GUINEA-BISSAU: THE LIGHTS ARE BACK ON, BUT WHERE'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA
ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL KDEM BR FR GV SG PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: THE LIGHTS ARE BACK ON, BUT WHERE'S
THE POWER?

REF: 05 DAKAR 3179 (NOTAL)

Classified By: CDA ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMMARY
--------------

1. (C) The Vieira/Aristides Gomes Government continues to
develop its program, and neither the Popular National
Assembly (ANP) nor the Supreme Court seems anxious to bring
the Government down. The African Party for the Independence
of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) continues to argue
for a national unity government and says that it will not
cooperate, but the divisions within the largest party are out
in the open. Former President Malam Bacai Sanha believes
that France is playing an unhelpful role. For its part, the
PRC donated USD 3 million to rehabilitate military barracks
and facilities and to build a regional hospital in Canchungo.
Meanwhile, NDI has started work with parliamentarians and
civil society, and Embassy Dakar,s new Guinea-Bissau
Watcher, Gregory Holliday, has arrived. After seven years,
the Government has restored electricity to Bissau. END
SUMMARY.

ELECTRICITY RESTORED
--------------

2. (U) Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, government continues
to prepare its program and budget, as it shows
Bissau-Guineans that it can make a difference in their lives.
Perhaps fearing that Liberian President Ellen
Johnson-Sirleaf,s plans for Monrovia would leave Bissau as
the only non-electrified African capital, the Gomes
Government has restored electricity to Bissau after seven
years of darkness.

BUT WHERE,S THE POWER?
--------------

3. (U) Meanwhile, the National Popular Assembly (ANP) and
the Supreme Court each wait for the other to decide whether
or not to bring the Government down. Although the Supreme
Court was to have ruled on the legitimacy of the Gomes
Government by mid-December, it has yet to announce a
decision. For its part, the ANP seems to be in no hurry to
schedule a budget/confidence vote, with the earliest such
vote now likely in early February and no one is sure of the
outcome.


4. (C) What is certain is the PAIGC,s undying hostility for
President Joao Bernardo &Nino8 Vieira and Aristides Gomes.
On January 10, the PAIGC released a statement making its
opposition to the Government abundantly clear. (COMMENT:
Since defeated PAIGC presidential candidate Malam Bacai Sanha
was in Spain when the PAIGC acted, it appears that former
Prime Minister Carlos Domingos Gomes, Junior, continues to
lead the hard liners, and the PAIGC,s divisions are out in
the open. END COMMENT.)


5. (C) In recent embassy meetings with Bacai, he had taken a
somewhat softer line. We urged reconciliation and a focus on
the future, and he said he would be willing to meet with
Vieira again. However, he accused Vieira of corruption and
narcotics trafficking (septel).

FOREIGN AFFAIRS
--------------

6. (C) Bacai also had some interesting points to make on
foreign policy. Bacai asserted that Portugal has no strategy
for Guinea-Bissau. He also said that France is working
through its &proxies, Guinea and Senegal8 to ensure that
the development of Guinea-Bissau,s petroleum reserves is
done by French companies. Bacai stated that he would like to
visit the United States in May, and Charge told him that we
would be pleased to arrange some appointments for him in
Washington.


7. (U) On January 17, Chinese Ambassador Tian Guangfeng and
Secretary of State for International Cooperation Tibna Sambe

SIPDIS
Nawana signed a USD 3 million to rehabilitate military
barracks and other military installations as well as to build
a regional hospital in Canchungo.
COMMENT

DAKAR 00000154 002 OF 002


--------------

8. (C) Bacai may be correct that Portugal lacks a coherent
strategy for Guinea-Bissau, but China seems to have one. The
Mission does not believe that either Guinea or Senegal is
acting on France,s behalf in Guinea-Bissau. While the
political feuding in Bissau continues, the Gomes Government
is taking action to build popular support. At this point, it
seems likely that the ANP will vote on the government,s
budget and program )- essentially a confidence vote )-
before the Supreme Court tackles the legitimacy issue.
However, neither institution appears to want to be blamed for
causing the Government to fall. The National Democratic
Institute has started its parliamentary training program,
working from the Brazilian Embassy in Bissau, and our new
Guinea-Bissau Watcher, Gregory Holliday, has assumed his new
duties. END COMMENT.
JACKSON