Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAKAR2479
2006-10-16 11:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

FIXER, HATCHETMAN, JAILBIRD, STATESMAN: FOUR

Tags:  PGOV EAID ECON PINS PINR KDEM KMCA KHDP SG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0354
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #2479/01 2891134
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161134Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6572
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MCC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 002479 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, PM/WRA, INR/AA AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV EAID ECON PINS PINR KDEM KMCA KHDP SG
SUBJECT: FIXER, HATCHETMAN, JAILBIRD, STATESMAN: FOUR
CONVERSATIONS WITH IDRISSA SECK

REF: 05 DAKAR 02509

DAKAR 00002479 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Political Counselor Roy L. Whitaker for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 002479

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, PM/WRA, INR/AA AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV EAID ECON PINS PINR KDEM KMCA KHDP SG
SUBJECT: FIXER, HATCHETMAN, JAILBIRD, STATESMAN: FOUR
CONVERSATIONS WITH IDRISSA SECK

REF: 05 DAKAR 02509

DAKAR 00002479 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Political Counselor Roy L. Whitaker for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Ex-Prime Minister Idrissa Seck, Abdoulaye Wade's
"spiritual son" and strategist until he fired and jailed him,
is testing popular support for his presidential bid in a
pre-campaign tour of the regions. We had no direct contact
with Seck since April 2004, but in the last three weeks we
have had several chance encounters and a formal meeting to
brief him on the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA). Seck
trusts but will verify Senegal's electoral process; plans to
win the February election in part by cutting into Wade's
religious support; wants a presidential cabinet with strong
and independent ministers; questions Wade's MCA priorities;
and believes national economic development should begin by
rebuilding and reintegrating the Casamance. END SUMMARY.

JUST LISTENIN', NOT CAMPAIGNIN'
--------------

2. (C) Since formal campaigning for the February 25
presidential and parliamentary elections is limited to less
than a month, Seck will crisscross the country to "test
people's priorities" and build his political organization.
Only three days after coming back from several months in
Paris, he headed south for a week's stay in the still
war-weary Casamance. Wade loyalists in Ziguinchor gave him
"48 hours to leave," and forbade him to go to outlying towns.
He riposted by publicly holding the state responsible for
his safety, but said he would also take appropriate measures,
meaning his platoon of beefy and efficient bodyguards. Seck
ended up going where he wanted, and spent evenings and Sunday
morning lounging at a riverside hotel where our traveling
Political Counselor, Defense Attache and Senegalese political

specialist ran into him.

I'LL APPOINT MINISTERS WITH FULL ROLODEXES!
--------------

3. (C) At an impromptu September 29 post-dinner dockside
chat on the Casamance River, Seck voiced ongoing affection
for his old mentor. Wade was "well-intentioned in the
beginning," a true representative of the generation that
fought for independence and laid a basis for a proud and
sovereign Senegal. Unfortunately, after building some basic
infrastructure, Wade and his contemporaries have turned into
"talkers rather than doers," incapable of modern leadership
in a sophisticated world marketplace. Wade is erratic by
nature, especially as he grows older, but he also hurt
himself by choosing terrible staff, rejecting dissenting
opinions, listening to self-interested pressure from his
family -- and especially from son Karim. He has, quite
simply, lost sight of people's needs and created a "crisis of
confidence."


4. (C) Seck told us his polls showed he had the best chance
to defeat Wade at elections. A coalition would be necessary
to beat Wade in the run-off (if there is one),but as both
agent of the new generation and reformer, he shares goals and
methods with Socialist Party leader Tanor Dieng: "I get along
with Tanor." His policy priorities will be health, good
governance and fair distribution of resources. For the young
urban poor, he will take his slogan from hip hop music: "Idy
job et chop!" or "Idy for jobs and food."


