IDRISSA SECK TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 000832

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/06
TAGS: PGOV PINR SG
SUBJECT: IDRISSA SECK TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

REFS: A) DAKAR 0565; B) DAKAR 0316

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER, FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Ex-PM Idrissa Seck, released from prison less
than two months ago, has declared he will run for
president. In declaring, he reiterated denials that he
made any deal with President Wade for his release, echoed
friends' and allies' call for national "redressement" or
recovery, and called, no doubt consciously in vain, for
the opposition to rally to him. Seck may have calculated
that Wade is vulnerable, the opposition is hapless, and
that he must act before bitter enemies in the PDS
undermine him. END SUMMARY.

DECLARING POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE
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2. (U) PM Idrissa Seck announced April 4, Senegalese
Independence Day, that he is a candidate for President.
He reiterated that he had not agreed with Wade on any
preconditions for his February 17 release from prison,
and said such a deal would be "a double abomination, both
moral and political ... which would transform a judicial
affair into a hostage-taking with ransom demand and ...
reinforce suspicions that (Senegalese) justice acts
according to executive fiat." He argued that for two
years he had been the target of official "aggression."


3. (U) Seck said he would submit to voters a project
for national "redressement" (rectification or recovery)
by a "team representative of the skills and virtues of
our people." He would seek support first of all within
the ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS),which he
called "my natural family, in the sense of those men and
women who openly or in secret share my vision and
values." He would also seek backing from other parties
both within the country and in the Senegalese diaspora.
He then called on the opposition to rally to him, an
invitation which opposition co-leader, the Alliance des
Forces du Progres' Moustapha Niasse, promptly rejected.

COMMENT
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4. (C) In deciding to run for president now rather than
hunker down within the PDS and wait for Wade to
rehabilitate him, Seck must have made several assumptions
or calculations, including: 1) Wade would be vulnerable
to an effective challenge; 2) the opposition is
disorganized while its presumptive candidate, Moustapha
Niasse, lacks energy or charisma; and, 3) within the PDS,
he must act before enemies led by Prime Minister Macky
Sall undermine his popular support and party structures
he has built, especially in his populous hometown of
Thies.


5. (C) Two things stand out in Seck's declaration of
candidacy. First, he was insistent he made no bargain
with Wade as the price for release from prison. This is
apparently important to Senegalese voters, who, we are
often told, will energetically back an underdog but not
someone who openly compromised his principles. Second,
Seck's "projet de redressement" recalls language used by
Kaolack Tidjane religious leader Mamoune Niasse and youth
leader Talla Sylla, with whom he has been in touch since
immediately after his release. Seck may hope these small
parties, among others, will provide needed money,
activists and organization.


6. (C) We doubt Seck really expected the opposition to
rally immediately to his cause, and Niasse's rejection of
his invitation cannot have been a surprise. Seck may
hope, though, that over several months he will draw
significant support from opposition cadres disenchanted
with their leaders. END COMMENT.
JACKSON