Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAMASCUS2072
2006-05-04 13:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

SEIF SAYS SARG ONLY FEIGNING CONFIDENCE, FACING

Tags:  PGOV PHUM SY 
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VZCZCXRO4163
OO RUEHAG
DE RUEHDM #2072/01 1241337
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 041337Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8765
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0036
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 002072 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SY
SUBJECT: SEIF SAYS SARG ONLY FEIGNING CONFIDENCE, FACING
SIGNIFICANT HURDLES

REF: A) DAMASCUS 2064 B) DAMASCUS 1433

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4(b)/(d
)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 002072

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SY
SUBJECT: SEIF SAYS SARG ONLY FEIGNING CONFIDENCE, FACING
SIGNIFICANT HURDLES

REF: A) DAMASCUS 2064 B) DAMASCUS 1433

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4(b)/(d
)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with Charge d'Affaires and
PolChief on May 4, key opposition figure Riad Seif noted a
recent decrease in SARG security scrutiny. However, he
remains subject to a travel ban and will not participate in
the upcoming Syrian-American Congress in person or via a live
hookup. Seif described his recent visit to Kamal Labwani in
Aadra prison, calling Labwani "strong, determined, and
optimistic." Seif also commented on the SARG's current
situation, noting that the regime is feigning confidence and
is cracking down on civil society due to nervousness about
external events, particularly the upcoming UNIIIC report.
Furthermore, Seif added that in his view, the current
economic situation in Syria is unsustainable over the longer
term. Meanwhile, Seif is encouraging the Damascus
Declaration group to establish an external committee that
could act without threat of SARG retribution and would be
authorized to make statements for the entire Declaration
movement. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) SECURITY PRESSURE DECREASED, BUT STILL NO PASSPORT:
Key opposition figure Riad Seif met with Charge d'Affaires
and Polchief in his office on May 4. Seif noted that overt
security pressure on him has decreased recently. While a
security agent remains stationed outside his office door,
requesting information about visitors, Seif is no longer
followed by security service cars. He has also not been
called in for meetings with security service officials for
the last two months. Seif suspects, however, that security
service scrutiny is being continued covertly. Seif added
that he was recently informed that he is not allowed to
travel and was refused a new passport when he applied. Thus
he will not be able to participate in the May 20
Syrian-American Congress in Chicago. Seif expressed
disappointment at not being able to publicly take on SARG
figures like Butheina Sha'aban or Imad Mustafa. He would not
fear being arrested upon return to Syria due to the very
public nature of the appearance with two SARG officials. Nor

does he plan to participate in the conference by video or
phone, since it would not have the same effect as he would
not be able to express his opinions fully and may face more
repercussions for making critical statements within Syria.


3. (C) SEIF RETURNS TO AADRA PRISON TO VISIT LABWANI: Seif
described his recent visit to Aadra Prison, where he was
imprisoned for nearly five years, to visit jailed activist
Kamal Labwani. Seif joked that returning to Aadra was "like
going home" and that he received a big welcome from the
guards. Seif was surprised at the ease of which he was
allowed to enter the prison, noting that no one bothered to
check his visitation permit until well into his conversation
with Labwani. Seif said that the SARG is being "harsh and
cruel to people" and cited Labwani's experiences in prison,
where prisoners allied with the SARG harass and steal from
him. Seif described Labwani as still being very strong,
determined, and optimistic.


4. (C) SARG ONLY FEIGNING CONFIDENCE: According to Seif,
the SARG is attempting to look confident in the public arena
but is in fact very nervous about external events,
particularly the June 15 UNIIIC report. The SARG cannot
control external events, and is thus asserting its internal
control by cracking down on civil society. The SARG
particularly fears the mobilization of the masses, which
could create an environment similar to the March 14 events in
Lebanon, and has thus emphasized to him and others its red
line banning public demonstrations. At the same time,
however, Seif noted that while the opposition (and
particularly himself) enjoys indirect, moral support from
society at large, the Syrian public is not willing at this
stage to take to the street in support of change.


5. (C) ECONOMIC CRISIS LOOMS: Seif was also very pessimistic
about Syria's economic future. While acknowledging that
growth is occurring in some sectors, Seif noted that the SARG
is using its foreign exchange reserves to maintain stability
and prop up the currency. Seif predicted that the SARG will
face major budgetary problems in one year, based on
decreasing oil revenues, lower tax revenues, and increasing
poverty and unemployment levels. Commodity prices are also
heavily subsidized, but the SARG fears raising prices (and
decreasing subsidies),particularly for diesel. Seif noted
that he had heard that Deputy Prime Minister for Economic
Affairs Abdullah Dardari is making pessimistic statements

DAMASCUS 00002072 002 OF 002


privately about the country's economic situation, expressing
concerns to friends about the countries fiscal situation and
particularly the need to raise diesel prices by 300%.


6. (C) COMMENTS ON DAMASCUS DECLARATION: Seif is focused
on re-energizing the Damascus Declaration group. He noted
that he had signed the separate, recently drafted
Damascus-Beirut Declaration (ref A) and will forward a copy
to the embassy. He is also encouraging his fellow Damascus
Declaration (DD) signatories to allow the creation of an
external DD committee that would be able to act and speak out
freely without the constant threat of SARG retribution faced
by the internal DD members. The external committee could
"breathe more freely and cannot be blocked," while still
communicating and discussing with the internal members. Seif
emphasized the importance of the external group having the
authority to speak on behalf of the entire international
Damascus Declaration movement. Seif suggested Paris-based
professor Burhan Ghalioun in this context.


7. (C) NEW BOOK PROJECT EXPLORES PRE-ASAD SYRIA: Seif also
is counting down the three weeks left before the end of the
two-month press ban imposed by the SARG (ref B). (COMMENT:
Seif did not speculate about how he will respond if the SARG
security services insist, as we think likely, that he
continue to muzzle himself and not give interviews.) Seif is
also working on a book project exploring the state of
pre-Asad Syria. Noting that Syria was considered an economic
tiger before the Ba'thist seizure of power, Seif seeks to
present in his book a Syrian tradition of democracy, freedom,
and lack of corruption and how issues like rule of law,
education, and Islamism were handled successfully by leaders
of that day. Combining documents and new interviews with
figures from that period, Seif seeks to juxtapose the
leadership of that era with the current regime and encourage
Syrians to "regain self-confidence that democracy and freedom
are possible." Seif's goal is to reach the ordinary people
who have been "brainwashed" and to make democracy more
understandable to society at large. Such an effort is
necessary not only to educate Syrians about their democratic
past, but also to counteract the SARG's relatively effective
campaign of equating democracy with the current political
problems of Iraq and Lebanon.
SECHE