Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CHENNAI567
2006-03-27 12:11:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

KERALA ELECTIONS: INFIGHTING SUSPENDED, RIVAL

Tags:  PGOV PINR IN 
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VZCZCXRO2669
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0567/01 0861211
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271211Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7787
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1559
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4717
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 0464
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1188
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000567 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: KERALA ELECTIONS: INFIGHTING SUSPENDED, RIVAL
COALITIONS READY FOR POLLS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000567

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: KERALA ELECTIONS: INFIGHTING SUSPENDED, RIVAL
COALITIONS READY FOR POLLS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Communist-led Left Democratic
Front poses a strong challenge to the ruling Congress-
led United Democratic Front in the upcoming Kerala
state assembly elections slated for April 22, 29 and
May 3. Infighting, a perennial bane of the Congress
party, has crept into the Communist party, too,
opening up chances for unforeseen results, but on
balance the Leftists seem to enjoy the upper hand. A
Leftist victory could set back the clock on recent
efforts to create a business-friendly climate in
Kerala. End Summary.

--------------
BACKGROUND: TWO JOCKEYING COALITIONS
--------------


2. (SBU) Kerala politics is dominated by the
traditional rivalry between two equally powerful
coalitions, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by
the Congress party and the opposition Left Democratic
Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India-
Marxist(CPI-M). Kept at bay by the coalitions, the
BJP remains in the margins, unable to elect any
legislator to the state assembly to date.


3. (SBU) Ever since the coalitions took shape in the
1980's, the UDF and the LDF have alternated in power.
This pattern of anti-incumbent voting continued in the
last assembly elections of 2001, when it was the turn
of the UDF to trounce the opponents. Our interlocutors
believe that the voters' recurrent anger towards the
ruling parties is due to factors such as the incurably
high (20 percent) unemployment rate of Kerala which
has created a pool of frustrated youth, and the
state's hyperactive media which effectively assumes an
opposition role.


4. (SBU) In the eight-party UDF, the Congress' junior
partners are the Indian Union Muslim League (Muslims
constitute 24 percent of Kerala's population) and a
clutch of six other smaller parties or factions.
Congress Chief Minister Oommen Chandy is the most
prominent leader in the UDF but former Chief Minister
A.K. Antony remains a significant player. The LDF,
also made up of eight parties, includes the CPI(M),
the Communist Party of India (CPI),the Revolutionary
Socialist Party (RSP) and other smaller parties.
Additionally, the LDF has a tactical understanding
with the Indian National League (INL),a party of
Muslims. Opposition Leader V.S. Achuthanandan, party
State Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan, LDF Convener Paloli

Mohammed Kutty, and Central Committee Member M.A. Baby
are the top leaders of the CPI(M).

--------------
ALLIES AT THE CENTER, OPPONENTS IN STATE
--------------


5. (SBU) The Communist parties' support of the
Congress-led government at the Center has not lessened
Congress vs. Communist opposition at the state level
in Kerala. The CPI(M),however, has little difficulty
in explaining this apparent paradox to its cadre.
According to them, the common enemy BJP makes the UPA
a necessary evil at the Center while at the state
level, the BJP's electoral irrelevance rules out the
need for such leniency.


6. (SBU) The Communist parties' virulent opposition to
GOI policies is in fact one of the principal election
issues. For example, the GOI's perceived "capitulation
to U.S. pressure" on Iran's nuclear program is a major
theme of Leftist street-corner campaigns. The
Congress and its coalition partner Muslim League are
visibly defensive: Congress legislator K.V. Thomas
explained to Post how the party leaders took pains to
keep Sonia Gandhi away from the local media when she
visited Kerala on March 4 for fear that any comment on
the Iran issue might become the headline the next day.

-------------- --------------
CONGRESS SPLIT AND REUNION: THE WHEEL COME FULL CIRCLE
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Acute factionalism within the Congress party
had been the bane of the UDF government. As conflict
between the camp followers of octogenarian Congress

CHENNAI 00000567 002 OF 003


leader Karunakaran and the then-Chief Minister A.K.
Antony worsened in 2004, all the Congress party
candidates suffered humiliating defeats in the Lok
Sabha elections. This led to Antony's resignation as
Chief Minister, paving the way for Oommen Chandy to
take over. Chandy hardened the stance against the
rebels, prompting Karunakaran and his son
Muraleedharan to quit the Congress with their
followers to form the "Democratic Indira Congress-
Karunakaran," (DIC-K). In early 2006, Post contacts
across the state, including Congress leaders, were
unanimous that the UDF was facing a sure defeat in the
upcoming 2006 elections.


