GUINEA BISSAU: RETURN OF THE RED HAT CREATES BROAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002893

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE, INR/AA AND S/P
ACCRA FOR USAID/WA
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINS ECON EAID PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA BISSAU: RETURN OF THE RED HAT CREATES BROAD
CONCERN

REF: 05 DAKAR 1703

Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Former President Kumba Yala, widely described as
&crazy,8 is creating unease in Bissau as he takes the
reigns of the second largest party in the National Popular
Assembly (ANP),the Party for Social Renewal (PRS). There is
talk by the largest opposition party, the Party for the
Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC),of
colluding with the PRS to hold a no confidence vote in the
Government, based in part on meager donor pledges.
Meanwhile, the ANP prepares to debate amnesty for military
crimes, which would include the 2004 murder of then Armed
Forces Chief Seabra. There is no budget for the new fiscal
year which starts next month, and the GOGB is still looking
for ways to cover the financing gap. END SUMMARY.

KUMBA,S PARTY DIVIDED
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2. (C) Former President Kumba Yala returned from
self-imposed exile in Morocco, still wearing his trademark
red hat, and was elected head of the PRS at its November 8-12
Congress in Bissau. The results are being challenged in
court by three of the losing candidates, reflecting deep
divisions within the party. The legal challenge will not
likely undo Yala,s election in which he received some 70
percent of the vote, mostly from Balanta youth among whom he
remains extremely popular. Yala has since returned to
Morocco and even those closest to him in the PRS do not know
when he will return. In private, Certorio Biote, one of the
PRS leaders close to Yala and newly appointed President of
the Supreme Accounting Court told PolOff he hoped Yala stays
away until the next presidential election scheduled for 2010
because his presence is destabilizing for the country. He,
like most others PolOff spoke with, described Yala as
erratic, populist, and a little crazy.


3. (C) IMET graduate Colonel Joao Antonio Gomes, Deputy
Inspector of Army Forces, echoed Biote,s comments and went
further. &All of us are worried,8 he said of the army in
regard to Kumba Yala,s return. The concern is not of armed
insurrection but of the future of Guinea-Bissau should Yala
be re-elected in the next presidential race. He said the
best thing the international community can do for the
stability of the country is prevent Yala from returning to
power.


4. (U) Upon his arrival in Bissau, Yala called the
government of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes illegitimate and
called for new legislative elections. He cited a previously
secret agreement signed in Dakar in June 2005 between him and

SIPDIS
then presidential candidate Joao Bernardo &Nino8 Vieira in
the presence of the African Union (Reftel). In that
agreement, Yala agreed to support Vieira as a presidential
candidate after Yala failed to qualify for the second round
of voting. In exchange, Vieira would appoint certain Yala
supporters to governmental posts. According to the PRS, the
only appointment Vieira honored from the agreement was Armed
Forces Chief of Staff General Batista Tagme Na Waie. Since
Yala made the agreement public last month, Vieira has made
some shuffles including replacing Interior Minister Ernesto
Carvalho with former Justice Minister under Yala, Dionisio
Kabi of the PRS. Carvalho was also in the PRS but not a
militant. Biote, who was a member of the National Popular
Assembly (ANP) and recent IVP participant, was appointed as
part of this reshuffle. Rumors are circulating in Bissau
about who may be next to go.


5. (C) Vieira,s actions are in part an attempt to stave off
a no confidence vote in the ANP, which is in session until
December 22. The largest opposition party, the PAIGC, has
made public overtures to the PRS to join forces and vote out
the Gomes government. One wing of the PRS is in favor of
that option, but another wing prefers to consolidate its
resources to make a strong showing in the next scheduled
elections. Vieira faced a similar challenge getting his
policy program approved by the same assembly in February and
succeeded with the help of backroom deals and alleged vote

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buying.

AMNESTY NATIONAL
--------------

6. (U) The most important and contentious legislation before
the ANP this session is a general amnesty for all military
crimes committed from 1980 through 2004 including the
assassination of then Armed Forces Chief of Staff Verissimo
Correia Seabra. Since the session opened on November 27,
Vieira, Gomes and Tagme have spoken out in favor of amnesty
as a means of creating stability and moving forward with
security sector reform. Tagme, who assumed his current
position after Seabra,s murder, said Guinea-Bissau faced
&interethnic war8 if people could not forgive each other.
Yala and Tagme are thought by many to have at least some
level of knowledge or complicity in the Seabra murder.


7. (U) The International Commission of Transitional Justice
(ICTJ) visited Bissau at the invitation of UNOGBIS (the UN
transition office) to help the GOGB address crimes committed
during wartime. UNOGBIS Political Officer Linda De Souza
noted that Guinea-Bissau has a relatively small
reconciliation to address compared to other countries like
Angola and Mozambique, but still the GOGB has not pursued
ICTJ support.

NEW FISCAL YEAR WILL START WITHOUT BUDGET
--------------

8. (U) Conspicuously missing from the ANP agenda is the FY
2007 budget which goes into effect January 1. The Government
pulled it from consideration, raising concerns that it had
not yet received pledges of support to close the budget gap
since the donor,s conference last month.


9. (C) Special Assistant to the Foreign Minister Domingos
Semedo told PolOff that the U.S. &gave nothing8 to
Guinea-Bissau at the donor,s round table despite the
announcement of over USD 3 million in program support in the
coming year. He also said the announcement made at the round
table that the U.S. is re-opening its embassy in Bissau in a
process which may take approximately three to five years did
not help the Government at all. The GOGB, he said, needed
U.S. permanent presence immediately to show the world that it
is a viable, stable country. He asked that the USG
reconsider its offer and PolOff replied that no new pledges
could be made as budgets have been set.


10. (U) Semedo expressed the Foreign Minister,s continued
interest in signing the Tri-partite agreement between
Guinea-Bissau, the United States, and Brazil. In a signal
the Government is starting to respond to criticisms of
overspending on international travel, he said a signing
ceremony in Dakar or Bissau would be preferable to the
previously discussed signing in Washington.

COMMENT
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11. (C) Uneasiness over the future of the country is almost
palpable in Bissau since Yala,s return, even in his own
party. The poor showing at the donor,s conference has
weakened the Government in the eyes of opposition parties and
the general population. At stake is a year,s worth of hard
work which produced a poverty reduction plan, security sector
reform plan, and policy program not to mention tens of
millions of U.S. dollars in pledges by donors for budgetary
support. Vieira is likely working hard behind closed doors
with PAIGC and PRS leadership to cut deals to keep the
Government running. If successful, there will probably be
more staff and budget changes, possibly including the Prime
Minister. END COMMENT.


12. (U) Visit Mission Dakar's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
JACOBS