MORE CANDIDACIES AND UNANSWERED QUESTIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 002001

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, DRL/AE, AF/RSA, AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2011
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SG
SUBJECT: MORE CANDIDACIES AND UNANSWERED QUESTIONS IN
SENEGAL'S ELECTIONS

REF: DAKAR 01787

Classified By: Ambassador Janice L. Jacobs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) President Wade made official his intent to run for
the presidency in 2007, as did Ousmane Kane, an international
lawyer residing in New York, and Landing Savane, head of the
AJ/PADS party. The Interior Ministry said that more than 75
percent of the cards have been produced for those who have
registered to vote but extended voter registration until
August 31. At the same time, the National Autonomous
Electoral Commission (CENA) responded to opposition charges
that some voter registration cards had been improperly
withdrawn by saying the perpetrators had been brought to
justice and that there were no further problems with
registrations. After months of negotiations between the
Interior Ministry and various political parties, a report was
issued reviewing the electoral code, a report that, like the
rest of the electoral process here, leaves many questions
unanswered. END SUMMARY.

ANNOUNCING THEIR INTENT TO RUN
--------------

2. (U) Candidates are slowly but surely throwing their hat
into the electoral ring. Following former Prime Minister
Idrissa Seck's lead, President Wade officially announced he
would seek a second term. Ousmane Kane, a relative unknown
among Senegalese, made public his intention to run as an
independent candidate. Kane has no political experience but
has offered a platform based on restoring good governance and
fighting corruption, along with creating the juridical and
fiscal environment needed to attract investment. The most
recent person to announce candidacy is Landing Savane, who
added that despite running against Wade, his party intends to
continue its alliance with the PDS as part of the
"alternance."

VOTER REGISTRATION EXTENDED
--------------

3. (U) Interior Minister Ngom said that more than 3.4
million voter registration cards have been printed. There
are currently more than 4.4 million registered voters, and
Ngom predicted that the final figure will exceed 5 million.
He also noted that more than 65,000 cards are being printed
each day, although he added they will soon be printing 80,000
cards per day. On July 26, Ngom also declared that the
deadline for registrations had been extended until August 31.

CHARGES OF WITHHELD CARDS AND MULTIPLE REGISTRATIONS
-------------- --------------

4. (C) In an unusual public exchange between the CENA and
opposition parties, the opposition accused the CENA of
failing to take action against what they claimed were
concerted efforts to withhold some voter registration cards,
rather than give them to voters. Opposition party members
also expressed concern that there were multiple
registrations, casting doubt on the voter registration
process. The CENA initially responded that those agents
determined to be responsible for withdrawing or withholding
cards had been arrested and charged. Later, however, the
CENA issued statements saying there was no proof of any cards
being withdrawn. (NOTE: The Embassy has only learned of less
than 100 attempts at multiple registration, and we understand
that fingerprints detected and prevented the multiple
registrations. END NOTE.)


5. (U) The press has reported arrests of those accused to
have registered multiple times. Police recently arrested a
person who attempted to register several times in Pikine but
whose family claims he is mentally ill. The person in charge
of registration for the district of Kahone claimed he spent
three weeks in prison after refusing to register one hundred
Guinean nationals at the urging of Kahone's Mayor.

CAN ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE AS PLANNED?
--------------

6. (C) Rumors abound that the President wants to postpone
the elections until 2009. Former head of the PDS Youth Fund
Ibrahima Niang (who is also Former Prime Minister Idrissa
Seck's cousin) said he would be shocked if the elections took
place in February. He attempted to engage PolOff in a debate
as to whether it would be better to go to elections that, in
his mind, would be assuredly flawed because of insufficient
time to fix problems starting to appear or to postpone the
elections, giving all sides more time to prepare. He claimed
opposition members have begun talking to Wade about delaying
the elections. PDS member Khalifa Mboup admitted the PDS is

DAKAR 00002001 002 OF 003


not yet prepared for elections. He theorized Wade may want
to delay the elections for another reason -- to keep the
opposition from launching full-scale campaigns in the rural
areas, Wade's base of support in the 2000 elections.


7. (C) Serigne Mbaye Thiam, a leading member of the
Socialist Party, told us the opposition thinks the Government
will not be ready for the elections to take place in 2007 and
questioned whether the elections would be held on time. He
brought up another technical snafu that has occurred with the
registration process. Approximately 18,000 voters cards have
been rejected because of blurred photos or other problems.
The people to whom those cards belong have not been told of
the rejections and will not know until September, when their
cards will be issued. He also mentioned the logistical
issues related to revising the electoral code.

BRINGING THE ELECTORAL CODE UP TO DATE
--------------

8. (U) Discussions over revising the electoral code began in
April 2005. On August 1, 2006, the commission responsible
for revising the electoral code and bringing it into
compliance with current procedures submitted its final report
to the GOS. The report listed areas of disagreement between
the PDS and opposition parties. These include apportionment
of legislative seats, marking electoral cards once
individuals have voted, and the use of a single (versus
multiple) ballot(s).


9. (U) The PDS reportedly wants to boost the number of
Deputies in the National Assembly to 140 (20 more than
currently in the Assembly). The opposition, however, demands
that 80 of those seats be from the proportional lists,
favoring small parties, and the remaining 60 from
Departmental lists decided in second round elections (rather
than the first-past-the-post system favored by the PDS),
which would encourage the development of small party
coalitions.


10. (U) The other major point of contention is determining
if someone has voted. In past elections, paper electoral
cards were marked with a stamp to show that a person has
voted. The electoral cards being issued now are plastic, but
the question remains as to how know if someone has already
cast his or her vote. The opposition is urging the use of an
invisible mark on voters, hands that could be detected with
ultraviolet light.


11. (C) The third major issue in revising the code deals
with the use of a single or multiple ballot(s). Currently,
each candidate has his own ballot. The opposition wants to
have a single ballot now, listing every candidate on the same
sheet. Khalifa Mboup argued this could cause confusion and
lead candidates to argue over the clarity of their photos on
the ballot.

OTHER UNRESOLVED ISSUES
--------------

12. (C) Controversy over the decision to give the vote to
military and security forces remains unabated. The GOS has
said military and security forces will cast their votes one
week before the rest of the populace. According to Serigne
Mbaye Thiam, opposition parties do not support this decision
and have no confidence that the president of tribunals in
each of the Departments where forces will vote will secure
their votes for the week prior to the elections.


13. (C) Thiam also talked about the issue of media coverage,
saying equal access to the media for all parties is a key
condition for transparent elections. Wade has still
nominated no one to the regulatory body established to
replace the widely criticized HCA and bring order to the
media. Moreover, current regulations require RTS, the
government television channel, to air opposing positions via
a debate format every 15 days; but that has yet to take place.

COMMENT
--------------

14. (C) The pre-election period continues to be marked by
uncertainty. The one idea that everyone seems to agree on is
that Wade's strategy is to keep everyone guessing. Rumors
have ranged from the notion that Wade is setting up his son,
Karim, to inherit power from Wade to saying Idrissa Seck is
negotiating a return to Wade's fold. Whatever Wade's goal
could be, the result is an increasingly charged atmosphere.
One opposition leader told us if Wade tries to maintain his
grip on power by circumventing the electoral process, the
opposition will do everything in its power to render the
country ungovernable. Rumors notwithstanding, the Government

DAKAR 00002001 003 OF 003


appears determined to proceed with the polls on February 25,
2007, and could be ready (reftel). END COMMENT.
JACOBS