Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAMASCUS5031
2006-10-22 05:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

U.S.-SYRIA RELATIONS, SITUATION IN LEBANON,

Tags:  PREL SY LE IS 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHDM #5031/01 2950549
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 220549Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2134
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0234
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0178
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 005031 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PREL SY LE IS
SUBJECT: U.S.-SYRIA RELATIONS, SITUATION IN LEBANON,
ASSESSED BY PRO-REGIME ANALYST


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Corbin, per 1.4 b,d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 005031

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PREL SY LE IS
SUBJECT: U.S.-SYRIA RELATIONS, SITUATION IN LEBANON,
ASSESSED BY PRO-REGIME ANALYST


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Corbin, per 1.4 b,d.


1. (C) Summary: Describing U.S-Syria relations as at their
lowest point ever, pro-regime foreign policy analyst Imad
Shueibi, told A/DCM October 15 that anger and frustration in
the regime towards the U.S. have reached new heights in the
wake of the September 12 attack on the Embassy and what is
perceived as USG lack of gratitude for the robust defense
that security forces had provided. Despite those feelings,
President Asad's sometimes harsh rhetoric, and Syria's
confrontational posture, Asad really wants better relations
with the U.S. but based on compromise and "give and take."
On Lebanon, Shueibi predicted chaos in the coming few months,
the fall of the Siniora government, and "a new majority" that
reflects the post-war realities on the ground. Shuebi
acknowledged that relations with Saudi Arabia were terrible
but maintained that Syria-Egypt relations were on the mend.
End Summary.


2. (C) BILATERAL RELATIONS AT LOWEST EBB EVER: Foreign
affairs analyst Dr. Imad Shueibi, who is close to senior
members of the Syrian regime, including in the security
services, told A/DCM October 15 that relations with the U.S.
are at their lowest point ever. Shueibi pointed to strong
feelings of anger and frustration in the regime towards the
U.S. that have reached new heights in the wake of the
September 12 attack on the Embassy. Shueibi said that SARG
leaders had expected more gratitude (i.e., a sustained
diminishing of public criticism by the U.S.) for the robust
defense Syrian security forces had provided the Embassy.
Although the initial USG statements had expressed gratitude,
the tone quickly shifted back to harsh criticism of Syria.


3. (C) Shueibi complained bitterly about a "secret channel"
of Israeli-Syria contacts that the U.S. had had terminated
about the time of the attack on the Embassy. He called such
an approach short-sighted and mistaken. (Comment: Rumors
are circulating on the diplomatic circuit that there had been
recent secret contacts between Syria and Israel but that they
had recently stopped.)


4. (C) MORATINOS VISIT A SHORT BREAK IN ISOLATION: Shueibi

described the recent visit of Spanish FM Moratinos to
Damascus as "a good break from the isolation," but discounted
its longer-term importance, noting somewhat plaintively,
"What Syria needs is better relations with the U.S."
However, Syrian officials had no hope that relations could
improve until there was a change of Administration in
Washington. When asked if President Asad, given the harsh
rhetoric in some of his recent speeches and Syria's
confrontational posture, really wanted better relations with
the U.S., Shueibi expressed surprise at the question and
insisted that the president wanted to improve relations,
adding that that should have been clear even from the
speeches, despite any criticisms Asad made. In his view,
Asad was sending a message: Syria wanted better relations
with the U.S. but "it is not a charity." Such an improvement
needed to be based on compromise and "give and take."


5. (C) ROUGH SLEDDING IN LEBANON PREDICTED: On the
situation in Lebanon, Shueibi predicted that there would be
chaos there in the next two months because of "problems with
the implementation" of UNSCR 1701. Shueibi insisted that the
resolution had not been implemented fairly, with the emphasis
on articles favorable to Israel and disregard for those that
Syria considered important (he mentioned "article 18," which
includes the usual boilerplate about a just and lasting peace
in the region). In his view, the situation in Lebanon is
unstable because "the results of the war don't accord with
the situation on the ground," elaborating that they don't
reflect the balance of power on the ground. He dropped
truculent hints that "Hizballah will lose patience" and the
Siniora government will not survive, since "a new majority"
is needed, given post-war realities on the ground. On
UNIFIL, he noted somewhat ominously "these forces won't stay
if they are attacked."


6. (C) RELATIONS WITH SAUDI "TERRIBLE": Regarding Syria's
relations with regional powers Egypt and Saudi Arabia,
Shueibi acknowledged that they were bad. Relations with
Egypt were still problematic but on the way to improvement, a
trend reinforced by the recent visit of Omar Sulayman. With
Saudi, relations were at their worst state in 40 years. Both
countries would eventually have to acknowledge, however, that

DAMASCUS 00005031 002 OF 002


Syrian views had to be taken into account because its
geography, among other factors, put it in the center of
regional politics, especially regarding Lebanon. Saudi
Arabia and Egypt were "on the periphery."


7. (C) COMMENT: This pro-regime foreign policy advisor's
take on the importance of having better relations with the
U.S. supports the view that Bashar is not merely pushing for
confrontation with the U.S., despite his sometimes truculent
rhetoric. The reality is more complicated and the recurring
attention given to the U.S. and to the state of bilateral
relations in his speeches and his recent set of interviews
seems to reflect a desire for Syria to break out of its
isolation and re-engage with the U.S.


CORBIN