PRESIDENTIAL DISCONNECT ACROSS ZANZIBAR CHANNEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 001835

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ELAB ECON PINR PTER KCRM SNAR
TZ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL DISCONNECT ACROSS ZANZIBAR CHANNEL

REF: A. A. DAR ES 1433


B. B. DAR ES 1495

Classified By: D. Purnell Delly, Deputy Chief of Mission, for reason 1.
4 b.


1. (C) SUMMARY. Zanzibari President, Abeid Amani Karume,
raised the isles' political temperature on November 2 with
his speech honoring the anniversary of the Chama Cha
Mapinduzi's (CCM) 2005 electoral victory. In a public
address at Zanzibar State House, Karume denied any political
crisis on Zanzibar, rejected the idea of a coalition
government, and called for Civic United Front (CUF) Secretary
General and three-time CUF Presidential candidate, Maalim
Seif Hamad, to resign his party leadership. These comments
set off large CUF demonstrations in Zanzibar and in Dar es
Salaam on November 11 and 12 respectively. While CUF leaders
protested Karume's statements as incendiary, they also
reaffirmed their trust in President Kikwete's leadership to
resolve the political problems on Zanzibar. It is too early
to say whether Karume's speech was a direct challenge to
President Kikwete who, just a few weeks earlier, had visited
Zanzibar and proclaimed progress toward reconciliation "at a
good stage." What is clear is that CUF leaders see a split
between Karume and Kikwete and they are hoping for and
counting on Kikwete to prevail. END SUMMARY.

Karume Infuriates CUF...
--------------

2. (U) On November 2, President Karume hosted a press
conference, marking the one year anniversary of CCM's 2005
victory in Zanzibar's general elections. In this speech,
Karume said there was no political standoff on Zanzibar and
called the idea of a government of national unity "not
practical and unconstitutional." Karume also advised Seif
Sherif Hamad, Civic United Front (CUF) Secretary General, to
resign, comparing him to football coach whose team lost year
after year. Karume's remarks followed President Kikwete's
private visit to Zanzibar from October 17-22 and after
Kikwete told editors of the Guardian newspaper that "efforts
to tackle Zanzibar's political crisis have reached a good
stage."


3. (C) Local press coverage of President Kikwete's Zanzibar
trip was limited, focused mainly on his participation at an
Iftar dinner at Zanzibar's State House on October 21. Juma
Duni Haji, Deputy Secretary General of CUF on Zanzibar, told
Poloff on November 14 that while Kikwete's Zanzibar visit was
"silent" in the press, Kikwete had met with every level of
CCM leadership to discuss the Zanzibar political situation.
Haji emphasized the enormous leap forward: "President Kikwete
is the first President to admit there is a problem on
Zanzibar and that the Union President has a responsibility to
solve it." While Kikwete did not meet with CUF leadership in
Zanzibar, Haji stressed that CUF believed the visit signified
Kikwete's commitment to breaking the impasse. "This is a 40
year old problem. We knew Kikwete couldn't talk to us right
away, but his visit was the right step forward," Haji said.

...And Sparks Demonstrations.
--------------

4. (C) In response to Karume's statements, the Civic United
Front (CUF) staged two demonstrations - November 11 in
Unguja, Zanzibar and November 12 in Dar es Salaam. "The
protests were a direct reaction to President Karume's
inflammatory statements," Haji told Poloff. Seif Sherif
Hamad led both demonstrations, calling for new elections on
Zanzibar. (Note: Ibrahim Lipumba, CUF Party Chairman, was out
of the country). According to Haji, CUF has a third
demonstration planned for November 18 on Pemba Island. Haji
explained that CUF's two main objectives for the

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demonstrations were: (i) to protest Karume's incendiary
statements against Hamad and against a coalition government;
and (ii) to show support for President Kikwete's efforts.
According to the Guardian newspaper, and confirmed by Haji,
Hamad urged CUF supporters not to take Karume's statements
seriously and to wait for Kikwete to speak and explain his
plan of action. "We are crying for Kikwete to speak out and
let us know his thinking!" Haji exclaimed.