5. (C) Wade thinks he can buy unconditional support from
locally powerful marabouts, but he is wrong. Seck's own
Tidjane Brotherhood is alienated by Wade's public
genuflection to the rival Mouride Brotherhood Khalif, and
Wade's attempts to curry the favor of militia-backed Islamic
activists (Moustarchidines, Kara MBacke, Bethio Thioune) is
simple "political-religious commerce." As for Wade's
Mourides, it is true the Khalif "always formally backs the
incumbent, but he sometimes gives underground instructions."
(A week later, events seemed to prove Seck right when the
Khalif's son received him warmly in the Mouride capital of
Touba and declared "all those who have betrayed the founder
of Mouridism will lose power.")


6. (C) Somewhat surprisingly, given the cynicism we have
heard from his allies and staff, Seck on September 29 voiced
full confidence in the electoral system which, "despite
problems, will work fairly." It is true, though, that the
new electoral system and voter registration list may not be
"operational" in time, and it may therefore be necessary to
retain the current voter list. The key to fair elections and
vote counts will be to have electoral watchdogs on the

DAKAR 00002479 002.2 OF 003


ground. Nationwide, Seck has "identified 40,000 poll
watchers from all segments of society," whom he is equipping
with cell phones that can photograph and document any fraud.
He will receive election results "live," as polling stations
close, and be able instantly to judge the degree of fraud.
"If it's in the one or two percent range, we'll probably
tolerate it ... but beyond that, we'll oppose the coup de
force."


7. (C) Seck said he is committed to being president. If he
loses in 2007, he'll run again in 2012, and in 2017, and in
2022, at which time he will retire as a candidate. He
expects, though, to win in 2007, and his first priority will
be to end the drift, indecision, incompetence and isolation
he sees in Wade's cabinet. He wants strong, independent
ministers who will be able to challenge the president's
judgments and who bring to government more than they expect
to gain from it: "I'll want people who know how to network
internationally, people with bulging carnets d'adresses
(rolodexes)."

THE CASAMANCE: THE PEACE PROCESS
--------------

8. (C) In a second impromptu chat, a hot and lazy late
Sunday morning on the balcony of Ziguinchor's riverside
hotel, Seck told the Political Counselor he had purposely
taken the overnight boat from Dakar, the "Willis," to talk
with ordinary Casamancais. Young men and women, he said,
have impressed upon him that they were returning from Dakar
as new university graduates or with technical or commercial
skills, but that their prospects in the Casamance are nil.
They are demanding Dakar share resources and invest in the
South. Some had spoken to him of cousins who, despite the
peace process, were turning to the rebellion for jobs. Rebel
recalcitrant Salif Sadio was said to be offering a kind of
franchise deal: his group would feed and lodge a new rebel
for several weeks while he figured out how to live off the
land. That, Seck stressed, cannot be allowed to continue,
and he is talking to younger leaders of the rebellion's
political wing to seek solutions.


9. (C) The Casamance must, Seck went on, be linked by
reliable transportation routes to the north; Ziguinchor must
be made into a transit and commercial center, and already
pacified towns and villages must be developed even in the
absence of a definitive peace pact. These areas of renewed
economic activity will in time spread outward and attract
rebels back from the bush. The first step is to obtain at
least two more boats, and they must, unlike the Willis, be
capable of carrying freight. Second, real and unwavering
diplomatic pressure must be put on The Gambia to finally
allow construction of a bridge across the Gambia River.
Third, the Casamance River has to be dredged and the
Ziguinchor port modernized to compete with Banjul as a
transshipment point for trade from Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau,
Guinea and even Mali's overland commerce. His policy as
Prime Minister had been to develop Senegal "one or two cities
at a time," and as president, he would urge donors to
redirect assistance first to Ziguinchor.

THE CASAMANCE: DEMINING
--------------

10. (C) The Defense Attache joined the conversation at this
point, and Seck initiated a separate discussion of mine
removal, which he sees as a key component to the peace
process and reconstruction. He asked the nature of U.S.
involvement in demining, and we explained the distinction
between operational and humanitarian demining. He asked to
what degree the U.S. was involved, and we told him the U.S.
had donated USD 96 thousand in FY06 monies via Handicapped
International for two humanitarian demining activities: Mine
Risk Education and Victims Assistance. He stressed that
Casamancais need to see mines being taken out of the ground
and to enjoy the economic benefits of mine-free orchards and
farm roads. We said there has been some progress, including
the August signing of a decree creating a National Mine
Action Commission and calling for a National Mine Action
Center in Ziguinchor, but that we also need a signed peace
accord.


