TAMIL NADU ELECTION: CLOSE CONTEST, BUT DMK-

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000873

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CAPTIONS)

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU ELECTION: CLOSE CONTEST, BUT DMK-
ALLIANCE MORE CONFIDENT AS CAMPAIGNING CONCLUDES

REF: CHENNAI 0772 AND PREVIOUS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Growing DMK confidence of success in
Tamil Nadu's May 8 election was evident in our
contacts with party insiders during the final days of
the campaign. At the end of a long and intensive
campaign battle, opinion polls and conversations with
experts indicate a narrow lead for the DMK-led
coalition that includes the Congress party. But the
AIADMK is counting on the silent majority, the assured
women supporters and the voters with no party
affiliation, to see them through. Despite the
advantages of a bigger coalition, DMK leader
Karunanidhi's alleged nepotism, in particular, his
grandnephew Union Telecom Minister Dayanithi Maran's
alleged corrupt and high-handed business practices,
has drawn much flak. On the whole, the contest
remains close but even a slight advantage in overall
vote total can lead to a large majority of seats when
the results are announced on May 11. END SUMMARY.

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DMK: OUR AIM IS TO THROW JAYALALITHAA OUT
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2. (SBU) "We will form the government; that's for
sure," DMK Treasurer Arcot Veerasamy told Post on May

5. Earlier, Sivaprakasam, one of the DMK's insider
analysts who also runs the 24-hour control room in the
party headquarters, briefed Post on the election using
spreadsheets showing party and candidate strengths in
each of the 234 constituencies: "We expect to win 190
seats. At the minimum, we will get 162," Sivaprakasam
told Post with some confidence.


3. (SBU) Sivaprakasam believes the key to success lies
in the varying strength of the two alliances.
Sivaprakasam told Post that DMK ally, the Pattali
Makkal Katchi (PMK) party of the Vanniar caste is
electorally more significant than Vaiko's MDMK party
which left the DMK-led coalition to join with
Jayalalithaa's AIADMK coalition. This is because MDMK
voters are scattered throughout the state while the
PMK is concentrated in the northern districts where
they can swing the results in contests for individual
seats. The leftist parties, CPI(M) and CPI, are very
strong in a few constituencies, almost assuring that
they will bring some winning seats to the DMK-led
coalition. And the Congress party by itself normally
wins over 10 percent of the vote in Tamil Nadu.
Additionally, according to Sivaprakasam, 90 percent of
Muslims and Christians in the state will vote for the
DMK coalition. Sivaprakasam said removing Jayalalthaa
from power is the sole objective of DMK leader M.
Karunanidhi and to accomplish that objective,
Karunanidhi went out of his way to keep the grand
coalition intact. He agreed to have his DMK party
contest doubtful seats and gave away assured seats for
his allies to contest, Sivaprakasam told Post. He
settled for a very low 130 seats for the DMK to
contest, leaving all the rest to the allies. To
achieve the objective of unseating Jayalalithaa,
"mentally we are prepared for a coalition government
in Tamil Nadu," he said.

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AIADMK: WE CAN'T MATCH THEIR MONEY, MEN, MEDIA POWER
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4. (SBU) Former Home Secretary of Tamil Nadu and now
an AIADMK Member of Parliament, Malaisamy (protect),
admitted: "It is a tough fight. Although we are the
ruling party in Tamil Nadu, we are no match for the
money, men, and media power the other side is bringing
into the campaign."


5. (SBU) According to Malaisamy, the AIADMK strategy
banked on the 25-30 percent "neutral" (with no party
affiliation) voters. "The original thinking was that
we might win 70-80 percent of the neutral voters which
would defeat the strength of the six party alliance of
the Opposition. Now we are hoping for at least 50
percent of the neutral voters to at least match them".
Malaisamy believes the DMK coalition has the
additional advantage of having many leaders to
campaign. "Karunanithi's family alone has three
leaders; then there are five other party leaders, 13

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Union ministers, and leaders from the Center. We have
only Madam (Jayalalithaa) and Vaiko to campaign."
Malaisamy believes the AIADMK enjoys a lead in the
southern and western districts and, if the alliance
can manage to get at lest 50 percent of the seats in
the northern and Chennai areas, "ultimately we may
have the edge." He said the party banks heavily on
the women voters to achieve this.

