TEHRAN'S INFLUENCE SAID TO BE SPREADING IN SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 002687

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY IR
SUBJECT: TEHRAN'S INFLUENCE SAID TO BE SPREADING IN SYRIA

REF: A. DAM 1361

B. DAM 710

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: Syria and Iran have exchanged a number of
visits in the past several days: longtime SARG regime insider
and VP assistant Muhammad Nassif Kheirbek was in Tehran on
June 7, and the commander of the Iranian Army's Air Forces
was in Damascus on June 6. One of our contacts mentioned the
possibility of an imminent trip to Tehran by Syrian VP Farouk
al-Shara'a, which would be his second to the Iranian capital
in less than three months. The frequency of high-level
Iran-Syria exchanges has contributed to a buzz in Damascus
about the deliberate and successful spread of Tehran's
influence on a number of fronts here. Some of our contacts
have expressed growing concern about this spreading Iranian
influence in Syria and have noted a division in the SARG
about whether it is a wise policy course. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Syria and Iran have exchanged a number of visits in
the past several days. On June 7, there was a visit to
Tehran by Muhammad Nassif Kheirbek, a senior intelligence
official and assistant to VP Farouk Al-Shara'a. An article
in Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)
characterized Nassif as Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's
special envoy. Nassif met with Iranian FM Manouchehr Mottaki
on bilateral and regional issues including Iraq, Lebanon and
the Palestinian conflict, according to IRNA. Nassif called
for strengthening ties between countries in the region to
promote stability and security, and he underlined Syria's
support for Iran's right to nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes, according to IRNA. The two officials characterized
Tehran-Damascus relations as strategic and sustainable.
Syria's official media did not report on Nassif's trip, but
one of our contacts recently mentioned in passing that a
Shara'a aide was set to travel to Iran as part of the
preparations for a Shara'a trip to Tehran, which would be the
VP's second visit to the Iranian capital in less than three
months (reftel A).


3. (U) Earlier this week, Syrian PM Naji al-Otri visited
Tehran, meeting with Iranian VP Mohammad Reza Aref, according
to a June 5 BBC report. Aref was quoted by the BBC as
saying, "We are ready to help Syria on all grounds to
confront threats," while Otri was quoted as saying his
meeting was taking place at a "very important and delicate
time, with Syria and Iran facing numerous challenges." On
May 28, Syrian Minister of Economy and Trade Amer Hosni Lutfi
met in Tehran with Iran's First Vice President Parviz Davoudi
and called for the speedy execution of economic projects
between the two countries and for the boosting of economic
and trade ties, according to the official Syrian Arab News
Agency (SANA). (Comment: Lutfi's comments may reflect the
frustration of some Syrian public and private sector
entities, as reported reftel B, that very little has
materialized economically as a result of Syria-Iran
exchanges.)


4. (C) On June 6 in Damascus, visiting Commander of the
Iranian Army's Air Forces Gen. Karim Qawami met with Syrian
Defense Minister Gen. Hassan Turkmani to discuss "current
developments in the region and cooperative relations between
the two friendly Syrian and Iranian armies and ways of
developing them," according to SANA. Syria's Chief of Staff
Lt. Gen. Ali Habib also met Qawami and his delegation, SANA
reported without elaboration. Post does not know if there is
a connection, but an Egyptian diplomat told us this week that
his embassy has received unconfirmed information from a
reliable Syrian source that Iran recently requested Syrian
permission to station Iranian missile batteries and their
crews on Syrian territory (presumably as part of increased
air defense protection for Iran). The SARG responded that
Iran could either station unmanned surface-to-surface and
surface-to-air missile batteries here and train Syrians to
operate them or that Iran could send them through Syria to
Hizballah, said the diplomat who emphasized he was still
seeking separate confirmation of the report that he had
forwarded to Cairo.


5. (C) The frequency of high-level Iran-Syria exchanges has
contributed to a buzz in Damascus about the deliberate and
successful spread of Tehran's influence on a number of fronts
here. A Canadian diplomat told us this week about Iran's
educational recruitment efforts at a university in the
eastern Syrian city of Deir-ez-Zor where the Canadians are
also trying to set up an educational advising center. The

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diplomat also noted that this week was "Iranian Cultural
Week" in Deir-ez-Zor. Separately, a Jordanian diplomat and
Syrian contacts have mentioned repeatedly over the past year
Iranian Shiite proselytizing in the northeast of the country,
particularly around Raqqa, where there is a large Shiite
shrine reportedly paid for by Iran. On June 7, the Syrian
Champress website carried an article entitled "Growing Shiite
Presence a Dilemma for Syrians," which characterized
Damascus' Saida Zeinab mosque as a thriving hub of Shiite
activity dominated by Iranians, Iraqis and Afghans. The
article quoted a Sunni preacher from Aleppo, Mahmoud
Alhosainy, as praising Syrian authorities for respecting
freedom of religion, while also noting that Iranian support
of Shiites beyond Iran's borders could spark an explosion of
violence. "Iran is capable of doing any kind of activity it
wants here, without anyone from the government stopping
them," Alhosainy said. On the economic front, our Egyptian
colleague noted that he had recently encountered Syrian
businessmen serving as fronts for Iranian investors seeking
to do business in Cairo.


6. (C) Comment: All of this Iranian activity has disturbed
some of our Syrian contacts, who report a division in the
SARG between those who want to proceed "full speed ahead"
(based primarily on the assessment that Syria is isolated and
under threat),and those who fear that Syrian interests will
eventually be jeopardized by such a bold approach.
Hard-liners like Ba'ath Party Regional Command National
Security Bureau Chief Hisham Ikhtiyar and VP Shara'a,
apparently with the support of the President, have pressed
for this full embrace of Tehran. Nassif, although he has
carefully nurtured a discreet reputation over the years for
wanting dialogue with the USG, especially via back channels
or through intelligence channels, is considered to be one of
the long-time architects of Syria's Iran policy. He plays a
complex role in foreign-policy making circles on Iran policy
and has traditionally exercised heavy influence over Syrian
policy toward both Iraq and Hizballah. Because those "files"
are considered among the SARG's most active, Nassif's
influence is thought to be on the rise yet again (despite
conflicting reports earlier in the year that his influence
had been eclipsed). Long-time contacts like Shiite
businessman Saeb Nahas have insisted to us repeatedly,
however, that Nasif is an ally of his and Foreign Minister
Mu'allim's in their insider efforts to curb the influence of
hard-liners like Shara'a and to seek avenues for
re-engagement with the U.S.

7, (C) Comment Continued: The group led by Mu'allim arguing
for more caution in Syria's approach toward Iran has not had
much success in braking Syria's overt embrace of Tehran over
the past six months. Samir al-Taki, a Mu'allim protg, told
Polchief recently that the SARG's tilt toward Iran was
complicating and souring Syria's relations with traditional
regional allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia, destroying any
possibility that Syria's regional foreign policy could have
any "Arab dimension," a fatal defect, in al-Taki's view.
These key allies perceive Iranian regional interests as
inimical to their own. Egypt in particular is questioning
why Syria is "isolating itself" and allowing Iran in effect
to marginalize Damascus' regional influence. Contacts such
as al-Taki insist that, in the end, "at five past midnight,"
Iran -- because it has so many cards to play -- will be able
to strike a deal with the U.S., leaving Syria out on a limb,
caught in an awkward and dangerously confrontational position
toward the U.S.
SECHE