8. (SBU) Dashing the hopes of Karunakaran and son
Muraleedharan, the CPI(M) decided to rebuff their bid
to join the LDF. On March 23, DIC(K) was forced to
make a U-turn, signing an agreement with the Congress
party and securing a modest share of 17 seats to
contest out of the state's 140. The DIC(K) agreement,
which reportedly promises a merger with the parent
party after the elections, has ended the worst of the
feuding at the top level, but many district workers of
the DIC(K) seem unwilling to digest the eleventh-hour
capitulation. The continuing discontent has taken the
sheen off the "homecoming" of Karunakaran, although
many believe the deal will be advantageous to the UDF
in some constituencies.

-------------- --
CREEPING DECADENCE: INFIGHTING ERUPTS IN CPI(M)
-------------- --


9. (SBU) While the Congress party was closing ranks, a
faction dispute that had been simmering within the
CPI(M) erupted. Reacting angrily to the party
decision not to field Opposition leader octogenarian
V.S. Achuthanandan in the upcoming election, party
workers took to the streets, some of them shocking the
leaders by marching on the party offices. In its
Political Organizational Report, the CPI(M)'s 18th
party Congress of April 2005 had expressed "serious
concern at the persisting disunity and factional
tendencies in Kerala", but no one seems to have
expected it to spill-out so close to the elections.
Clearly shaken by the popular reaction, the CPI(M)
politburo changed its earlier stand and decided to
field Achuthanandan in the elections, a move that has
now embarrassed the "official" faction of the CPI(M)
in Kerala. CPI(M) (national) General Secretary
Prakash Karat, fellow Politburo members Sitaram
Yechury, R. Umanath and S. Ramachandran Pillai spent
several hours on March 24 in back-to-back meetings
with the State Committee and State Secretariat sorting
out the issue and pacifying the dissidents. Key
journalist sources in Kerala believe that the decision
to bring back Achuthanandan to the electoral scene has
brought the situation under control, although some do
not rule out the possibility of leakage of votes.
CPI(M) Central Committee Member M.A. Baby (protect)
told Post: "the situation seems to be generally in
favor of the LDF, although one cannot rule out
undercurrents."


10. (SBU) Achuthanandan's differences with CPI(M)
State Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan are mostly to do with
the former's ambition to become the Chief Minister of
Kerala and take total control of the party and the
administration. Unlucky Achuthanandan was widely
expected to become Chief Minister after the 1996
elections, but his opponents within the party
allegedly conspired for his defeat in the Mararikulam
constituency. In 2001 elections, he won but the party
lost. 83-year old Achuthanandan, who has studied only
up to the 7th year in school, is widely considered an
old generation communist strongly opposed to reform.
His reputation as an honest politician has however won
him many admirers inside and outside the party. He
also has strong support from his Hindu "Ezhava" caste,
a dominant group within the CPI(M). Achuthanandan had
refused to publicly support Pinarayi Vijayan when
Vijayan's alleged role as Minister for Power (1996-98)
in awarding a $80 million power contract to Canadian
company SNC Lavlin raised allegations of graft. The
controversial deal, criticized by the Comptroller and
Auditor General, is now being investigated by the
Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

CHENNAI 00000567 003 OF 003



-------------- --
COMMENT: POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF LEFTIST VICTORY
-------------- --


11. (SBU) If Communist hardliner Achuthanandan
succeeds in becoming the Chief Minister and his
faction gains the upper hand in the CPI(M),Kerala's
recent efforts to change the historically negative
perceptions of its business climate are likely to
receive a setback. For example, given his background,
it will be unlikely for Achuthanandan to take a pro-
business position on issues such as the pending Coca
Cola dispute in Palakkad. He is also likely to reopen
agreements such as the one between Kerala and the
Dubai Internet City for an IT infrastructure project
in Cochin. Leftist rhetoric might take center-stage
until the recurrently angry voters turn their ire once
again on the Communists.


12. (SBU) The Kerala electoral contest may not be as
one-sided as it would have been a few months ago.
However, the DIC(K)-Congress agreement has come rather
too late in the day to inspire camaraderie among the
Congress ranks. On the LDF side, the CPI(M) has been
prompt with its fire-fighting, thereby limiting the
damage. On balance, the LDF seems to have an upper
hand, although, as M.A. Baby pointed out,
"undercurrents" cannot be ruled out. END COMMENT
HOPPER