Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DAKAR1149
2006-05-15 15:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:  

THERE'S TALK OF ANOTHER ELECTION POSTPONEMENT, BUT

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PINS PINR SG 
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VZCZCXRO4987
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1149/01 1351533
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151533Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5111
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 001149 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS PINR SG
SUBJECT: THERE'S TALK OF ANOTHER ELECTION POSTPONEMENT, BUT
WADE PRESSES AHEAD WITH PREPARATIONS

REF: A. DAKAR 1011


B. DAKAR 0817

C. DAKAR 0681

D. DAKAR 0565

E. 05 DAKAR 1563

Classified By: Political Counselor Roy L. Whitaker for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 001149

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS PINR SG
SUBJECT: THERE'S TALK OF ANOTHER ELECTION POSTPONEMENT, BUT
WADE PRESSES AHEAD WITH PREPARATIONS

REF: A. DAKAR 1011


B. DAKAR 0817

C. DAKAR 0681

D. DAKAR 0565

E. 05 DAKAR 1563

Classified By: Political Counselor Roy L. Whitaker for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Some in the ruling Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS)
say poor logistics will require technical postponement of the
February presidential and parliamentary elections to June
2007, past expiration of Wade's constitutional term. We have
told them we would find that unacceptable. The opposition
may propose Wade stay in office until 2009 in return for a
national unity cabinet and guarantees of a transparent
election. Wade, meanwhile, appears intent on engineering
electoral victory: he is micromanaging PDS factional spats
and would defy tradition by giving the security forces the
vote. Ex-Prime Minister and presidential candidate Idrissa
Seck has become all but invisible. END SUMMARY.

DARNED NEWFANGLED ELECTION TECHNOLOGY!
--------------

2. (C) We have reported (Refs A and B) that a new
computerized system to register voters has not worked well in
rural areas. As of early May, the national election
commission did not have enough computers nor vehicles to send
them to remote villages, while electricity shortages and lack
of portable generators made the few available computers
unusable. Election commission consultant Mouhamadou MBodj
assured us May 10, though, that sufficient equipment and
transport had been found, were now en route to rural
constituencies, and should allow widespread registration
before a new extended deadline of August 30.


3. (C) On May 11, Senegalese Radio and Television (RTS)
Administrative Director Mouhamadou Moutapha Dieng, who is
close to Interior Minister Ousmane NGom, said it was
"logistically impossible" to complete election preparations
by the end of Wade's presidential term in February. A
technical postponement of up to four months was necessary,
with elections likely just before late June's heavy rains.

We expressed surprise because on May 3 NGom had told the
Ambassador that preparations were going well, with over 3.5
million voters registered nationwide and over 1.5 million
registered in the greater Dakar area. NGom added that
600,000 new biometric identity and voter registration cards
had already been distributed. On May 12, we saw Dieng again
to voice strong concern about any delay beyond Wade's mandate.

AVIAN INFURIATION: THE OPPOSITION AND WADE'S FALCONS
-------------- --------------

4. (C) The opposition coalition was recently expanded, and
now includes ex-Socialist spokesman and Parliamentary Chair
Abdourahim Agne. Agne, arrested in 2005 for calling people
into the streets to remove Wade from power (Ref E),told us
over lunch the opposition feared Wade would "do anything"
including use violence to remain in power. Even if Wade were
reluctant, Agne said, hard-line "falcons" Justice Minister
Sheikh Tidjane Sy, Interior Minister NGom and Wade's palace
staff would press to use strong-arm measures. Since it was
unclear whether Wade would allow elections in 2007, and to
avert violent confrontation, the opposition was preparing to
respond to Wade's repeated calls for a national dialog and to
offer him a deal.


5. (C) Calling Wade old and tired, Agne said he did not
really wish to stay in power another five years. Rather, all
he wanted was to complete the large-scale construction
projects he has just begun, and, if Arab capitals allow it,
hold a Dakar summit of the Organization of the Islamic
Conferences. Agne says the opposition will thus propose a
deal allowing Wade to stay in office until 2009, and giving
him and his family immunity from prosecution. In return,
Wade would bring senior members of opposition into his
cabinet, with firmer guarantees of authority than he gave
them in 2000. This national unity government would then
establish transparent election ground rules.


6. (C) Sensing that Agne's proposed deal with Wade was his
own initiative, we checked it out with Ibrahima Sene, a major
labor movement figure and ally of Independent Labor Party
leader and key opposition strategist Amath Dansokho. Sene
agrees the falcons will not leave power readily and will push
Wade to postpone and in effect cancel 2007 elections. Wade
will need a major pretext for doing so, one based on major

DAKAR 00001149 002 OF 003


social instability. Sene thinks there are three situations
Wade will try to turn into such a pretext: renewed fighting
in the Casamance or the possibility of ethnic violence either
by Northern River Valley Toucouleur against resettled
Casamancais rebels, or by southern Peuhl against in-migrating
Mouride Baye Fall peanut farmers. A deal may well be
necessary to ease Wade out of the presidency, Sene assumes,
though he thinks a referendum may be necessary to legitimize
it.


