Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CHENNAI848
2006-05-02 10:22:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

KERALA ELECTIONS: EXIT POLLS POINT TO A LEFT

Tags:  PGOV PINR IN 
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VZCZCXRO0486
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0848/01 1221022
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021022Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8147
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1626
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4749
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 0496
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1200
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000848 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: KERALA ELECTIONS: EXIT POLLS POINT TO A LEFT
FRONT VICTORY

REF: CHENNAI 0567

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000848

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: KERALA ELECTIONS: EXIT POLLS POINT TO A LEFT
FRONT VICTORY

REF: CHENNAI 0567


1. SUMMARY: (SBU) Peaceful polling and unanimous exit
poll results predicting a Left Front victory marked
the first and second phases of Kerala elections, which
cover 90% of the state. The remaining constituencies
will vote on May 3. Despite the Congress leaders'
media bravado, they privately admit pessimism over the
outcome. As a key element of their campaign, the
leftists successfully whipped up Islamic passion
against Congress' perceived support for U.S. policies
in Iran and Iraq. The communal campaign raises
concerns about future harmony in a state where Muslims
constitute 24 percent of the population. END SUMMARY.

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PEACEFUL POLLING; EXIT POLLS FAVOR LEFTISTS
--------------


2. (SBU) Amid wide expectations of a Left Democratic
Front victory, 125 of Kerala's 140 assembly
constituencies completed peaceful polling on April 23
and 29. The third and final phase of polling will
take place in the remaining 15 northern constituencies
on May 3. Voter participation percentage in the first
phase was 69.78 and in the second phase, 73.49. The
final results that will be announced on May 11 will
declare who will rule India's highest literacy state
for the next five years. But based on exit polls and
the state's trend of anti-incumbent voting, many
Keralites are already convinced that the Left
Democratic Front (LDF),led by the Communist Party of
India (Marxist) (CPI-M),is set to regain power after
a gap of five years.


3. (SBU) According to The Hindu newspaper of April 30,
all three exit polls conducted in the state point to
an easy victory for the LDF. While the India Vision-
AC Nielsen poll gave the LDF 87 of the 125 seats, the
Asianet exit poll put the figure at 76 to 89, and
Jeevan TV, at 95 to 98. With the remaining 15
constituencies that go to the polls on May 3 being
traditional strongholds of the LDF, the exit polls
suggest a huge final majority for them in the 140-
member assembly.

-------------- --------------
CHANDY HOPES AGAINST HOPE; OTHERS LESS OPTIMISTIC
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Chief Minister Oommen Chandy told Post after
the first phase of polling that the Congress-led UDF
remains hopeful, claiming that they would win a

majority of seats in the first phase of the polling,
and do much better in the second phase. He, however,
did not sound convincing and was dismissive with the
press when they asked about the exit polls. Congress
leader, Chairman of Kerala Tourism Corporation, and
former Minister Pandalam Sudhakaran (protect),was
more forthright: "We are in a terribly poor
condition," he told Post. "We might make 40-50 seats
at best." Sudhakaran believes that last minute fence
mending with the estranged Congress leader
Karunakaran's faction did not create any positive
impact. "In retrospect, it might have been better if
we had just followed Oommen Chandy's line and kept
Karunakaran at bay," he said. Minister K.C. Venugopal
(protect),a young Congress leader, was more
optimistic: he believes the Congress might gather 60-
65 seats, still short of majority.

--------------
LEFTISTS WHIPPED UP ANTI-U.S. ISLAMIC PASSION
-------------- -


5. (SBU) The CPI(M) spent much campaign energy turning
Muslim communal sentiment against the Congress party
and its long-time ally, the Indian Union Muslim
League. The GOI's perceived weakness in "resisting
the U.S.' imperialist actions against Iraq and Iran"
was one of the major themes of the state election
campaign. M.M. Hassan (protect),a Congress leader
belonging to the Muslim community, told Post that the
issue had become a major poll theme in Kerala, which
has 24 percent Muslim population. According to
Hassan, the Iran-Iraq issue affected the Congress
almost as badly as the 1992 Babri Masjid demolition,

CHENNAI 00000848 002 OF 002


"maybe about 75 percent the impact of Babri Masjid,"
he said. He pointed out that Muslim organizations
such as the Jama-Ate-Islami and the Peoples'
Democratic Party (PDP),which is led by Abdul Nasser
Madani, an Islamic radical now in jail for his alleged
role in the terrorist bombings in Tamil Nadu in 1998,
openly campaigned for the LDF. In order to capture
the Islamic hardliners' votes, the LDF also maintained
open ties with the Indian National League, a faction
that broke from the Indian Union Muslim League to
pursue more vigorous communal politics.

-------------- --------------
HINDU REACTION MUTED; CONGRESS IN NO POSITION TO TAP
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Congress leader Hassan (protect) told Post
that there has been no visible Hindu consolidation
against the aggressive pro-Muslim campaign of the LDF.
"The government is widely seen as being run by a
Christian (Chief Minister Oommen Chandy),and
supported by the Muslim League," he said. According
to Hassan, this perception has put a damper on any
groundswell of Hindu support. LDF propaganda branded
the Indian Union Muslim League, which has partnered
with the Congress in Kerala since the 1980s, as
unresponsive to Muslim concerns, suggesting that they
had ignored the Muslim community's interests while
looking after their own personal agendas. Gowridasan
Nair (protect),Principal Correspondent of The Hindu,
went further and alleged that the Muslim League
leaders had invited public wrath by their support for
criminals such as those involved in the massacre of
eight Hindus in Marad in May 2003. He believes that
CPI(M) leader Achuthanandan has emerged as the hero of
the 2006 campaign. Octogenarian Achuthanandan,
reintroduced into the campaign by the party in
response to popular demand, is one of the principal
contenders for the Chief Minister's post, if the LDF
gains a majority as expected.

--------------
INDIAN UNION MUSLIM LEAGUE LOSING SUPPORT
--------------


7. (SBU) The Indian Union Muslim League, traditional
partner of the Congress, remains the largest Muslim
political party in Kerala. But it has been slowly
losing support among Muslims, especially Muslim youth.
Many young Muslims have been attracted by either ultra-
conservative Muslim religious groups or one of the
many small Muslim parties that have broken away from
the Union League. Other Muslims have joined the CPI-
M, who with its strident criticism of India's growing
connections with the U.S., they feel better represents
their views.

--------------
GROWING COMMUNAL DIVIDE A CAUSE OF CONCERN
--------------


8. (SBU) COMMENT: It seems very unlikely that the
Congress-led UDF will retain power in the face of
Kerala's anti-incumbency history. Congress leaders'
faint hopes seem to rest on the intra-party feud that
prevails in the CPI(M) and which came to the fore when
Achuthanandan was originally denied a seat to contest.
Had the CPI(M) persisted with that decision, it could
have resulted in major upheavals. But once the party
yielded and gave Achuthanandan a seat to contest, it
seemed to give the old party-line communist a larger
than life image. Meanwhile, the communal undertones
of the 2006 election campaign raise concerns about the
future of communal harmony in the state with its high
concentrations of Islamic population in the northern
districts. END COMMENT.

HOPPER