SENEGAL'S SOCIALIST PARTY IN CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 000368

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AA AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL'S SOCIALIST PARTY IN CRISIS

REF: 05 DAKAR 2311

Classified By: CDA ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D),

SUMMARY
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1. (C) With one year to go until 2007 presidential and
legislative elections, Senegal's leading opposition party is
experiencing turmoil. Dissidents have created a faction
within the Socialist Party (PS). Their goal is to suppress
any aspirations PS Chair Ousmane Tanor Dieng has for the
presidency in 2007 and find a more charismatic candidate.
END SUMMARY.

THE COURANT DE PENSEE
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2. (U) A group of long-serving and well-known PS members,
led by Mayor of Ziguinchor Robert Sagna, has announced the
formation of a dissenting "Courant de Pensee" (way of
thinking). The faction makes up one third of the PS
Political Bureau, and includes Cheikh Abdou Khadr Cissokho,
Mayor of Bakel and former President of the National Assembly;
Souty Toure, Mayor of Tambacounda and former Minister of
Decentralization; Moustapha Ka, former Minister of Culture;
and Mamadou Diop, President Leopold Senghor,s Director of
Cabinet. In the past, all have been dismissed by younger PS
activists as "dinosaurs" and as the embodiment of the
clientele system perfected by former President Abdou Diouf.


3. (C) Sources close to the Courant de Pensee told Poloffs
their goal is to make PS Chairman Tanor realize his power is
not absolute. They accuse Tanor of isolating all who
challenge his leadership of the party while he prepares his
run for the presidency. They believe the PS could win up to
30 percent of the votes in the 2007 elections (while, they
hope, allied coalition partners would win another 20-plus
percent) but not with Tanor as candidate. The "Courant"
wants Tanor to remain party chairman but hopes to field
another, such as Sagna, as the PS presidential candidate.


4. (C) While it probably delighted President Wade's ruling
Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) to read about the
"Courant," it has horrified Tanor's friends in the PS.
Serigne Mbaye Thiam, in charge of electoral issues for PS and
the opposition coalition, told PolOff (despite all other
available evidence) that PS has developed a "strong culture
of democratic decision-making." He said that in the past,
issues were always openly discussed among all party members,
not first announced in the media, as the "Courant" had done.
He felt, however, that "Courant" grievances would ultimately
be resolved.

COMMENT
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5. (C) Despite Thiam's assurances, creation of this faction
poses a serious threat to the PS and the opposition as a
whole. "Courant" members appear to enjoy support in rural
areas and in their own constituencies. If the split is not
resolved quickly and completly, there will be little time
for the opposition to unite behind a single candidate,
especially for the first or (if Wade so chooses) the single
round of elections. Still, it remains to be seen whether the
venerable PS will disintegrate or if this is a step in the
rocky path to democratic renewal of the Party. It is worth
noting that Sagna has worked closely with Wade on the
Casamance peace process and that many believe that Wade has
attempted to lure Sagna to join the PDS. END COMMENT.
JACKSON