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RECENT OPINION POLLS FEED DMK OPTIMISM
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6. (SBU) The latest opinion polls suggest a growing
tend toward the DMK alliance. The Week/C-Voter poll,
surveying 3053 respondents in 117 constituencies from
April 10-20, projected a 3 percent lead in vote share
for the DMK coalition (45 percent over the AIADMK's 42
percent). In terms of seats this translates into 130-
138 seats for the former and 87-95 for AIADMK. The
second phase of the pre-poll survey by the School of
Media Studies, Loyola College, projected 45.1 percent
votes for the DMK alliance and 39.5 percent for the
AIADMK. According to this survey, the DMK alliance
could pick up 134 seats.


7. (SBU) In the last round of Post's canvassing of
opinions, a majority of the bank officers, trade
unionists, firemen, lawyers, former politicians and
journalists we spoke with in different parts of Tamil
Nadu, indicate the same trend. P.S. Joseph of India
Today, who undertook a tour of the interior parts of
northern Tamil Nadu along with journalist colleagues,
also returned with the same finding. Nonetheless,
there were dissenters, who claimed that silent women
voters would hold the key to a surprise victory for
Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK coalition.

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KARUNANIDHI'S FAMILY RULE, A TARGET OF ATTACK
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7. (SBU) Union Telecom Minister and Karunanidhi's
grand-nephew, the U.S.-educated Dayanithi Maran, has
drawn much flak from the opposition, particularly the
fiery campaigner Vaiko. An Indian Express story
alleging Maran's arm-twisting tactics on the Tatas
obviously did much damage to the DMK. More than
Karunanidhi's unpopular son Stalin, Maran has emerged
as a liability to the coalition. However, Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh, who made a listless campaign
speech at Chennai on May 4, chose to ignore the
allegations and showered praises on his young cabinet
colleague. Indian Express Correspondent Arun believes
that the critical reports about Maran might not have
impacted the villagers, who would not have understood
the details but only gotten a vague sense that
Karunanidhi is helping his family - not necessarily a
bad thing in the eyes of many Tamils.

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PONDICHERRY: CONGRESS THE LEADING PARTNER
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8. (SBU) Pondicherry, a Tamil speaking former French
enclave, now a Union Territory of India (not a full-
fledged state, but one in which the Union Government
has more administrative powers),located south of
Chennai, will also complete the election to its 30-
seat assembly on May 8. In Pondicherry, the Congress
leads the coalition with the DMK, PMK and others as
junior partners. On the opposition side, the AIADMK
has an additional ally, a local faction of the
Congress party.


9. (SBU) Chief Minister Rangasamy, a low-profile
Congressman who usually tours his districts on a motor-
bike, is popular among poor voters, although some
businesses consider him not sufficiently dynamic.
Attaching importance to a small "state" where Congress
has chances of remaining in power, Congress President
Sonia Gandhi campaigned in Pondicherry on April 25,
hoping her strong support to Rangasamy would help
limit the damage caused by ambitious dissidents within
the party.

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SRI LANKAN VIOLENCE NOT AN ISSUE IN TAMIL NADU
ELECTION
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10. (SBU) The recent escalation in violence in Sri
Lanka has not been a campaign issue in Tamil Nadu.
Neither coalition feels they have anything to gain by
introducing the subject which is not uppermost in the
minds of most Tamil Nadu residents. Additionally,
each coalition may have some internal disagreement
among coalition partners on the issue of Sri Lankan
Tamils. For example, Vaiko, now part of the AIADMK
coalition, has long been thought to have connections
to the LTTE and was once jailed by current coalition
partner Jayalalithaa for expressing support for the
group. On the DMK side, the PMK party also has been
thought to have connections with the LTTE while the
DMK distanced itself from the group after the
assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

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WHAT'S IN THE MIND OF THE SILENT VOTER?
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11. (SBU) COMMENT: As Union Finance Minister
Chidambaram observed, the DMK manifesto has emerged as
the real star of the Tamil Nadu election campaign.
Jayalalithaa's desperation seems evident in her
attempts to match the wild promises in the manifesto.
In a last minute move she has now promised to give
four grams of gold to every poor girl getting married.
The silent voters who figure in the AIADMK's dreams
remain the imponderable, whose opinion will be heard
only after the counting of votes on May 11. If one
goes by the levels of confidence on both sides,
though, the DMK will definitely be the winner. END
COMMENT.


12. (SBU) Post will report on the outcome of the
election and its implications for U.S. interests after
results are announced on May 11.

HOPPER