11. (C) Seck objected that he sees no need for a formal
peace agreement; what is urgent is actively building and
expanding economic opportunity, which in turn would lead to
peace. He cited countries, including Cambodia and Bosnia,
where demining had been undertaken wherever security allowed
it. Why should Senegal, he asked, be any different?
Finally, he asked for a detailed and if possible
authoritative map of the areas where mines had been laid. We
referred him to Handicap International, and two weeks later

DAKAR 00002479 003.2 OF 003


delivered to him the HI materials and maps. While grateful
for the information, he both voiced and showed disappointment
to learn that demining must follow a formal peace pact, and
that the actual demining process could take several years.

MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE ACCOUNT
--------------

12. (C) Charge, Economic and Political Counselors called on
Seck October 11 at his Dakar home to brief on the Millennium
Challenge Account. He had by that time finished his
Casamance tour and delayed a visit to the North amidst
reports that the ruling Senegalese Democratic Party was
organizing to disrupt his trip. He was also coping with a
finding by the Prime Minister and Interior Minister that Seck
could not use the name "Rewmi" or "the country" for his new
political party, a name chosen, our Senegalese Political
Assistant assures us, because it is charged with emotion,
patriotism and a sense of care for the common good. Freedom
of movement is essential to a democracy, he fumed; he will
continue his fact-finding travels and will counter, though he
will not initiate, any violence. His affection for Wade
seems to be fading: "Wade is the author of attacks on my home
(in 2005),and of the beating of (another young political
activist) Talla Sylla." The latest threats are being made,
he argued, because the Government is "aware of the political
facts on the ground," which do not favor Wade.


13. (C) The Princeton econometrics-educated Seck then turned
to the MCA, and showed he was well briefed both in general
and on Senegal's project proposal in particular. He
questioned Wade's ability and willingness to be a productive
and accountable partner, and voiced concern over the process
of displacing tenants at the site, land ownership
transparency, and the possibility of open and competitive
tendering for managing partners, suppliers and construction
firms. He questioned whether the project's profitability and
economic growth potential could meet expectations.


14. (C) Seck asked whether the current project at Diamniadio
is the best use of a significant level of development
assistance. There may be a disconnect, he suggested, between
current U.S. aid programs of about USD 55 million for the
entire country, and a projected investment of USD 500 million
for a single project. He said the site is essentially a
"Dakar project," since Dakar would grow to encompass it
within 25 years. Further, the project would draw even more
migrants from the Casamance and further deepen its brain
drain and economic woes. The Charge stressed that the MCA
project included multiple provisions to assure accountability
and transparency, and that Diamniadio could significantly
enhance economic growth and reduce poverty, but Seck
recommended instead investment in the Casamance.

COMMENT
--------------

15. (C) Seck remains as determined as ever to be president,
and he sees his informal national surveys and enthusiastic
reception in the Casamance as proof that he has a chance to
finish first or second in the election's initial round.
Further, he sees himself as the advance guard of a reform
generation that includes Socialist Party leader and fellow
reformer Tanor Dieng, and hints strongly that they can form
the nucleus of a coalition that will beat Wade in the
run-off. He also says he wants this election, unlike most in
Senegal, to turn on issues rather than personalities.


16. (C) Even his enemies concede that Seck has a "deeply
structured and disciplined mind" (reftel). He is a focused
workhorse, who is deeply religious (to the point that his
citing of the Koran in times of distress annoys even some
moderate Muslims),and, as his long-time service to Wade
shows, has an instinct for both the groin and the jugular.
What he has never demonstrated is the charisma to bring
crowds along with him. Whether by calculation or by chance,
he has timed his return from Paris well: a population
exhausted by energy shortages, joblessness, proof of judicial
corruption, teacher and student discontent in schools and
university, chaotic traffic, and a general impression of
executive mismanagement, are receptive to calls for change.
END COMMENT.
JACKSON