL) appointed and recently retired Election
Commission Munsef Ali disagreed in an interview with poloff.
Ali said the law only provides for updating or revising the
voter list. He told poloff he read the law to Zakaria who
agreed that the list could only be updated. However the next
day, Ali said, Zakaria said the EC's decision was to create a
new list. Ali said that Zakaria explained that although
making a new list is inconsistent with the law, making a new
list has been done in the past and we should continue the
practice, even if it's wrong.


5. (SBU) Asked if there was enough time to correct any
problems with a possible overcount, Zakaria blamed the High
Court's decisions for any potential delays. He told poloff
that the hand written "draft" list would be open for
inspection at the 503 sub-district election offices as well
as at the 83 election districts. May 22 would be the last
day for people to file complaints or objections and officials
have until June 25 to revise the list. Then the list will be
made typed, computerized and would be available three months
later. Zakaria said that although the typed lists would be
available in electronic format, they would be organized only
by locality. When asked about how the EC would solve the
problem of double counting, when the same person migrates
from one area to another, and is included on both lists,
Zakaria acknowledged there would be no central data base, and
it's the law that prevents them from having one.


6. (SBU) AL Presidium member Muhuiddin Khan Alamgir told
poloff that the AL rejected the voter list outright. "We
don't think anyone can accept a voter list that exceeds our
historic population growth." Alamgir criticized the limited
distribution, saying that the voter lists need to be
distributed to the 4,500 rural unions, which is one step
lower that the sub-election districts. Only then can the
local people see if their names are excluded or not.

EFFORTS TO START ELECTION REFORM DIALOGUE CONTINUES
============================================= ======


7. (SBU) On May 9, media reported that AL's Secretary General
Abdul Jalil replied in a letter to BNP's Secretary General

DHAKA 00002681 002 OF 002


Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan suggesting both sides might offer
concessions. At issue is the inclusion of Jamaat Islami on a
proposed dialogue committee to discuss AL and its 14 party
alliance demands for electoral and caretaker government
reforms. Asked about JI's exclusion, Bhuiyan said that since
the BNP is already in an alliance with JI, it is difficult to
exclude them. Jamaat Islami's Senior Assistant Secretary
General Mohamed Kamruzzaman told poloff that JI's position is
that there can be no dialogue committee without JI and he has
BNP's assurances on that. AL Whip Farouk Khan discounted
AL's opposition to Jamaat Islami, saying that BNP's nominated
committee is not sufficiently high ranking; the BNP
delegation does not include Secretary General Bhuiyan while
AL's committee has AL Secretary General Jalil.

SPLINTER IOJ GROUP QUITS FOUR-PARTY ALLIANCE
=========================================


8. (SBU) On May 6, the smallest faction of the Islami Oikiya
Jote (IOJ) announced they would quit the four-party alliance,
citing misrule and corruption, and would form their a new
party, the Bangladesh Islami Oikiya Jote (BIOJ) led by
Misabahur Rahman. Media reported that BIOJ members would
support the AL led 14-party alliance's demands, and had
"positive" discussions with the Sheikh Hasina. IOJ is
composed of five Islamic based faction with the largest
faction having three MPs under Maulana Fazlul Haque Amini and
another faction composed of MP Azizul Haque.
CHAMMAS