Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CHENNAI772
2006-04-24 08:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

TAMIL NADU ELECTIONS: MANY GIVEAWAYS, BUT NO

Tags:  PGOV PINR IN 
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RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0772/01 1140837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240837Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8048
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1600
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4736
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 0483
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1191
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000772 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU ELECTIONS: MANY GIVEAWAYS, BUT NO
RUNAWAY

REF: CHENNAI 0521

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000772

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU ELECTIONS: MANY GIVEAWAYS, BUT NO
RUNAWAY

REF: CHENNAI 0521


1. SUMMARY: (SBU) Free color TVs for all families
without one; ten kilograms of free rice through ration
shops; two acres of land for the landless; maternity
dole for six months to pregnant women; burial
allowance for the dead . . . Tamil Nadu political
parties' election promises have surpassed all previous
records. Recent opinion polling indicates a close
contest with marginal advantage to Chief Minister
Jayalalithaa's AIADMK-led coalition. While Post'
contacts believe that the AIADMK has indeed come a
long way from its rout in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections
and might emerge the winner, it is still unclear which
way the critical undecided voters will swing before
the elections on May 8. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --
PROMISES GALORE FROM CRADLE TO GRAVE, LITERALLY
-------------- --


2. (SBU) Competitive populism is running riot in the
Tamil Nadu election campaign. In its election
manifesto released on March 30, principal opposition
party DMK promised that, if elected, they will provide
free color television sets to every family that does
not have one. Also promised is quality rice at 2
Rupees (4 cents) per kilogram, a maternity dole of
1,000 Rupees ($21) per month for six months to all
pregnant women, free gas stoves to poor families, free
power to weavers, cancellation of farm loans, and even
a $21 allowance for the burial rites of the dead.
Brushing aside doubts on the feasibility of some of
these commitments, DMK President Karunanidhi declared
in campaign stops that the rice subsidy would be the
first executive order he would sign as Chief Minister,
and that cheap TV sets would be imported from China to
meet the demand.


3. (SBU) In making these offers, the opposition is
stealing a page from the strategy Chief Minister
Jayalalithaa has used to recover from her party's rout
in the 2004 Lok Sabha election. For example, since
2004 Jayalalithaa has distributed 614,000 bicycles to
students at a cost of $24 million, given away flood
relief assistance to 3.4 million families totaling
$128 million, and, each year, distributed free sarees
to 11 million women and dhotis (traditional
loincloths) to 11 million men. With the DMK
threatening to eclipse her largesse with the rosy
promises in its manifesto, she upped the ante,

offering 10 kilograms of free rice to all eligible
families. This came as an after-thought (or perhaps a
counter punch in the rice giveaway war) much after the
AIADMK poll manifesto was released.


4. (SBU) Not to be left behind, actor and new
political entrant Vijayakant of the DMDK party has
promised 15 kilograms of rice absolutely free.

-------------- ---
CAMPAIGNING IN FULL SWING; BOTH SIDES CLAIM LEAD
-------------- ---


5. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's two major coalitions, the DMK-
Congress-Left-PMK coalition and the AIADMK-MDMK-Dalit
Panthers coalition (Reftel),are campaigning
intensively in the districts. Officials of Chief
Minister Jayalalithaa's entourage told Post that her
tour in southern Tamil Nadu is drawing enthusiastic
response. "She is doing very well," said a senior
Intelligence officer of the state police accompanying
her, adding that her party remains "very optimistic"
after seeing large crowds thronging street-side
meetings. Meanwhile, DMK Member of Parliament
Shanmughasundaram told Post the DMK-led coalition
would win over 180 seats in the 234-member assembly.
"It is not for rice alone that people would vote for
us, although Jayalalithaa seems to believe so," he
said. He believes that the numerical strength of the
DMK coalition is the key factor.


6. (SBU) Outside the two major coalitions are the
loners, the BJP and the DMDK, a new party founded by a
film-star turned politician Vijayakant. A senior BJP
leader confided to Post that his party will perform
miserably, losing many former supporters who will this

CHENNAI 00000772 002 OF 002


time vote for the AIADMK. Journalists predict that
Vijayakant's DMDK party might, however, poll over 5
percent of the votes, drawing supporters away from
both the DMK and the AIADMK.

--------------
SLUGFEST: VAIKO TAKES CHARGE OF OFFENSIVE
--------------


7. (SBU) Vaiko, star campaigner and General Secretary
of the MDMK party, has turned out to be a prize catch
for Jayalalithaa. After leaving the DMK Front and
joining hands with Jayalalithaa, he has added much
firepower to her coalition, even though the actual
votes he brings to the table may be less than 5
percent. In well-attended public meetings and TV
appearances, he sharply attacks Karunanidhi's
nepotism, particularly the promoting of his son Stalin
and his grand-nephew Union Minister Dayanithi Maran.
Post contacts agree that M.K. Stalin, waiting in the
wings to succeed Karunanidhi, remains unpopular with
the Tamil masses. Vaiko also attacks Dayanithi Maran
for alleged unethical support to the wealthy family
business, the Sun TV Network.

--------------
TOO CLOSE TO CALL, SAY POLLSTERS
--------------


8. (SBU) Polling 4781 voters in 58 Tamil Nadu assembly
constituencies between April 1-7, the Center for the
Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) predicted a 46
percent vote share for the AIADMK alliance and 44
percent to the DMK Front. The poll, sponsored by
Tamil Nadu's most respected leftist newspaper, The
Hindu, along with CNN-IBN news channel, indicated that
the race is too close to call, as the 2 percent lead
is well within the margin of error. Another caveat of
the pollsters was Tamil Nadu's history of late voter
swings. The poll noted that significant numbers of
voters remain undecided. According to The Hindu, one
of the key findings is that "no single party is likely
to win a majority of the 234 assembly seats." If no
party wins a clear majority, Tamil Nadu will find
itself with a coalition government for the first time
in the state's history.

--------------
DEFT MOVES HELP JAYA OVERCOME 2004 DEBACLE
--------------


9. (SBU) Post's independent contacts generally agree
that the AIADMK has come a long way from the total
rout it faced in 2004 Lok Sabha elections. A good
number of them now anticipate that her coalition will
eventually emerge the winner. Jayalalithaa's deft
moves after 2004, such as the repeal of the
controversial 2002 "Anti-Religious Conversion law"
helped the image makeover. [Although the technical
legal validity of the of the repeal ordinance is
questioned, the anti-conversion law remains
practically dead in the state with no case ever
registered under its provisions.]

--------------
THE LOSER: TAMIL NADU'S FISCAL HEALTH
--------------


10. (SBU) COMMENT: The question remains whether Chief
Minister Jayalalithaa's largesse during the past two
years has curried enough favor with voters to defeat
the apparent numerical strength of the DMK-Congress-
Left-PMK coalition. Given Tamil Nadu's history of
late vote swings, much will depend on the course of
the campaign over the next two weeks. Whoever wins,
the loser could be the state's fiscal health. Already
with an estimated fiscal deficit of 54.41 billion
Rupees ($1.21 billion) in FY 2005-06, the promised
additional subsidies will hamper needed investment in
infrastructure. For obvious political reasons, the
Center, particularly Finance Minister Chidambaram who
is from Tamil Nadu, has tacitly endorsed the
outrageous promises, demonstrating once again that
government officials are politicians first. END
COMMENT.

HOPPER