BY-ELECTION RESULTS WORRY SOUTH INDIA RULING PARTIES

UNCLAS CHENNAI 002590

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: BY-ELECTION RESULTS WORRY SOUTH INDIA RULING PARTIES



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Four by-elections in three south Indian states
produced results mostly worrying to the states' ruling parties.
Karnataka's unstable JD(S)-BJP ruling coalition had yet another
setback in the victory of a prominent JD(S) defector to the
Congress. In Andhra Pradesh's Karimnagar constituency, a defector
from the Congress-led UPA and champion of the Telengana separate
state movement Chandrasekhar Rao made a triumphant return to the Lok
Sabha, thus breathing new life into the Telengana movement. The
Congress, however, can take some succor from its narrow victory in
the Bobbili parliamentary constituency. In North Kerala, the ruling
Left Democratic Front retained the Muslim-dominated Thiruvambadi
assembly constituency, but the narrow victory margin points to an
erosion of popularity since the May 2006 general election, a period
accentuated the infighting within the ruling front. END SUMMARY.

KARIMNAGAR RESULT BOOSTS TELENGANA STATE MOVEMENT
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2. (SBU) The Karimnagar (AP) parliamentary (Lok Sabha) by-election
was called due to the resignation of former Union Labor Minister and
Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) President K. Chandrasekhar Rao. Rao
resigned and pulled his party out of the ruling UPA coalition to
protest the UPA's reluctance to carve out a new Telengana state from
Andhra Pradesh. Sending a strong message to the UPA about the
continuing support for the Telengana cause, Rao again won the seat
by a margin of 200,000 votes, with the Congress candidate running a
distant second. Rao termed the by-election a referendum on the
issue of creation of the separate state. The results give a much
needed boost to the TRS, following its repeated defeats in recent
Municipal and Panchayat elections and the resulting erosion of its
credibility. The Congress found some relief in the victory of its
candidate, Botsa Jhansi Lakshmi, in Andhra Pradesh's other
parliamentary by-election, in the Bobbili constituency. The
Congress candidate defeated the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of former
Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. With loss in Bobbili, TDP's
strength in Lok Sabha is reduced from five to four.

KARNATAKA RESULT WILL FURTHER STRAIN RULING COALITION
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3. (SBU) Former Deputy Chief Minister Siddaramiah, prominent
defector from the Janata Dal-Secular (JD(S)) to the Congress party,
won the by-election for Karnataka's Chamundeshwari assembly seat.
Siddaramiah narrowly defeated his nearest rival, Mr. Shivabasappa of
the JD(S). The closely fought election is seen as a referendum on
the administration of Karnataka Chief Minister Kumaraswamy who
personally campaigned for the JD(S) candidate. Political analysts
believe the result will put further strain on the ruling BJP-JD(S)
coalition, as the BJP withdrew its candidate from the by-election in
order to present a united front. Analysts foresee the BJP demanding
a greater say in the administration of the state, which could cause
the ruling coalition to collapse.

CPI(M) NARROWLY RETAINS NORTH KERALA SEAT
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4. (SBU) The ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) retained
the Thiruvambadi Assembly seat with a much reduced margin. George
Thomas (CPI-(M)) scored 246 votes more than the Indian Union Muslim
League (IUML) candidate V.M Ummer. The IUML is aligned with the
Congress party-led United Democratic Front in Kerala and is part of
the UPA governing coalition at the Center. In the constituency,
which has a substantial Muslim population, the CPI(M) as usual
played the "Islamic card," with its leaders criticizing the UPA
Government for its "shameless support" of the U.S. and for not
demanding the withdrawal of the death sentence of Saddam Hussein in
Iraq. Local political issues seemed to have played a bigger role in
the by-election, however. Continuing infighting between Chief
Minister Achuthanandan's supporters and opponents within the CPI(M)
has resulted in some erosion of the government's popularity.

JOLT TO KARNATAKA GOVERNMENT, BOOST TO TELENGANA
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5. (SBU) COMMENT: The by-election results may further destabilize
the Karnataka state government and may cause the Congress party to
reconsider the issue of the Telengana statehood in Andhra Pradesh
before the issue causes more political damage. The Kerala result
and the continuing infighting may prompt the national CPI(M)
leadership to intervene again to sort out the issues in the Kerala
branch of the party. END COMMENT.
HOPPER