CUF Disconnect?
--------------

5. (U) At both rallies, Seif Sherif Hamad stressed CUF's
demand for fresh elections on Zanzibar and explained that the
party's pressing goal was a new election - not a government
of national unity. Haji noted that if CUF were to win in a
free and fair election, CUF would form a government of
national unity. However, Hamad's call for fresh elections
differed from Ibrahim Libumba's initial rejoinder to
President Karume. Lipumba stressed the importance of a
national unity government at his November 3 press conference,
saying that "the issue of forming a national unity government
had been discussed at high levels of both CUF and CCM
parties," and that "the results of the 2005 election (CCM 53
percent; CUF 47 percent) made the formation of a coalition
government inevitable."

CCM Disconnect?
--------------

6. (U) The local press has depicted President Karume's
November 2 speech as a challenge to President Kikwete's
reconciliation efforts on Zanzibar. On November 3 the
Guardian contrasted President Karume's denial of a political
crisis with President Kikwete's comment that "efforts to
tackle Zanzibar's political crisis had reached a good stage."
On November 4, the Citizen newspaper ran a front page
article with photos of Kikwete and Karume with the following
comments juxtaposed: "Kikwete- I can see an impasse; Karume:
No rift in Zanzibar."


7. (C) Professor Lipumba, during his November 3 press
conference, called Karume's denial of an impasse a clear
contradiction of President Kikwete's first national address
in December 2005 (Ref A). Juma Duni Haji elaborated on
Lipumba's remarks, emphasizing that Karume's speech not only
aimed to frustrate and humiliate Seif Sherif Hamad, but
amounted to a public betrayal of President Kikwete. Haji
said, "Karume dishonored Kikwete as President and as CCM
Party Chairman," adding that CUF found it surprising to see a
"public tug of war" between Kikwete and Karume. "Usually,
these disagreements are resolved internally and not revealed
to the public. Something is different here. Something is
fishy," Haji noted.


8. (C) Given signs of a public rift between Karume and
Kikwete, Poloff asked if CUF leadership believed Kikwete had
sufficient power to influence the political scene on
Zanzibar. Haji emphasized that CUF trusted Kikwete and that
Kikwete did have the power - as President, as Chairman of the
CCM party, and Chairman of CCM's National Executive
Committee. Haji noted that while CUF would not set a
timeline for President Kikwete to act, the demonstrations
served as a reminder of the dire situation and need for
speedy action.

CUF Leadership: Hamad Still Standing
--------------

9. (C) In response to questions about Hamad's support base
within CUF, Juma Duni Haji was emphatic: "Hamad is the most
highly revered leader in Zanzibar and within CUF." He
stressed that CUF supporters were frustrated with President
Karume and CCM, but insisted that they were not unhappy with

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Hamad. Just as Juma Duni Haji would not suggest the
slightest decline of CUF support for Hamad, he would not say
that CUF leaders were losing their grip over the more
frustrated and radical, youth wing (Ref B). Haji did say,
however, that CUF leaders could tell their supporters to be
patient only so long. He emphasized that nobody - neither
CUF nor CCM - was happy with the economic situation on
Zanzibar, estimating that more than 80 percent of youth were
unemployed.

Comment: Karume Challenging Kikwete?
--------------

10. (C) Zanzibar's political controversy appears to be
heating up again, with President Karume's public address
fueling the fire. The apparent "rift" between President
Kikwete and President Karume's public statements bears
watching. After a two week trip to East Asia, Kikwete
returned to the controversy on November 13; his next steps
will reveal whether Karume's remarks reflect a challenge to
his leadership and, if so, whether he will be able to rise to
that challenge. Another disconnect which bears watching is
within CUF's leadership circles. While Professor Lipumba's
response to Karume focused on the need for a national unity
government, Hamad's call was for fresh elections. The only
unambiguous strategy CUF appears to have espoused is a "wait
and see" strategy for what President Kikwete will do next.
END COMMENT.
RETZER