Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DARESSALAAM1495
2006-09-05 13:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Cable title:  

ZANZIBAR'S OPPOSITION PARTY: YOUTH WANT RESULTS

Tags:  PREL PHUM PGOV ECON TZ 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 001495 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2011
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ECON TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR'S OPPOSITION PARTY: YOUTH WANT RESULTS
NOT RHETORIC

REF: DAR ES SALAAM 1433

Classified By: Mary B. Johnson, Political Counselor, for reason 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 001495

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2011
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ECON TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR'S OPPOSITION PARTY: YOUTH WANT RESULTS
NOT RHETORIC

REF: DAR ES SALAAM 1433

Classified By: Mary B. Johnson, Political Counselor, for reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Continuing our probe into the future of
Zanzibari politics, the Deputy Chief of Mission met recently
with two Civic United Front (CUF) leaders who currently serve
as elected members in Zanzibar's House of Representatives.
The CUF representatives underscored the growing frustration
within CUF's youth wing and suggested that CUF's older, more
moderate leaders might be losing touch with their younger
supporters. In CUF's view, one immediate catalyst of the
youth demonstration on August 15 (reftel),was the
introduction of new, unfair measures by the Speaker of
Zanzibar's House of Representatives to censor speeches made
by opposition party members. While painting a bleak picture
of a disillusioned youth wing, the CUF representatives did
not suggest that a new strategy was in the works nor air
ideas of how to leverage youth vitality to create a more
effective opposition party. Rather, the CUF leaders seem to
have placed all hopes in President Kikwete's ability to
address Zanzibar's political problems. Both representatives
expressed the belief that if Kikwete had the will, there was
a way - not only to create a government of national unity in
Zanzibar, but to overcome historical animosities, or "ghosts
of the revolution." END SUMMARY.

CUF Leaders Sound Alarm Over Frustrated Youth
--------------

2. (SBU) Hon. Hamad Masoud Hamad, Member of Zanzibar's House
of Representatives from Pemba's Ole constituency, told the
DCM that CUF's youth wing was growing increasingly impatient,
demanding an end to the current political impasse. In CUF's
view, the impasse stemmed from CCM's failure to uphold
democratic elections on Zanzibar in 1995, 2000 and 2005.
Masoud Hamad believed that the ruling CCM party has been
determined to win elections by "hook or by crook." The
August 15 demonstration of 300 CUF youth (reftel) reflected
the impatience of the youth wing who took their frustrations

directly to the party's revered, three-time Presidential
candidate, Maalim Seif Hamad.


3. (C) Masoud Hamad went to great lengths to express concern
over the agitation stirring within CUF's youth wing: "Our
fear is that time is running out. Youth can't tolerate the
fact that there have been no signs and no substance on
reconciliation. We are sitting on a time-bomb!" He also
emphasized the growing disillusionment with democracy among
CUF's younger supporters on Unguja, citing examples of youth
saying, "Democracy has failed us. We need religion."

Tension in House of Representatives Catalyzes Youth
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Hon. Abbas Muhunzi, shadow minister for Finance and
Economic Affairs, explained that the mob of youth decided to
confront Seif Hamad after learning about unfair practices in
Zanzibar's House of Representatives, namely the Speaker of
the House, Pandu Ameir Kificho, demanding to review any
speeches made by CUF representatives or "shadow ministers."
In CUF's view, the Speaker's introduction of such procedure
oversteps the Standing Orders of the House, since the
Constitution of Zanzibar allows free speech in the House as
long a Government of Zanzibar (GOZ) official is not
criticized by name.


5. (C) According to Muhunzi, on July 9, Speaker Kificho
prevented Masoud Hamad from reading several paragraphs of a
prepared speech even though the speech did not mention any
GOZ official by name. The Speaker also barred Muhunzi from
reading a speech on July 31 because he had not submitted the
speech for prior review. Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi also noted
that CUF representatives have tried to form Committees in the
House to investigate claims of "ghost workers and pensioners"
but that these calls have gone unheeded.


