RULING PAR PARTY WINS BIG, PRO-CHAVEZ LEFT LOSES BIG IN NA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CURACAO 000127

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL NA
SUBJECT: RULING PAR PARTY WINS BIG, PRO-CHAVEZ LEFT LOSES BIG IN NA
ELECTIONS



1. (U) The ruling PAR party led by its new leader Emily de
Jongh-Elhage had a dramatic win in Curacao's national elections
January 27 with over 25 percent of the vote, gaining five seats.
In a night of surprises Charles Cooper's MAN party jumped from
no seats in the last national election to three seats with over
18 percent of the Curacao vote and became the second largest
party. Coalition partner PNP kept its two seats and centrist
newcomer Forsa Korsou gained two seats. Elections on the other
islands resulted in few surprises except for the National
Alliance just edging out the Democratic Party in St. Maarten as
that island's largest party.


2. (U) The night's losers were Anthony Godett and his FOL party
and its island-level coalition partner PLKP led by Errol Cova.
Cova, who was pushed out of the government for his pro-Chavez,
anti-Dutch statements last May, received no seats while the FOL
received only two.

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Why did PAR Win and the FOL and PLKP Lose?
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3. (SBU) With the selection of Emily de Jongh-Elhage as party
leader the PAR set out and developed a positive campaign
focusing on good governance, crime, education and building a
unified strategy to deal with the island's problems as it moves
toward autonomy. She was a particularly strong campaigner with
a calm, common touch laying out her party's five point plan,
calling for unity and an end to the politics of confrontation.
Policies begun under PM Ys' government have also begun to show
fruit as the crime rate has declined. PAR was also helped by a
successful fund raising effort to run its campaign.


4. (SBU) Anthony Godett seemed incapable of getting his capaign
underway. Waiting to serve his ten-month jail term for
corruption, Goddett tried to use the old tactics of claiming to
be a victim of the Dutch "colonialists" and big business.
Sensing that the FOL was faltering in the last days of the
campaign he tried to use the "Goddett" name as a vote getter, by
claiming he was leading a political dynasty which would last for
centuries. The absurdity of the statement went too far, even
for some of his supporters. (His father led the riots in 1969
and founded the FOL.)

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Venezuela and Chavez
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5. (SBU) Venezuela and Chavez, while rarely raised directly in
the campaign, were important factors. As a coalition partner
with the FOL on the island level, the PLKP, led by former deputy
PM Errol Cova, simply did not gauge accurately how much the
electorate disliked his statements supporting Chavez and
lambasting the Dutch. From a kingmaker in previous governments,
his party suffered a serious defeat gaining just six percent of
the vote and no seats. For its part the FOL tried to distance
itself from Cova's support for Chavez, but simply were not
believed by the voters.


6. (SBU) The message given by the voters in this election can
be summed up as follows: No to Chavez; No to Confrontation; Yes
to autonomous status in the Kingdom; Yes to good governance and
sensible financial policy; and Yes to fighting crime and
cooperating with the Dutch. Most importantly, the voters set
the stage for what could be one of the more stable periods of
government in the Netherlands Antilles and Curacao as efforts
move forward to a new constitutional framework and autonomy for
Curacao and St. Maarten.

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PAR/PNP Coalition with MAN
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7. (SBU) Following the election both Emily de Jongh-Elhage and
Charles Cooper indicated interest in synchronizing governments
on the island and central levels. Synchronization means that
the coalition on the island level mirrors that of the central
level in order to coordinate policy initiatives. While PAR

CURACAO 00000127 002 OF 002


could easily form a government on the central level without MAN,
a coalition with MAN would provide the opportunity of forcing
changes in the island government. What will be at issue is to
what extent MAN will be able to curb its desires. Largely
succeeding due to popular disgust with FOL and PLKP as well as
to its solid performance in government on the island level, MAN
will have to gauge carefully how much it can get in a coalition
with PAR. However, Emily's previous work with Charles Cooper on
the island council leads to expectations that a deal can be able
to be worked out. Time, however, is of the essence for MAN.
With new constitutional arrangements due by July 2007, PAR may
well decide taking a few months to form a coalition with MAN is
not worth it. New party Forsa Korsou with its two seats is
interested in joining a coalition, and could give PAR and PNP
the additional strength.

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What does this election mean for the U.S.?
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8. (SBU) It was a clear repudiation of any thought that
Curacaoans have much sympathy for Venezuela and Chavez. While
there are substantial ties between the two countries, the
average Curacaoan considers his Venezuelan neighbor as pushy and
some even say "racist." The bombastic statements emanating from
Caracas over U.S. ship visits and the Forward Operating Location
in Curacao only reinforced this popular perception as seen in
this election. For the upcoming negotiations on the Isla
refinery in Curacao, Chavez's political card will be harder
play, particularly as rumors of U.S. firms' interest in the
refinery are stoked.


9. (SBU) While the exact outlines of the new government have
yet to be delineated, it is expected that it will continue and
enhance close cooperation with the United States, particularly
in the areas of counter-narcotics, counter-terrorism and border
security. We can expect as well that this PAR-led government
will be an advocate for good governance and will further embrace
globalization of its economy.
SORENSON