Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAKAR239
2006-02-01 19:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:
GUINEA-BISSAU: STILL CLINGING TO "FRAGILE STATE"
how-toVZCZCXRO9073 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHDK #0239/01 0321905 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 011905Z FEB 06 FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4096 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0156 RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE PRIORITY 0844 RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0705 RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA PRIORITY 0361 RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO PRIORITY 0392 RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000239
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD, G/TIP, PM/PPA, AND INR/AA
AID/W FOR AFR/WA
TREASURY FOR SONIA RENANDO
ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016
TAGS: PINS EAID PGOV PHUM SNAR BR PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: STILL CLINGING TO "FRAGILE STATE"
STATUS
REF: A. DAKAR 0168
B. DAKAR 0154
Classified By: CDA ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D),
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000239
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD, G/TIP, PM/PPA, AND INR/AA
AID/W FOR AFR/WA
TREASURY FOR SONIA RENANDO
ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016
TAGS: PINS EAID PGOV PHUM SNAR BR PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: STILL CLINGING TO "FRAGILE STATE"
STATUS
REF: A. DAKAR 0168
B. DAKAR 0154
Classified By: CDA ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D),
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (U) President Joao Bernardo &Nino8 Viera,s government
has finally presented its program to the National Assembly,
which effectively has until early March to approve or
disapprove it. The Supreme Court ruled in Vieira,s favor on
the appointment of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, which a
faction of his own PAIGC continues to denounce as
unconstitutional. Civil society is focused on an array of
rights and development issues and relies heavily on foreign
assistance. Meanwhile, the issue of drugs and security
sector reform are taking center stage. During his first
visit to Bissau, PolOff emphasized the need for compromise to
end the political standoff and the need for security sector
reform. END SUMMARY.
FIFTEEN DAYS OF WAITING ...
--------------
2. (C) In an important victory for President Vieira, the
Supreme Court ruled that his dismissal of Prime Minister and
political rival Carlos Domingos Gomes Junior was not
unconstitutional. His selection of Aristides Gomes for the
post will stand despite complaints from the divided African
Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde
(PAIGC). The next big test for his government is the
National Popular Assembly,s (ANP,s) vote on the government
program, which was presented January 31. The Assembly, which
is currently in session, has 15 days to approve or return the
budget for changes. If changes are requested, the process
repeats itself and if not approved the second time, the ANP
must dissolve, and the Government must call new elections.
Assembly Vice President Mamadu Iaia Djalo, who ran against
Vieira in the presidential election and is in the PAIGC
faction that does not support him, told us the program
probably would be approved. He continued, though, to grouse
that constitutional order was not followed in the appointment
of the Prime Minister.
3. (C) Issues consistently raised by GOGB officials and the
diplomatic corps included pleas for the United States to
re-open its embassy; growing concern over narcotics
trafficking from Colombia through Guinea-Bissau en route to
Europe; and the primacy of security sector reform in the
government,s agenda. On instituting a permanent U.S.
presence in country, the widely-held opinion is that no donor
country will take Guinea-Bissau seriously until the Americans
do. The Brazilian Charge declared, &This is as stable as it
gets.8
... AS CIVIL SOCIETY SOLDIERS ON
--------------
4. (U) Poloff visited several recipients of U.S. foreign
assistance, including two former Special Self-Help Fund
projects (an orphanage and a school),a current Democracy and
Human Rights Fund recipient that is bolstering civil legal
procedures, and HIV/AIDS projects with Sant, Egidio and the
Guinea-Bissau Social Marketing Association (AGMS),which are
both funded by USAID,s West Africa Regional Program. The
impact of these projects, some of which also receive European
funding, is impressive. Structures built with U.S.
assistance stand out as a few shining beacons of progress
amid the dust and dead cars that define Bissau,s landscape.
Project leaders and other civil society members with whom
Poloff met are concerned about women,s rights and political
participation, trafficking of children for forced begging,
and providing basic health care and education, especially in
remote regions of the country that have little or no access
to either.
