MUSLIM POLITICS OF KERALA: EMERGING HARDLINERS A CAUSE OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CHENNAI 002584

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR ASEC KISL CASC IN
SUBJECT: MUSLIM POLITICS OF KERALA: EMERGING HARDLINERS A CAUSE OF
CONCERN

REF: A) Chennai 1857 B) Chennai 476 (both notal)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kerala's widely reported sympathy for the
convicted Saddam Hussein is a pointer to the direction of Islamic
politics in this south Indian state where 24% of the population is
Sunni Muslim. Driven by anti-Iraq war sentiments and leftist
politics, Kerala's Muslim population strongly opposes U.S. policies
in the Muslim world. Although the mainstream religious and
political groups discourage violence, a few newer organizations have
attracted security agencies' attention due to their militant
tendencies and suspect fund sources. Since U.S. Mission programs in
North Kerala might attract protest demonstrations, we recommend
close coordination with state police before organizing public
events. END SUMMARY

WHERE SADDDAM HUSSEIN IS A HERO
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2. (SBU) Perhaps no other Indian state has more Saddam Hussein fans
than Kerala. Local Malayalam language press, particularly the Muslim
newspapers, reacted strongly to the recent Saddam verdict. Most
parts of Kerala, including a beach and a junction named after
Saddam, witnessed angry demonstrations. Even the moderate and
soft-spoken President of the Indian Union Muslim League, Panakkad
Shihab Ali Thangal, did not mince words while condemning the
"inhumane verdict that blatantly violated international justice
systems." The Economic Times newspaper noted in an article titled
"For Kerala Parties, Saddam is Their Own:" "If Saddam Hussein were
to evade the noose and decide to start afresh in politics, Kerala
looks to be a good option for him. Going by the public reaction
here, he seems to be as much a hero in Tirur or Thiruvananthapuram
as he is in Tikrit."

MUSLIM DEMOGRAPHICS: HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION
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3. (SBU) The only religious community experiencing growth in Kerala,
Muslims now form 24.7% of the state population. The large majority
of Muslims of North Kerala are known as "Mappilas" (also,
"Moplahs"),who include the descendants of Arabs who had trade and
marital links with the Malabar Coast as far back as the 8th Century.
Kerala's Muslim population is concentrated in the northern
districts, particularly Malappuram, Palakkad, Kozhikode, Kannur,
Wynad and Kasergode. Mostly subsistence farmers, the Muslims lag
behind the state averages in socio-economic indicators such as
general and women's literacy, higher education and employment.
According to census figures, unemployment among Kerala's Muslims is
much higher than among Hindus and Christians. In recent decades,
however, the large scale migration of workers to the Gulf countries
has lifted a significant number of Muslim families above the poverty
level. Foreign remittances make a substantial contribution to
Kerala's economy.

HISTORY OF CONFLICT WITH HINDUS AND COLONIAL RULERS
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4. (SBU) Although many believe communal relations have always been
peaceful in Kerala, that is not the case. During the 19th and early
20th centuries, the Mappila tenants of Malabar staged armed attacks
against the oppressive Hindu landlords and their British supporters,
killing thousands. According to Kerala historians, the Mappila
outbreaks were largely due to agrarian discontent and poverty as
well as to religious fanaticism. In 1855, the British District
Magistrate of Malabar at Calicut (Kozhikode) was killed by rioting
Mapillas. Surprisingly, "foreign issues" have also caused communal
uprising in Malabar: the "Moplah Rebellion" of 1921 was a violent
uprising of Malabar Muslims against British police who tried to
suppress the "Khilafat Movement," a strike against the British
rulers of India demanding restoration of the Turkish Caliphate.
British forces violently suppressed the rebellion, which lasted for
several months.

MUSLIM POLITICAL PARTIES: COMMUNAL OVERLAP
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5. (SBU) The advent of multi-party coalition politics has now
ensured Muslim involvement in Kerala's political life, providing a
framework for different communities to work together. The Muslim
vote is a major swing factor in present day Kerala politics. Kerala
is one of the few Indian states with viable, exclusive Muslim
political parties. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML),the
leading Muslim party, has been allied with the Congress for over two

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decades and is part of the current UPA government at the Center. In
recent years, corruption, nepotism and the sex scandals of some of
its leaders has led to some erosion of IUML support, particularly
among its youth cadre. Islamic hardliners and the Leftist parties
constantly barrage the IUML for its links with the Congress party,
which is perceived to be ineffective in supporting the Muslims of
India in the face of the "Hindutva" (communal Hindu) onslaught.


