Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAMASCUS3437
2006-07-12 13:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

INITIAL SARG REACTION TO HIZBALLAH HOSTAGE-TAKING

Tags:  PREL PGOV SY LE 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHDM #3437 1931331
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 121331Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0315
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0116
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0118
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 003437 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE
SUBJECT: INITIAL SARG REACTION TO HIZBALLAH HOSTAGE-TAKING


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 003437

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE
SUBJECT: INITIAL SARG REACTION TO HIZBALLAH HOSTAGE-TAKING


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.


1. (SBU) In the wake of the taking of two IDF hostages by
Hizballah, VP Farouk Shara'a was quoted today as stating that
he expected Israeli "escalation" against Syria. Al-Arabiyya
satellite TV carried the quote but did not provide details.
In a press conference after his meeting with Iranian nuclear
negotiator Ali Larijani in Damascus this morning, Shara'a
said that "the final say is up to the resistance in Palestine
and Lebanon," according to the official Syrian Press Agency,
SANA. "They decide what to do and why." He added that
"surely the occupation is the source and the cause for the
instigation against the Lebanese and Palestinian peoples.
That is why there is Lebanese and Palestinian resistance."


2. (C) Dr. Imad Shueibi, a Syrian political analyst with
close ties to the regime, told Polchief he that foresaw a
"dangerous regional situation developing" if there is no
international intervention to de-escalate tensions. He urged
"intervention in Syria, Lebanon and Israel in support of the
peace process" by the U.S. and other interested parties.
Shueibi said it would be "a catastrophe" if Israel attacked
Syria over the hostage-taking by Hizballah, adding that Syria
would not limit its reaction this time as it had done after
the buzzing of the Presidential Palace in Lattakia two weeks
ago. He described the current Israeli reaction in Lebanon as
part of "a package of escalation" the Israelis had engaged in
over the past month, in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. On
al-Jazeera, Shueibi discounted the prospects of Israeli
escalation against Syria.


3. (C) Shueibi noted to Polchief that the hostage-taking
operation highlighted Hizballah military capabilities,
insisting that it demonstrated how strong Hizballah is and
how dangerous it would be to attempt to disarm the militia.


4. (C) Comment: SARG reaction to the hostage-taking by
Hizballah has been muted thus far. The regime is likely
waiting to gauge the level of the Israeli retaliation and
also attempting to assess the likelihood of Israel including
a swipe at Syria as it puts together its retaliatory
response. Our preliminary assessment is that the SARG has
concluded that a limited Israeli strike against Syria will
only strengthen the regime, as the public rallies to its
defense.
SECHE