7. (C) We have not yet been able to determine if major
opposition players Moustapha Niasse and the Socialists are on
board with any deal to prolong Wade's term. For the moment,
they appear preoccupied with another question: whether MP's
should leave the National Assembly on June 30, as they
believe the Constitution mandates, or remain until
parliamentary elections postponed from May 2005 are finally
held.

WADE APPEARS TO BE PREPARING HIS CAMPAIGN
--------------

8. (C) While his underlings and foes may be thinking of
putting elections off, Wade appears to be tweaking and
twisting law, custom and ruling Democratic Party of Senegal
(PDS) machinery to assure an effective campaign for 2007.


9. (C) We have reported on the PDS' sometimes almost
kaleidoscopic factionalization (20 internal "tendencies" in
one region alone). Prime Minister Macky Sall began in late
2005 to curb faction power and autonomy and restructure the
party, but he failed openly in Saint Louis and managed at
best elsewhere to paper over differences. Wade has now
dismissed and reversed Sall's efforts and asked him instead
to preside over a commission that will share posts among
"longtime militants, ... local notables, ... and new
militants from other parties." In a show of not totally
forlorn hope, though, Wade will allow his Prime Minister to
"pursue party renewal in all institutions where consensus
exists."


10. (C) At the same time, Wade is proposing to broaden the
vote by allowing the army, gendarmerie and police to vote.
This is a break from Senegalese (and French colonial)
tradition, and has predictably been roundly criticized by the
opposition. Wade probably predicts gendarmerie, police and
army officer corps will vote heavily for him, though this is
not certain, and some argue army enlistees will mirror the
population-at-large's multi-party diversity.


11. (SBU) In what may be a trial balloon, Wade has allowed
friendly media to speculate he will hold two electoral
rounds, but that the second round will include four rather
than two candidates. Some call this absurd and a patent
attempt to divide his key rivals' vote, and ask for any
examples of multiple candidate run-off elections elsewhere.

WADE'S NEMESIS SECK MAY TELECOMMUTE THE CAMPAIGN
-------------- ---

12. (C) Ex-Prime Miniter Idrissa Seck began his insurgent
campaign well with an enthusiastic early April turnout in
Kaolack. Things have not gone as smoothly since. Saying he
is still in the PDS, Seck rejected the calls by Kaolack
religious leader Mamoune Niasse to form a "third force."
Another potential ally, youth leader Talla Sylla, signaled to
us that he now intends to contest the election independently.
Finally, Seck cancelled a trip to Saint Louis, home to
several bitter PDS enemies, over concerns about threats to
his personal security. MP Awa Gueye Kebe told us Seck's
bodyguard was not enough; the gendarmerie was unwilling to
give effective protection; but Seck rejected her strong
recommendation to set up a personal militia. Instead, she
said, Seck may run his campaign from home or headquarters via
private radio and travel by surrogates. The strategy would
be to hold back, avoid being arrested and imprisoned again,
and mount a dramatic and decisive January campaign.


13. (C) There are signs he still hopes to reconcile with
Wade. His elder cousin, Alioune Badara Niang, torn between
family obligation to protect Idrissa and deep fealty to the
old friend and President whose watercolor image he displays
reverentially on his living room wall, is trying to bring the
two together. Niang, after looking at informal polls, sees
deep discontent with Wade but thinks Socialists are still
widely despised and the opposition coalition bereft of a good
candidate. He concludes Seck will finish first or second in
the first round and Wade third, at which point he will
persuade Wade to rein in the falcons and back Seck for
president. Seck, in return, would grant Wade and his family
members immunity from prosecution and allow him to retire in

DAKAR 00001149 003 OF 003


dignity.

MARABOUT FEARS OF VIOLENCE
--------------

14. (C) The Tidjane Brotherhood has long been critical of
Wade's closeness to the rival Mourides. They are also
increasingly fearful of social or political violence. Within
the last weeks, an influential Tidjane politician told us,
Tidjane spokesman Abdou Aziz Sy Junior urged the Mouride
Khalif in Touba to dissuade Wade from taking any provocative
political measures. The Mouride Khalif replied that he
"didn't follow politics all that closely," but of course
would do anything to encourage social peace.

COMMENT
--------------

15. (C) Many Senegalese are certain Wade, and especially the
hard-line and allegedly violence-prone "falcons" around him
"will do anything" to retain power. At the same time, and
somewhat inconsistently, some believe he seeks to stay in
office only long enough to leave public works projects as his
legacy; assure legal preconditions he and his family need to
retire in comfort and dignity; and, perhaps, to host an
Islamic summit in Dakar. To avoid violence and yet assure
Wade does not serve an entire second term, some in the
opposition want to offer him extension of his time in office
until 2009 and immunity from prosecution, in return for a
national unity government and guarantees of transparency when
elections are finally held.


16. (C) Unfortunately, the deal the opposition may offer
would mean further manipulation of the Constitution and
national political consensus. In late 2004, the
PDS-dominated Parliament passed a law amnestying political
crimes. Last year, Wade determined parliament should stay in
office beyond its constitutionally described term. Wade's
retention of power for another two years, even if approved by
referendum, would be a step back from the successful 2000
election, when a government that had been in power for 40
years opted to accept rejection in a free and fair election.
END COMMENT.


17. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar/.
JACOBS