DMK AND CONGRESS PREVAIL IN TAMIL NADU AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000969

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: DMK AND CONGRESS PREVAIL IN TAMIL NADU AS
JAYALALITHAA EXITS THE SCENE FOR NOW

REF: CHENNAI 0873 AND PREVIOUS


1. SUMMARY: (SBU) The DMK-alliance, led by 82 year old

M. Karunanidhi, won a closer than normal Tamil Nadu
state assembly election and will set up Tamil Nadu's
first minority government in memory. Their victory
was assured by a cohesive coalition of parties with
Congress making an especially strong showing. Aside
from the AIADMK party which lost power, other losers
in the election were MDMK leader Vaiko and the BJP
party which won an almost invisible two percent of the
vote. Business leaders are generally positive about
the outlook for a good business climate in the state
under the new administration. END SUMMARY.

--------------
THE FINAL TALLY
--------------


2. (U) In the contest for 234 Tamil Nadu assembly
seats, the final tally of seats won by each alliance
is as follows:

DMK Alliance - 163
AIADMK Alliance - 69
Others - 2

The DMK alliance won 45 percent of the final vote
while the AIADMK alliance won 40 percent. The DMK
party, to assure cohesiveness of its coalition, was
generous in pre-campaign negotiations with alliance
partners, giving them large numbers of winnable seats
to contest, and by doing so, almost assuring that the
DMK itself would be unable to win the 118 seats
required for a majority. DMK made a good show,
winning 96 of the 132 seats it contested but, as
expected, fell far short of having a majority of its
own.

--------------
DMK WILL LEAD A MINORITY GOVERNMENT
--------------


3. (SBU) For the first time since Dravidian parties
entered the scene of Tamil Nadu politics in the 1960s,
Tamil Nadu will have a minority government, led by DMK
party veteran M. Karunanidhi, and supported from
outside the government by election allies the
Congress, PMK, CPI(M),and CPI parties. Given the
numbers of seats won by each party (DMK - 96, Congress
- 34, PMK - 18, CPI(M) - 13, CPI - 10),the DMK and
Congress have a comfortable majority in the 234 seat
assembly without the other partners, and some Tamil
Nadu Congress party leaders openly expressed
disappointment at not being coalition partners in the
government with the DMK, rather than supporting from
the outside. But from the viewpoint of the national
Congress party, it makes more sense to support from
the outside to assure that the DMK remains dependent
upon their support and to assure that local Congress
party officials remain loyal to the Congress and not
be subsumed by the DMK. The Congress position in
Tamil Nadu will be not unlike that of the CPI (M)
position in the center: supporting from the outside
and in doing so, hoping to have influence on policy
direction. Significantly, given the numbers of seats
each party holds, DMK could still maintain its
majority without the Congress party with the help of
its other coalition parties the PMK, CPI(M) and CPI.

--------------
WHY THE DMK COALITION WON
--------------


4. (SBU) There were three primary drivers of the DMK-
led victory. First and foremost was the coalition
itself. Based on historic voting patterns, the DMK
coalition had an almost insurmountable edge from the
start. The final results were very close to those
forecast by DMK strategist Sivaprakasam in a pre-
election meeting with Post (Reftel). Clearly there
remains in Tamil Nadu a strong tendency to vote along
traditional caste, religious or social group lines.
The second factor was the aggressive party manifesto,
full of promises of free rice, free television sets
and other giveaways, issued by the DMK. The bold DMK
manifesto seized the momentum from the AIADMK early in

CHENNAI 00000969 002 OF 003


the campaign and AIADMK was never able to recover.
The third factor, still present but perhaps less
influential in this election, was the traditional anti-
incumbency factor. The two major Dravidian parties in
Tamil Nadu have tended to alternate in power for more
than twenty years now.

