Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAMASCUS3194
2006-06-29 14:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

SYRIAN INFLUENCE GROWING WITH REGIONAL

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM SY LE IS IR JO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHDM #3194/01 1801416
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 291416Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0058
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 0108
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 003194 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SY LE IS IR JO
SUBJECT: SYRIAN INFLUENCE GROWING WITH REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS?

REF: DAMASCUS 1913

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 b/d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 003194

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SY LE IS IR JO
SUBJECT: SYRIAN INFLUENCE GROWING WITH REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS?

REF: DAMASCUS 1913

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: The SARG sees its influence growing in
light of regional developments, including the recent
kidnapping of an Israeli soldier, the June 28 Israeli
overflight of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's summer home,
and Asad's separate June 28 meetings in Damascus with
visiting Lebanese Parliament Speaker and the Jordanian PM,
according to Syrian foreign policy analyst Dr. Imad Shuebi,
who maintains close ties to the regime. Shuebi's tone and
comments throughout the conversation seemed designed to give
the impression of a SARG confident about its regional and
international influence and about its own survival. End
Summary.


2. (C) Poloff met June 29 with Syrian foreign policy analyst
Dr. Imad Shuebi to discuss regional developments, including
the recent kidnapping of an Israeli soldier, the June 28
Israeli overflight of the Syrian President's summer home, and
Asad's separate June 28 meetings with visiting Lebanese
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the visiting Jordanian PM,
the ongoing meeting of the Higher Joint Syrian-Jordanian
Committee, as well as jailed human rights and civil society
activists.


3. (C) PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT: Shuebi noted with pride
the response by Syrian air defenses to the overflight by
Israeli warplanes, noting that it was the first time in
recent history that the SARG had responded with force. The
SARG has always sought to convince Damascus-based Hamas
leader Khalid Mish'al of the importance of finding a peaceful
solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, said Shuebi,
who qualified his statement by recounting a chance meeting
with Mish'al five days ago at a wake. Mish'al said that he
was willing to recognize Israel, if Tel Aviv would in turn
recognize a Palestinian state, Shuebi said. When pressed as
to whether Mish'al would intervene to obtain the Israeli
soldier's release, Shuebi denied Hamas' role in the

kidnapping, instead laying the blame on a group connected to
Fatah. (Note: Syrian state television earlier cited an
unnamed Ministry of Information official as saying that the
Damascus-based Hamas leadership could not possibly have
carried out the kidnapping from Syria "by remote control.")


4. (C) JORDAN: Shuebi characterized Asad's June 28 meeting
with Jordanian PM Marouf al-Bakhit, as well as the ongoing
meeting of the Higher Joint Syrian-Jordanian Committee, as
part of an effort to improve bilateral political relations,
which have been deteriorating since March (reftel). One sign
of those deteriorating relations, according to Shuebi, was
Jordan's arming of Al-Qaida militants who on June 2 attacked
Syria's Radio and Television building. (Comment: Shuebi's
comments on the role of Jordan and al-Qaida in the incident
go far beyond what the SARG has publicly said to date about
the shoot-out. End comment.) The official Syrian Arab News
Agency (SANA) reported that Bakhit handed Asad a letter from
Jordan's King Abdullah II, and the two men discussed
developments in the Palestinian Territories and Iraq. Other
media reported that the Abdullah letter contained an
invitation to Amman. The Jordanian delegation includes the
ministers of foreign affairs, interior, energy and mineral
resources, transportation, industry and trade, agriculture,
water and irrigation, and the government spokesman, according
to SANA. The joint committee's last meeting was in February

2005.


5. (C) LEBANON: Shuebi asserted that Berri made his
surprise June 28 visit to Damascus to set up a meeting
between Asad and "a very important Lebanese leader," which
will occur "within days unless a certain other country
intervenes." (Comment: We presume Shuebi was referring to
Lebanese PM Fouad Siniora and the U.S.) Shuebi's voice took
on a gloating note as he suggested that Syria's influence in
Lebanon had only grown since the withdrawal in early 2004 of
Syrian troops. "One Western diplomat asked me why Syria
didn't just overthrow the Lebanese government, but I
responded that now wasn't the right time," Shuebi said. The
USG needed to understand that Lebanon was merely an arena for
political actors, including Iran, the U.S. and Syria, Shuebi
said. It was, in fact, not in the USG's interest for
Damascus to establish formal diplomatic relations with Beirut
because the Syrian Ambassador would wield enormous power,
similar to that of Syria's former chiefs of military
intelligence in Lebanon, Ghazi Kanaan and Rustom Ghazaleh,

DAMASCUS 00003194 002 OF 002


Shuebi stated.


6. (C) HUMAN RIGHTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY: The SARG will show
no mercy to jailed activists, particularly those who
continued to stand by their signature of the Damascus-Beirut
Declaration (DBD),which had clearly crossed Syrian red lines
in its solidarity with Lebanon's March 14 forces, Shuebi
said. Of the 10 jailed activists who signed the DBD, only
human rights lawyer Anwar Bunni and Syrian intellectual
Michel Kilo remain firm in their commitment to the document,
despite pressure from the eight other jailed signatories,
Shuebi said. Kilo would likely face at least a 10-year
sentence for signing the document, claimed Shuebi, mockingly
adding that the SARG would reduce the activist to "a
quarter-Kilo."


7. (C) REGIONAL INFLUENCE AND REGIME SURVIVAL: Throughout
the conversation, Shuebi repeatedly asserted an inextricable
link between the country's strength as a regional player and
the regime's survival. He characterized USG demands for
unconditional Syrian cooperation, including in Iraq and with
Palestinian factions, as naive and inflammatory, claiming
that the USG must treat the SARG as a equal partner if it
hopes to resolve regional conflicts.


8. (C) Comment: Shuebi's tone and comments seemed designed
to give the impression of a SARG confident about its regional
and international influence and about its own survival.
Western diplomats have separately claimed that the SARG is
satisfied that events in Israel and the Palestinian
Territories have spurred phone calls to Asad from the likes
of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and UNSYG Kofi Annan,
confirming Damascus' centrality to the resolution of regional
crises.
SECHE