COMMENT
--------------
DAKAR 00000239 002 OF 002
5. (SBU) If the government,s program is approved by the
National Assembly, there is hope for at least several more
months of stability, which could pave the way for some
political detente. President Vieira is wisely highlighting
security sector reform in his agenda and getting buy-in from
the military. His government has requested U.S. assistance
on counternarcotics (Ref A) and staged a crack-down on
organized crime, arresting hundreds in the city of Gabu near
the Guinean border at the end of January. END COMMENT.
JACKSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD, G/TIP, PM/PPA, AND INR/AA
AID/W FOR AFR/WA
TREASURY FOR SONIA RENANDO
ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016
TAGS: PINS EAID PGOV PHUM SNAR BR PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: STILL CLINGING TO "FRAGILE STATE"
STATUS
REF: A. DAKAR 0168
B. DAKAR 0154
Classified By: CDA ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D),
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (U) President Joao Bernardo &Nino8 Viera,s government
has finally presented its program to the National Assembly,
which effectively has until early March to approve or
disapprove it. The Supreme Court ruled in Vieira,s favor on
the appointment of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, which a
faction of his own PAIGC continues to denounce as
unconstitutional. Civil society is focused on an array of
rights and development issues and relies heavily on foreign
assistance. Meanwhile, the issue of drugs and security
sector reform are taking center stage. During his first
visit to Bissau, PolOff emphasized the need for compromise to
end the political standoff and the need for security sector
reform. END SUMMARY.
FIFTEEN DAYS OF WAITING ...
--------------
2. (C) In an important victory for President Vieira, the
Supreme Court ruled that his dismissal of Prime Minister and
political rival Carlos Domingos Gomes Junior was not
unconstitutional. His selection of Aristides Gomes for the
post will stand despite complaints from the divided African
Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde
(PAIGC). The next big test for his government is the
National Popular Assembly,s (ANP,s) vote on the government
program, which was presented January 31. The Assembly, which
is currently in session, has 15 days to approve or return the
budget for changes. If changes are requested, the process
repeats itself and if not approved the second time, the ANP
must dissolve, and the Government must call new elections.
Assembly Vice President Mamadu Iaia Djalo, who ran against
Vieira in the presidential election and is in the PAIGC
faction that does not support him, told us the program
probably would be approved. He continued, though, to grouse
that constitutional order was not followed in the appointment
of the Prime Minister.
3. (C) Issues consistently raised by GOGB officials and the
diplomatic corps included pleas for the United States to
re-open its embassy; growing concern over narcotics
trafficking from Colombia through Guinea-Bissau en route to
Europe; and the primacy of security sector reform in the
government,s agenda. On instituting a permanent U.S.
presence in country, the widely-held opinion is that no donor
country will take Guinea-Bissau seriously until the Americans
do. The Brazilian Charge declared, &This is as stable as it
gets.8
... AS CIVIL SOCIETY SOLDIERS ON
--------------
4. (U) Poloff visited several recipients of U.S. foreign
assistance, including two former Special Self-Help Fund
projects (an orphanage and a school),a current Democracy and
Human Rights Fund recipient that is bolstering civil legal
procedures, and HIV/AIDS projects with Sant, Egidio and the
Guinea-Bissau Social Marketing Association (AGMS),which are
both funded by USAID,s West Africa Regional Program. The
impact of these projects, some of which also receive European
funding, is impressive. Structures built with U.S.
assistance stand out as a few shining beacons of progress
amid the dust and dead cars that define Bissau,s landscape.
Project leaders and other civil society members with whom
Poloff met are concerned about women,s rights and political
participation, trafficking of children for forced begging,
and providing basic health care and education, especially in
remote regions of the country that have little or no access
to either.
COMMENT
--------------
DAKAR 00000239 002 OF 002
5. (SBU) If the government,s program is approved by the
National Assembly, there is hope for at least several more
months of stability, which could pave the way for some
political detente. President Vieira is wisely highlighting
security sector reform in his agenda and getting buy-in from
the military. His government has requested U.S. assistance
on counternarcotics (Ref A) and staged a crack-down on
organized crime, arresting hundreds in the city of Gabu near
the Guinean border at the end of January. END COMMENT.
JACKSON