--------------
WHY JAYALALITHAA LOST
--------------


5. (SBU) But the AIADMK's loss wasn't all the DMK's
doing. Some of AIADMK Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's
actions during her term in office came back to haunt
her in the election. Post-election statistics show
that Christians and Muslims voted for the DMK in
overwhelming numbers. Under Jayalalithaa's
leadership, Tamil Nadu instituted an Anti-Conversion
Act in 2002. After the disastrous results for the
AIADMK in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Jayalalithaa
repealed the act but leaders of these religious
minorities didn't forget and urged their followers to
vote for DMK. The almost 200,000 state government
employees that Jayalalithaa fired in early 2004, only
to later reinstate, didn't forget either. And
finally, there was Vaiko, the charismatic MDMK leader
who quit the DMK alliance in dramatic fashion to join
with AIADMK just before the campaign started. After
initial enthusiasm for his bold move, voters seemed to
question Vaiko's motives and integrity, especially
since he had been jailed by Jayalalithaa for 19 months
only three years before. In the end, he brought
little to the AIADMK coalition, winning just six
seats.

--------------
OTHERS WINNERS: CONGRESS, VIJAYKANT
--------------


6. (SBU) The Congress party made a strong showing in
the elections, winning 34 of the 48 seats they
contested. While they remain far behind the two major
Dravidian parties, the DMK and AIADMK, in popularity
(they won only 8 percent of the total vote),they have
established themselves as clearly the third most
significant party in the state and have demonstrated
that they can win in targeted constituencies. Also
winning 8 percent of the total vote was surprising
newcomer Vijaykant. He contested 232 seats compared
to Congress' 48 so his 8 percent total is not as
impressive as that of Congress, but he demonstrated
his appeal as an alternative to the traditional
Dravidian parties. This self-characterization as an
alternative to the traditional parties was well
received by the voters and he may be a force in the
future of Tamil Nadu politics.

--------------
OTHER LOSERS: VAIKO, BJP
--------------


7. (SBU) "Charismatic" has been a common adjective
used to describe MDMK leader Vaiko but some of that
charisma was definitely lost in this campaign.
Vaiko's MDMK party won only 6 of 35 seats it contested
and won about 6 percent of the vote. More significant
for Vaiko personally, though, was his loss of
credibility. Many voters viewed him as an
unprincipled opportunist when he left the DMK alliance
to join hands with Jayalalithaa who had imprisoned him
in 2002. During the campaign, the DMK-controlled Sun
TV Network frequently replayed a speech Vaiko made
upon his release from prison in which he railed
against the "fascist Jayalalithaa government." The
effect was not positive for either Jayalalithaa or
Vaiko. The other big loser was the BJP party. Never
a strong presence in Tamil Nadu, the BJP sunk to a new
low this election, winning none of the 225 seats it
contested and just two percent of the total vote.

--------------
U.S. BUSINESS' TAKE: POSITIVE
--------------


8. (SBU) Before the start of the election campaign,
many U.S. businesses operating in the state told Post
that their preference was for the status quo. They

CHENNAI 00000969 003 OF 003


had worked effectively with the AIADMK government
which they felt had generally maintained a positive
business climate in the state. Now, with the reality
of a DMK-led government, many feel that the business
climate is likely to be equally as good or perhaps
better under the new administration. They recognize
that many of the foreign-owned businesses now
operating in Tamil Nadu established themselves here
under a previous DMK administration. They expect the
business-friendly environment to continue and are
hopeful that the new government will do better than
the previous one with regard to infrastructure
development. They base that hope on the fact that the
local administration is now aligned with the party in
power at the center rather than at odds with it. And
they are especially optimistic about the fact that
Tamil Nadu native, Union Finance Minister P.
Chidambram, was so supportive of the DMK during the
campaign, feeling that he may be in a position to
positively influence infrastructure development in the
state.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Enthusiasm about the role that DMK
leader Karunanidhi's grand-nephew and Union IT and
Communication Minister Dayanithi Maran may take in
development projects is more mixed. Maran proved to
be a liability during the campaign when the Indian
Express ran a story describing his arm-twisting
tactics while representing the family business in
negotiations with the Tata Group. Former MP and
AIADMK spokesperson Dr. V. Maitreyan told Post that
the DMK family business will now be involved in all
new development in the state and demand their pound of
flesh (or allocation of shares as is alleged in the
Tata case). Others feel that Maran's influence in New
Delhi can help the state. Both views may be partly
correct. END COMMENT

CANDADAI