GHOSTS OF REVOLUTION HAUNT ZANZIBAR'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 001433

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2011
TAGS: PREL ECON PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: GHOSTS OF REVOLUTION HAUNT ZANZIBAR'S
RECONCILIATION PROCESS


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Classified By: Mary B. Johnson, Political Counselor, for reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On August 15, just when people began to
think Zanzibar's opposition party might have given way to
political apathy, three hundred young supporters from the
Civic United Front (CUF) surrounded their party leader,
Maalim Seif Hamad, demanding answers. What is the CUF
leadership's plan? And where is President Kikwete on his
promise for reconciliation? To answer such questions, we
have launched a series of meetings hosted by the Deputy Chief
of Mission with respected observers of the Zanzibar political
scene. In the first of these meetings with Dr. Rwekaza
Mukandala, Director of Tanzania's most prominent election
monitoring NGO, Dr. Mukandala offered these views: (i) while
CUF youth are losing patience and looking for leadership, CUF
has not yet decided to look beyond Hamad for a new leader;
(ii) a power struggle within the ruling party, Chama Cha
Mapinduzi (CCM),has constrained President Kikwete's ability
to influence the Government of Zanzibar (GOZ) and advance his
"reconciliation and dialogue" agenda; and (iii) the
reconciliation process between CUF and CCM on Zanzibar
remains "haunted by ghosts of the (1964) revolution." While
we generally agree with Mukandala's observations, we think
unrest within CUF's youth wing nevertheless bears watching.
We also think that ultimately the "ghosts of the revolution"
must fade; to help them do so, we intend to send young CUF
and CCM youth leaders on a group International Visitors
program next year as a confidence-building measure. END
SUMMARY.

CUF Leader Confronted by Youth Mob
--------------

2. (C) Seeking answers, 300 frustrated, young Civic United
Front (CUF) supporters surrounded their party leader, Maalim
Seif Hamad, as he tried to enter his office at CUF
headquarters in Stone Town, Zanzibar on August 15. Venting
their frustrations and demanding a response from Hamad, these
angry youth drew attention to both the stalled reconciliation
process on Zanzibar as well as the leadership void within CUF
itself. Hamad's less than inspired response, according to a
front page Guardian article on August 16 and confirmed to us
by Hon. Hamad Masoud Hamad, a CUF member of the House of
Representatives, was to promise a press release on the
elections which occurred almost ten months ago.

CUF Leadership Void, Pembans Moon Over Hamad
--------------

3. (C) Dr. Rwekaza Mukandala, Director of Tanzania's most
prominent election monitoring NGO known as Research and
Education for Democracy in Tanzania (REDET),said August 16
that while frustrations may be mounting among Unguja's youth,
support for Hamad is still strong within CUF. His popularity
remains especially high on Pemba island - a CUF stronghold
where the party won all 18 seats in the House of
Representatives. Dr. Mukandala said Hamad's enduring party
leadership was based not only on deep reverence and respect
for him among Pembans, but his Pemban origin itself: "It is
very important to Pembans that the President of Zanzibar be
from Pemba. Some Pembans are so loyal to Hamad that they
claim to see his face on the moon!"

Can President Kikwete Deliver on Reconciliation?
-------------- ---

4. (C) Although President Kikwete promised to address
Zanzibar's political problems shortly after taking office in
December 2005, thus far no real progress has been made toward
reconciliation on the isles. Dr. Mukandala noted that over
the past eight months numerous meetings have been held and
numerous briefing papers on reconciliation have been
circulated within the GOT. However, without real or
meaningful progress toward reconciliation, the question of
President Kikwete's influence over the Government of Zanzibar
(GOZ) arises.


