TAMIL NADU ELECTION: DRAMATIC CHANGES AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000393

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER IN
SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU ELECTION: DRAMATIC CHANGES AS
CAMPAIGN BEGINS

REF: CHENNAI 0062


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With Tamil Nadu state assembly
elections slated for May 8, intense political activity
is changing the shape of party alliances. Vaiko, an
LTTE supporter (Reftel) and fiery orator, has led his
party out of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) fold
to join hands with his former foe, Chief Minister J
Jayalalithaa. She has also roped in to her coalition
the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI),another party which
supports the LTTE. If, after the elections, these
parties' support turns out to be critical for the
survival of a future government of Jayalalithaa, she
might tone down her aggressive rhetorical opposition
to the LTTE, but substantive changes in the state's
opposition toward the LTTE are unlikely. The MDMK's
departure from the DMK fold could lead to the ouster
of its four MPs from the UPA coalition at the Center.
END SUMMARY

--------------
NO PERMANENT ENEMIES, NO PERMANENT FRIENDS
--------------


2. (SBU) Long the scene of dramatic politics, Tamil
Nadu is seeing major changes in its battle lineup for
the May 8 elections. On March 4, Vaiko, the supreme
leader of the MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra
Kazhagam) party announced a parting of ways with the
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance. Joining
hands with Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and her AIADMK
party, Vaiko endorsed her view that "there are no
permanent enemies or permanent friends in politics."
In July 2002, Jayalalithaa jailed Vaiko for 19 months
under the now-lapsed Prevention of Terrorism Act on
charges of supporting the banned Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE). All that is now relegated to the
past, including Vaiko's own campaign against
Jayalalithaa's "fascist regime," as he termed it upon
his release from jail.

--------------
VAIKO TO POST: "THEY BLACKED ME OUT"
--------------


3. (SBU) Vaiko told Post by telephone on March 6 that
his decision was due to the deliberate suppression and
humiliation of his party by the DMK. He complained
that ever since he was released from prison, the DMK's
television channel, SUN TV, had been blacking out all
news of him and his party. Vaiko mentioned that DMK
chief Karunanidhi, if he were to win the election,
might decide to hand over the reins of the government
and party to his son Stalin, an outcome obviously not
to Vaiko's liking. But Vaiko told Post, "That was not
the key factor behind my decision, it was the
harassment. I am a fighter, you know, I cannot stand
the humiliation". Another benefit for Vaiko is the
fact that under his agreement with Jayalalithaa,
Vaiko's MDMK party will contest 35 seats as opposed to
the 22 seats he was offered by the DMK leadership.

--------------
WILL VAIKO CONTINUE IN UPA? SONIA TO DECIDE
--------------


4. (SBU) Vaiko's MDMK party has four Members of
Parliament, who support the UPA government at the
Center. Vaiko wants to continue support for the UPA,
but the DMK, also a part of the UPA coalition, has
already demanded ouster of the MDMK from the alliance.
"It is up to Sonia Gandhi, the UPA chairperson to
decide whether we continue in the UPA or not," said
Vaiko. "In any case, we do not have any ministers at
the Center," he said, meaning there is little for him
to lose if he were to be thrown out of the alliance.

--------------
DALIT PANTHERS: ANOTHER PARTY IN JAYA'S KITTY
--------------


5. (SBU) The AIADMK party, which was in total
isolation until recently, has now also brought on
board another ally, the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI).
DPI is a party of the formerly untouchable caste of
"Parayas" and is led by a young LTTE supporter,
Thirumavalavan. Several northern districts of Tamil

CHENNAI 00000393 002 OF 002


Nadu have significant presence of this low caste group
and their presence can be used to counter the DMK's
alliance with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK),a party
of the Vanniars, a dominant caste group in the same
districts. Union Health Minister and PMK leader
Anbumani told Post that although his party wanted the
DPI to be accommodated within the DMK-led alliance,
the DMK would not have them for fear that the PMK and
DPI together "would form a formidable combination in
north Tamil Nadu".

-------------- --------------
DMK PUTS UP BRAVE FACE; FIELDS SONIA TO START CAMPAIGN
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) In public statements, the DMK has put up a
brave face on the bolting by the MDMK. In private
conversation with Post, however, DMK leader and Member
of Parliament Shanmughasundaram (protect) acknowledged
that Vaiko's decision would make a dent in its
coalition. "MDMK has 3-4 percent committed voters,
" he said. Additionally, Vaiko's departure deprives
the DMK of one of their major campaign themes against
Jayalalithaa: misuse of the Prevention of Terrorism
Act. "Vaiko is a good campaigner. We will miss him
in the elections. Now with his going over to the
other side, how can we complain of his unlawful
detention?" Shanmughasundaram asked. However,
Shanmughasundaram expressed confidence that as long as
the DMK, the Congress and the PMK stand together,
along with the Communist parties and the Muslim
parties, the coalition will remain formidable.


7. (SBU) The DMK hosted Sonia Gandhi at the party's
State Conference in Tiruchi on March 5, to kick off
the election campaign. She showered praise on DMK
chief Karunanidhi and the union ministers from Tamil
Nadu and urged the DMK cadre to ensure that the people
are freed from the AIADMK misrule.

-------------- --------------
JOURNALIST BELIEVES JAYA HAS MORE GROUND TO COVER
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) According to senior journalist of the
Hindustan Times, G.C. Shekhar, the "accrual of
strength in recent days" has greatly improved Chief
Minister Jayalalithaa's election prospects. He,
however, believes that the DMK alliance still has a
lead over Jaya's group by 60-40 percent. That will
change if Jayalalithaa is able to further expand her
alliance to include the matinee star Vijayakant's new
"DMDK" party. Shekar acknowledged that there is no
major anti-incumbency sentiment prevailing in the
state - a huge factor that could turn the public mood
in Jayalalithaa's favor.

--------------
ALL IS FAIR IN WAR AND TAMIL NADU POLITICS
--------------


9. (SBU) COMMENT: In the unlikely event of
Jayalalithaa's AIADMK party being critically dependent
on her pro-LTTE allies for formation of government, it
is conceivable that she would tone down her aggressive
anti-LTTE rhetoric. Still, circumscribed as it is by
the central government's policies on the issue, the
state's tough policy toward the LTTE is unlikely to
change. A possible exit of the MDMK's four MPs from
the Central UPA coalition would mean some -- but no
great -- loss to the Union Government. The common man
does not seem to be bothered by the apparent
incongruities in the alliance between the AIADMK and
the MDMK, bitter opponents in the recent past. In
Tamil Nadu, where political battles are passionately
fought and equally passionately followed by the
public, all seems to be fair in war and politics. END
COMMENT

HOPPER