CUF Leadership: Losing Touch with Youth Base?
--------------

6. (C) Both Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi were in Dar es Salaam
when the 300 members of CUF's youth wing surrounded Seif
Hamad on August 15. Masoud Hamad said that the demonstration
was impromptu: "We had no advance warning of the youth's plan
to confront Seif Hamad. We learned about the incident only

DAR ES SAL 00001495 002 OF 003


afterwards." Both leaders admitted that they were uncertain
as to who the "ring leaders" of the demonstration might have
been and said that the youth wing was not sharing their
strategy with them. What Masoud Hamad and Muhunzi were sure
of was that the youth on Unguja had started to doubt the
effectiveness of their older, more moderate leaders. Muhunzi
said that when the youth confronted Seif Hamad they demanded
the real story of what was going on: "If something is
happening, tell us. If you have failed, also tell us. Give
us an agenda so that we can get our lives back." Masoud
Hamad told the DCM that there had been no meetings between
CUF leadership on Zanzibar and President Kikwete, secret or
otherwise. "Nothing is going on. We have nothing to tell the
youth and we are worried about their reaction," he lamented.


Can President Kikwete Fix Zanzibar?
--------------

7. (C) Masoud Hamad noted that after the December 2005 Union
elections, CUF leadership put faith in President Kikwete's
promise to address Zanzibar's political and social unrest.
He said that CUF supporters, including CUF's youth wing, put
stock in Kikwete's ability to bring his knowledge and past
experience to bear. CUF supporters were willing to cut
President Kikwete slack during his first several months in
office given the problems of drought, and food and energy
shortage facing the country. "However, after eight months,
the silence has been too long. CUF supporters want to see
actions not words," Muhunzi told the DCM.


8. (C) When the DCM asked what President Kikwete could do to
reconcile the polarization in Zanzibar, Masoud Hamad
responded with the same proposal that Seif Hamad made after
the 2005 elections: the creation of a government of national
unity. "We do not want just token Ministers in the Cabinet.
We want a Zanzibari government which truly represents both
CUF and CCM." Masoud Hamad highlighted that at present half
of Zanzibar's Ministry of Finance (MOF) is comprised of CCM
officials from the Mainland. There is only one official at
the MOF who is a representative from the island of Pemba. He
also said that of Zanzibar's 14 Ministers, there was only one
CCM Minister from Pemba - a Minster without portfolio and
without budget - who has been relegated to an office on
Pemba, not Unguja with the other Ministers and government
officials.


9. (C) Regarding political constraints facing President
Kikwete on Zanzibar, Masoud Hamad seconded Dr. Mukandala's
view (reftel) that factions within CCM on Zanzibar may be
hindering President Kikwete's efforts on reconciliation.
However, he told the DCM, "If Kikwete is serious and has good
will, then the problem should not take too much time to
solve." In contrast to Dr. Mukandala, Masoud Hamad and
Muhunzi did not emphasize the historical roots of the
animosity between political parties and between the two
islands, Unguja and Pemba. Masoud Hamad said that while
currently discrimination was pervasive between CCM and CUF,
and between people on Unguja and Pemba, the prejudices were
temporary and depended on the quality of GOZ administration.
"Does the problem have historical roots? Yes. But a good
leader in Zanzibar can overcome the discrimination and
animosity." He noted that the Mufuaka II Team, which was
composed of five CUF representatives and five CCM
representatives, worked cooperatively from 2001 to September
2005, demonstrating the possibility that CUF and CCM could
work together effectively.

Comment: CUF's Strategy: Waiting for Rain?
--------------

10. (C) With a sense of urgency, both CUF representatives
expressed their concern that the party was losing sway over
their base of young, potentially more radical, supporters.
While understanding the fact that the youth want results not
rhetoric, neither Masoud Hamad nor Muhunzi had a clear
picture of what strategy the youth wing might be considering
nor which youth leaders may have organized the August 15
demonstration. CUF's patient approach to wait for President
Kikwete to follow up on his promise increasingly resembles
the long wait for rain during a drought. Indeed, after eight
months, the approach is wearing thin among young CUF
supporters on Zanzibar's big island, Unguja. CUF leadership
appears in need of a strategy make-over to channel the energy
of its youth base into a positive force, strengthening the

DAR ES SAL 00001495 003 OF 003


party's effectiveness and cohesion. A more pro-active
strategy could spur the Kikwete administration to move beyond
rhetoric in pursuit of real results. END COMMENT.
DELLY