Guinea's Movement Towards Political Consensus: At a

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001695

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREF EAID ELTN SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: Guinea's Movement Towards Political Consensus: At a
Snail's Pace

REFS: (A) Conakry 1579, (B) Conakry 1617


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Little has been done to implement the
recommendations by Guinea's opposition and majority political
parties since they reached consensus on political reforms on October

16. The changes, including an independent electoral commission,
would be wide-ranging and could greatly increase transparency and
support a more effective democratic process (ref A). However, the
"Commission Paritaire" has disbanded without ensuring its
recommendations are enacted into law. Without a coherent plan of
action, the government is pushing the international community to
fill the void, abdicating its responsibility for necessary
preparations for improved legislative elections. End Summary.

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Signed Document Does Not Represent Final Consensus
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2. (SBU) On October 16, representatives from Guinea's majority and
opposition political parties signed a series of recommended texts
for an electoral commission, party financing, opposition status, and
amendment of the electoral code. The document represented the
culmination of ongoing political dialogues since 2004 and recent
deliberations by the "Commission Paritaire" (ref A). The
Commission, created on August 23, was comprised of 12
representatives from opposition parties, 12 representatives from the
ruling PUP and allied parties, and five representatives from the
administration. It convened from September 8 through October 16.
The historic document represented wide-ranging political consensus,
particularly on the creation of an independent electoral commission.



3. (SBU) Because of the impending visit by EC Commissioner Louis
Michel (ref B) in late October, party representatives told us they
felt pressure to reach consensus, fulfilling one of the major
criteria to resume EC funding. Opposition party representatives
said the pressure was positive, as they believed the PUP and the
administration might not have agreed to several of the
recommendations had their backs not been against the wall.


4. (SBU) At the same time, the opposition objected to the October
16 document being presented to the EC as a final agreed text.
Opposition party leaders, including Sidya Toure, Jean-Marie Dore,
and Ousmane Bah have all made public statements about amendments
they intend to propose to the October 16 text. These amendments are
principally centered on Article 2, clarifying the process of
"co-management" of the elections. The opposition leaders all
described the document as a step in the right direction, but not one
of consensus.

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Government Will Meet With Party Leaders, No Date Set
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5. (SBU) Opposition party leaders requested a meeting with the
Interministerial Committee on Dialogue, chaired by Minister of State
for Territorial Administration Moussa Solano, to present their
comments and amendments to the text. Solano initially refused to
meet with them, reportedly saying, "They signed, they agreed, and it
is too late for any objections." Solano planned to use the October
16 document as the basis for a draft bill to be presented to the
National Assembly. Our contacts within the Ministry of Territorial
Administration and Decentralization told us that Solano recognizes
the need for sustained dialogue and has now agreed to meet with the
party leaders. However, no date has been set.

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Commission Views Its Work Completed
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6. (SBU) While the document is stuck in a back and forth between
the political parties and the government, a new, independent
electoral commission cannot be established to oversee the necessary
preparations for next June's legislative elections. Since the
Commission Paritaire completed its recommendations, it has
disbanded. On November 9, Visiting AF/W Desk Officer Deji Okediji
and Poloff met with four members of the Commission Paritaire - two
from opposition groups UPR and UFR, one from the PUP, and one from a
small party allied with the majority party. They detailed days of
very difficult negotiations but asserted that their work was
complete; it was now up to the government and the National Assembly
to take the next steps.


7. (SBU) We encouraged them to take ownership of the entire process
and to come back together to exert pressure on their party leaders
and the administration to ensure that their work was not wasted.

CONAKRY 00001695 002 OF 002


The commission representatives agreed that until the recommendations
become law, nothing will change. They also said that certain key
actors have a vested interest in stalling, so the election countdown
expires without reforms being implemented. With positive signs that
the EC might release funding, one opposition party representative
told Poloff that the pressure no longer exists to force the
government's hand. However, they promised to do their part to get
the text moving once again.

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If You Want Transparent Elections, You Have to Pay
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8. (SBU) While the government did present a formal funding proposal
to UNDP and the EC, the Ministry of Territorial Administration and
Decentralization (MATD) has not followed up with the necessary
details to engage the process. During the weekly meeting of
elections donors on November 8, the UNDP and EC representatives
expressed significant frustration with government interlocutors who
are either unwilling or unable to produce a plan of action for the
elections. Thus far, Guinea has produced a timetable with specific
goals listed, but no details on what actions are necessary to meet
these objectives, who is tasked with each, and how much they will
cost. The UNDP and EC representatives told us the ministry says it
cannot complete a plan because it has never used the machines and
the automated processes for voter identification that the EC has
promised to fund.


9. (SBU) The government has been provided with recommendations by
the UNDP electoral expert who conducted a needs assessment for
electoral financing, but MATD representatives said they are still
"studying" the paper. The EC representative confirmed that although
the ministry could not articulate its vision for the electoral
process, it has contested the part of funding document that
prohibits the purchase of vehicles. The newly appointed director of
electoral activities (who served under Solano during the 2003
presidential elections),told the EC rep that in order to be
successful, it will need fifty 4x4 vehicles to be purchased for its
use. Although the government has said for weeks that it plans to
hold a donors conference to detail its election plan, no date has
been set for this either.

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Comment
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10. (SBU) Guinea's preparations for its June 2007 legislative
elections are moving forward, but the momentum is definitely in fits
and starts. Actors remain in a reactive mode. While the EC is
prepared to put forward 7.5 million euros for the election process,
the government has not articulated its plan on how it will use these
funds to guarantee an improved process. Instead, it is waiting for
the donors to take the lead. At the same time, the "consensus"
reached between the government and political parties has not
translated into any concrete actions. With a tight schedule to meet
for the June 2007 elections, Guinea's pace of progress must quicken
or it will lose its race toward transparent elections.

MCDONALD