GUINEA-BISSAU: RULE OF LAW RESOLVES TENSE SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002246

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AAA, INL/AAE AND S/P
ACCRA FOR USAID/WA
LONDON FOR POL - AFRICA WATCHER
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL KISL MARR PU SG
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: RULE OF LAW RESOLVES TENSE SECURITY
THREATS; MFDC STILL PROCURING ARMS AND SEEKING HAVEN


Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Two military officers were arrested August 28 for
plotting to murder the Armed Forces Chief but were
subsequently released for lack of evidence. In a separate
incident reflecting the army's inability to control national
territory, a Senegalese Movement of the Casamance Democratic
Forces (MFDC) faction still operating in Guinea-Bissau moved
arms and established bases despite GOGB claims that they were
all expelled during the border conflict earlier this year.
Guinea-Bissau,s armed forces are still stable, but all hopes
for reform are pinned on the donor,s round table in
November. Disappointing results could lead to instability.
END SUMMARY.

PLOTTING TO MURDER THE ARMED FORCES CHIEF?
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2. (U) Marine Commodore Lamine Sanha and Lt. Col. Almami
Alan Camara were arrested and released five days later on
allegations of plotting the murder of Armed Forces Chief
Major General Batista Tagme Na Waie. A single low ranking
soldier accused the two men of plotting against Tagme and the
court said there was not enough evidence to hold them. Tagme
took the threat seriously since his predecessor, General
Verissimo Correia Seabra, was murdered by soldiers in 2004
for delays in salary payment.


3. (C) After their release from detention, the two men told
the press they were innocent victims of Tagme,s plot to move
against Muslims in the armed forces and that they would sue
him for maligning their character. They claimed Tagme
targeted them because they were close to deceased General
Ansumane Mane and of the same ethnic group (Mandinka).
UNOGBIS, defense attache Col. Ferreira told PolOff that
Sanha and Camara were political dissidents and that he and
his colleagues have seen no evidence of prejudice against
Muslims or Mandinkas in the armed forces. Aphonso Te,
advisor to the Prime Minister and former military officer,
agrees with Ferreira that the two have no following in the
armed forces and do not represent a serious threat to
stability or Tagme. Ferriera believes the most significant
part of this story is that it played out in court under the
rule of law.

MFDC REBELS STILL IN GUINEA-BISSAU
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4. (U) Despite GOGB claims that its territory is now
MFDC-free since the military campaign along the Senegalese
border in March/April this year, two recent incidents brought
that claim into question. In Puerto Bandim in Bissau on
Sept. 7, five men were arrested for transporting arms
intended for a newly-arrived group of MFDC rebels. The owner
of the canoe who was among those arrested, Maximo Senguibo,
told the press the arms were destined for Comandante Vie,s
men located in Varela, 200 kmnorthwest of Bissau. The
materiel, which was no well cared for, included 26 light
machine guns, 0 AK-47 assault rifles, 4 RPG rocket
launchers, nd about 100 grenades.


5. (C) The MFDC is not ust storing weapons in Guinea-Bissau
but is alsoreportedly building new bases. Director of
de-mning NGO Humaid, former U.S. Ambassador John Blacken
(protect),told PolOff that an MFDC faction tha assisted the
Bissau-Guinean military in expelling the Salif Sadio faction
from its territory has now set up bases near the border with
Senegal. The military has not allowed Blacken's organization
access to conduct de-mining surveys in the area about 11 km.
west of Sao Domingos, near the location of the deadliest
single incident in the spring conflict when a civilian
passenger bus hit a mine causing 11 deaths and more injuries.
Blacken said the rebel bases are extremely remote, not
accessible by any road, and a closely held secret in the
military.

COMMENT
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6. (C) The arrest and subsequent release of Sanha and Camara
and arrest of five arms smugglers are positive signs that
Guinea-Bissau is relying more on the rule of law despite its

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weak judiciary and lack of prisons. The military remains
relatively stable, but observers believe reform efforts have
stagnated. There is not yet a final plan for security sector
reform for the November 7-8 donor,s round table in Geneva,
but the British government is making one last effort to
assist in formulating a plan by sending experts to Bissau the
week of September 25. Tagme and others are pinning their
hopes on raising enough in donations to begin reform in
earnest and that expectation is probably helping keep the lid
on discontent over slow salary payments and poor conditions
in the barracks. If the result is disappointing, continued
stability will be less certain. END COMMENT.
JACOBS