GUINEA'S UNIONS PUT STRIKE ON HOLD, FOR NOW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001824

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PARM CWC PREL PGOV OPCW CBW GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA'S UNIONS PUT STRIKE ON HOLD, FOR NOW

REFS: A) Conakry 1798 and previous
B) Conakry 1818


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Guinea's CNTG-USTG union coalition has decided
that it will not call a general strike during December. Ongoing
negotiations have resulted in government concessions on
retirement-related issues. With the upcoming end-of-year
celebrations, union leadership believes that the costs of a general
strike would far outweigh any likely benefits. They have postponed
any organized labor action until January. Union leaders acknowledge
they have little control over teachers and other groups who might
decide to launch wildcat activities. Guinea's citizens are looking
to the unions to force the government to address the deepening
economic crisis. However, the union platform is limited in scope
and their capacity to force wide-ranging change may disappoint a
population with few avenues for repair. End Summary.

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Negotiations Bear Fruit on Retirement Issue
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2. (SBU) Guinea's preparations for a general strike (Ref A),are
currently on hold. As a result of ongoing negotiations, the
government and Guinea's CNTG-USTG union coalition have reached a
limited agreement on the retirement issue, thus addressing the most
immediate demand. In a December 18 meeting, Minister of State for
Internal Affairs Moussa Solano and Minister of Labor Pierette Tolno
reportedly announced that the government would cancel all
retirements for 2006 -- reversing its decision to retire thousands
of workers who had reached the legal retirement age. The unions had
vehemently protested this action as a violation of the terms of
agreement signed earlier in 2006. The ministers also reportedly
announced that in April 2007, the government would introduce a law
in the National Assembly to raise the legal retirement age.


3. (SBU) While retirement is only one item on a long list of
demands, it was enough to calm the unions in the near-term. Union
leaders confirmed to us during a December 18 meeting with the Charge
that they have no new demands on the table -- negotiations are only
to force the government to apply and adhere to the agreements signed
in the aftermath of the first two strikes in March and June. The
organizers recognized that the union coalition has achieved major
concessions over the course of the year. However, most of these
achievements, they said, are being nullified by runaway inflation
and dramatic decreases in purchasing power. The leaders lamented
that even if the government upholds all its promises, the situation
of the average worker would not be much improved.

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Union Action Will Be Delayed Until January
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4. (SBU) Union leaders expressed to us their reticence to strike in
December, disrupting national life during "a holy month for all
Guineans." Both Eid al-Adha (Tabaski) and the New Year fall on the
last weekend of December this year. Union leaders recognize also
that Christmas is a concern for the minority of Guineans who are
Christian. They said that if they were to call a strike, no
transportation would be available to serve most Guineans who
typically return to their home villages during the month. They also
said that with the pilgrimage to Mecca ongoing, a strike would
destroy the ability for citizens to put together necessary resources
to fund these journeys. Since most Guinea's live hand-to-mouth, the
leaders said, a strike at this moment would cause major social and
economic disruptions that they did not believe the population could
withstand. The union organizers also acknowledged that at present,
it would be difficult to mobilize its members and sympathizers to
follow a general strike.


5. (SBU) The inter-union coalition continues to hold ongoing
meetings among its members. A December 20 meeting is scheduled
where leaders are reportedly planning to discuss the decision to
delay any strike until January. Yamoussa Toure, Deputy General
Secretary of CNTG, told us that in January, they would once again

SIPDIS
put the strike back on the table. They would also raise new
demands, based on the current context. Over the next few weeks,
however, they will continue to meet with the government to see what
can be done to address its other "transgressions" of the agreed
terms, Toure said.

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How Will the Base Respond?
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6. (SBU) With divisions within the union rank and file, the
decision to delay the strike will undoubtedly be met with mixed
reaction. In our December 18 meeting with union leaders, they told
us that teachers have yet to be paid and that while signed by Conte,
the document that addresses their special status has yet to be

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implemented. Protests and small wildcat strikes by contract
teachers have periodically arisen in different regions over the last
few months. More recent spontaneous protests by students have also
taken place in Conakry (Ref B). These activities have not been
coordinated through the inter-union coalition.


7. (SBU) The union leaders noted the difficulty of reaching their
members in all regions of the country. Communication is especially
difficult with adherents in N'Zerekore as well as in rural and
outlying areas, they said. Sarah Rabiatou Diallo, President of
CNTG, stated the unions would act only when ready -- that they
wanted to make sure all of Guinea's workers received the necessary
information, including the signal to strike. Unfortunately, they
said that meager resources make outreach a continual challenge.


8. (SBU) On a recent trip to Labe, Poloff met with union leaders
who severed ties to this headquarters after Conakry-based
negotiators suspended the June general strike. The regional leaders
said that while relations have been re-established, there is a deep
degree of mistrust and the lack of communication with headquarters.
This exacerbates frustration in Labe and in other regional centers,
making them more likely to act in their own best interests, they
said. In response to a question about an upcoming general strike,
the local union leaders told us this time, "They would go to the
limits in order to force changes to guarantee improvements in the
lives of workers in the formal and informal sectors." They
expressed doubts that leaders in Conakry are prepared to make the
same sacrifices. In our December 18 meeting with CNTG leaders,
Poloff urged that commu8nication and transparency were key to
ensuring cohesion.

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Comment
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9. (SBU) The union's decision to delay a general strike seems to be
based primarily on timing. They want to be sure that their actions
will have the greatest effect and cannot guarantee success during
the month of December. The unions also may be less able to control
any generalized action. At the same time, the unions acknowledge
their limitations -- demands are limited to the list of items
negotiated earlier in the year. The union leaders expressed
frustration at Conte's liberation of Mamadou Sylla and Fode Soumah
(Ref B),stating that it was clear that Guinea is being governed
with impunity and fundamental disregard for the rule of law. While
they consider their negotiated agreements as "law", they said they
have no confidence that these or any government promises would be
upheld. End Comment.

WINN