5. (C) Dr. Mukandala explained that President Kikwete is
constrained in part by a power struggle within the ruling
party on Zanzibar between "CCM Bilal" and "CCM Karume."
While the "CCM Karume" faction is relatively moderate and
could conceivably support a national government of unity, the
"CCM Bilal" faction is staunchly pro-revolution and opposed
to such a unity government. CCM's Ghalib Bilal was Chief
Minister under former President of Zanzibar, Salmin Amour,
and an aspiring Presidential candidate during CCM nominations
in both 2000 and 2005. Dr. Mukandala cited several examples
of CCM Bilal's extreme and discriminatory attitude,
explaining this faction to be one force putting limits on

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President Karume's ability to maneuver politically and
therefore President Kikwete's ability to push CCM Zanzibar
toward reconciliation. "Only with united party support can
President Kikwete effectively exert influence over President
Karume and the situation on Zanzibar," Dr. Mukandala noted.

Zanzibar's Zero Sum Elections and the Bottom Line: "CCM Would
Never Let CUF Take Power..."
-------------- --------------

6. (C) Dr. Mukandala emphasized another key stumbling block
in addressing Zanzibar's political divide: the almost
singular focus on elections. Both the CCM and CUF continue
to view elections not as part of a democratic process but as
a "zero sum game" or the sole means to change the status quo.
Elections have become overburdened by expectations and fears
that a change in party would mean reversal of policies
implemented after the 1964 revolution, in which the
Afro-Shirazi party toppled the ruling Arab elite. "Ghosts of
the revolution still haunt the election process," Dr.
Mukandala stressed, pointing to CCM party slogans from the
2005 election such as "Mapinduzi Daima" meaning "Revolution
Forever."


7. (C) Dr. Mukandala painted a troubling picture of
discrimination in jobs and expropriation of opposition
property carried out under President Karume's father,
Zanzibar's first president, who was assassinated in 1972.
CCM fears, in effect, that if CUF came to power it would
re-expropriate property, dismiss CCM and hire CUF members for
jobs, and perhaps even dissolve the Union. The fears, he
said, "over-burden" elections, resulting in pervasive
mistrust, each side fearing the other's revenge.
Consequently, Dr. Mukandala said he did not believe CCM would
ever let CUF assume power. (Comment: Dr. Mukandala also
said CUF "would have won free and fair elections" last
October, a conclusion which REDET declined to articulate
clearly at the time, to our disappointment.)

Economic Growth Stagnates
--------------

8. (C) Dr. Ndumbaro, Head of Political Science at the
University of Dar es Salaam and a colleague of Dr. Mukandala
at REDET, added that Zanzibar's "zero sum" political battle
has also had negative economic repercussions for the island.
Despite great tourism and agricultural promise, Zanzibar's
economic development potential remains largely untapped. In
May-June 2006, Zanzibar's economic indicators revealed little
good news: rising inflation, declining exports, and
declining government revenue. It is evident that CCM has yet
to create an enabling environment for the private sector to
flourish. Dr. Ndumbaro explained that this is largely due to
the fact that many businessmen and traders are key CUF
supporters. He also noted that many of these businesses have
relocated to Dar and the mainland.


Comment: Youth Wing Increasingly Impatient
--------------

9. (C) Despite the fact that our meeting with Dr. Mukandala
and Dr. Ndumbaro came on the heels of the protest by 300 CUF
youth, they were adamant that while CUF may be yearning for
greater leadership from Hamad, CUF was not yearning for a new
leader. Nor would Mukandala or Ndumbaro admit the
possibility of a splintering off from the opposition party,
perhaps by disaffected youth. Deep and abiding reverence for
Hamad on Pemba still outweighs any discontent resulting from
apparent lack of strategy or action since the 2005 elections.
Nevertheless, post believes that this very inaction and lack
of political strategy, combined with the outburst of angry
youth, bears careful watching.


10. (SBU) Indeed, as urban and often unemployed youth on
Zanzibar become restless and in some cases disillusioned with
the democratic process, Dr. Mukandala and others have focused
on youth education and leadership training as a long-term
approach to creating future, enlightened Zanzibari leaders
who might bridge the political divide. Asked how the United
States could help, Dr. Mukandala said the U.S. could help
equip the next generation of Zanzibari leaders with effective
negotiation and conflict management skills. Consequently, we
intend to create a group international visitor program next
year for young CUF and CCM leaders which, we hope, will build
mutual trust and help banish the "ghosts" of Zanzibar's
bitter political divide. END COMMENT.
RETZER