DANES WANT TO AVOID "TRAIN WRECK" ON TURKISH EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 001555

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL EUN TU CY DA
SUBJECT: DANES WANT TO AVOID "TRAIN WRECK" ON TURKISH EU
ACCESSION

REF: STATE 189542

Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Bill Mozdzierz, reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: Denmark agrees that the current row over
Turkish relations with Cyprus should not be allowed to result
in Turkey's exclusion from the EU accession process, Danish
MFA Director for EU Enlargement Lars Bo Moller declared to us
November 22, even as the Danish government maintains that
Turkey must bear some consequences for its failure to live up
to its obligations to the EU. Moller was skeptical about the
prospects for a negotiated solution in advance of the
December 14-15 European Council meeting, but indicated that
Denmark will work within the EU for a moderated response.
Danish officials continue to engage the parties in support of
the Finnish EU presidency's efforts, Moller reported,
observing that Greece seems to recognize the importance of
keeping Turkey in the accession process, and might even prove
helpful in restraining Nicosia. End summary.


2. (C) Like most EU member states, Moller explained, Denmark
wants to prevent the Turkey issue from dominating the
European Council meeting, where a more politicized approach
is all but certain. Unfortunately, he noted, the prospects
are not great for the Finns to succeed in the next few weeks
where so many others have failed. Moller observed that both
the Turks and the Cypriots have drawn red lines on the same
issue (Varosha),apparently precluding any agreement. Some
compromise on opening ports may yet be possible, he allowed,
and certainly the Danes have been encouraging the parties to
seize these remaining opportunities (most recently during
last week's meeting here between FM Per Stig Moller and
Turkish EU negotiator Ali Babacan),but it now appears
increasingly likely that the EU will have to decide on its
response to Turkish noncompliance.


3. (C) Moller suggested that the debate in the EU will center
on the number of acquis chapters to suspend, with member
state preferences running from the UK's three (the ones most
closely related to customs union) to perhaps all 35 in the
case of Cyprus. Many countries, Moller said, such as Germany
and Denmark, will be somewhere closer to the British
position, favoring suspension of a few additional chapters
but not so many as to force the Turks to conclude that the
overall process is in jeopardy. Moller indicated that his
government's conversations with the Cypriots suggest that
they understand the danger of provoking Ankara on one level,
but find the temptation to overplay the EU card simply too
strong to resist. Athens is more realistic, he remarked,
maintaining that the Greek government recognizes its
strategic interest in keeping Turkey engaged in the accession
process; Moller suggested that the Greeks may make the
difference in persuading Cyprus not to press this issue to
its limits.


4. (C) Danish officials are also keen to avoid a situation in
which Turkish PM Erdogan sits "fuming" in Ankara while EU
summit participants deliberate, Moller said, remarking that
the Turks might make matters worse by suggesting that Turkey
can do without the EU. Erdogan may even see some political
advantage in withdrawing from the process, Moller feared.


5. (C) Moller emphasized that Denmark will do what it can to
help moderate the EU's approach, maintaining that the Danish
government supports Turkey's accession despite many concerns
and the unpopularity of that position. It is in everyone's
interest to ensure that this situation not degenerate into a
"train wreck," he said. It is imperative, however, that
Turkey meet its obligations and demonstrate its readiness for
membership, Moller argued; likewise, the EU must show that it
will not accept sustained failure to adhere to the rules.
CAIN