6. (SBU) The Iraq situation has given the IUML's opponents one more
handy weapon. The Communists and the Islamists separately attack
Congress and the Muslim League for their passivity, even complicity,
with regard to the U.S. actions. Most recently, the IUML General
Secretary and Union Minister of State for External Affairs E.

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Ahmed's "awkward silence" against the Saddam verdict was the subject
of ridicule in an editorial in the popular Muslim daily, Madhyamam.


THE MORE MILITANT PDP
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7. (SBU) Of the two smaller Kerala Muslim political parties, the
Indian National League and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),both
of which supported the Leftist coalition in the 2006 Assembly
elections, the PDP is more controversial for its alleged militancy.
Abdul Nasser Madani (also spelled Madhani),the founder-leader of
the PDP, has been in a Tamil Nadu prison for eight years awaiting
completion of his trial for alleged complicity in the 1998 serial
bombings in Coimbatore by the banned "Al-Umma." Those bombings,
which included an attempt to assassinate BJP leader L.K. Advani,
killed 58 persons and injured 250. Despite prosecution charges of
criminal conspiracy and logistical support for the terrorist act,
Madani enjoys much sympathy from Kerala Muslims. Since the
bombings, Kerala police have kept close watch over PDP activities.
Nonetheless, in September 2005, PDP workers allegedly high-jacked
and burned a Tamil Nadu bus near Cochin, Kerala, protesting the
continued incarceration of Madani.

MUSLIM RELIGIOUS GROUPS: THE POLITICAL OVERLAP
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8. (SBU) The predominantly Sunni population of Kerala is divided
along denominational lines. Leadership rivalry seems to be the
prime cause of division between the two leading groups of Sunnis
(the "EK Group" and the "AP Group"),although many see the AP group
as "ultra conservatives." While the "EK group" is generally
supportive of the IUML party, the leader of the "AP Group,"
Kanthapuram A.P. Aboobacker, has traditionally supported the
Leftists. A third, smaller Sunni group, the Mujahids, part of a
reform movement that started in Kerala in the 1920s, stands for a
purer form of Islam free from syncretistic elements such as worship
at the graves of saints. The Mujahids themselves split into two
groups in 2002: one group seeks to emphasize the group's purist
("Salafi") ideology, the other wants to be more inclusive in outlook
and to engage in social work.


9. (SBU) A fourth Sunni group, the Jamaate-Islami Hind Kerala (JIH),
is a relatively small but influential sect of Muslims attracting the
educated and politically conscious. Standing for a hardline Islamic
faith-based world order, JIH routinely issues directives to its
members on which parties and candidates to support in elections.
Solidarity, the youth wing of the JIH, is very active in the
anti-Coca Cola agitations of Kerala. Although infamous for its
militant rhetoric, the JIH, per se, has no history of organizing
terrorist acts.

ALLEGED TERROR LINKS OF SIMI
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10. (SBU) The Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI),banned for
its alleged involvement in several terrorist acts, is in fact a
breakaway group of the national JIH. Kerala police suspect that
SIMI is still operating clandestinely on a small scale in Kerala,
under the cover of other Muslim organizations. Wanted by the Indian
police for several terrorist acts, C.A.M. Basheer, is a former
President of the SIMI and a Keralite. A trained aeronautical
engineer, he has been on the run since 1993. He was believed to
have been operating from the Gulf countries, but now his whereabouts
are unknown. Indian Police suspect him to be a key link between the
Lashkar-e-Toiba and SIMI.

SECRETIVE NDF CONSISTENLY OPPOSES THE U.S.

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11. (SBU) One of the fastest growing, most controversial and
secretive Muslim organizations in Kerala is the National Development

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Front (NDF). The NDF was formed in Malappuram, Kerala, in 1993,
ostensibly to fight against human rights violations through peaceful
means. However, many consider the NDF to be a cover for Islamic
extremism. IUML leader and former Public Works Minister M.K. Muneer
(protect) told post that the NDF may not have developed connections
with major terror networks such as the Al-Qaida, but it is run by
former SIMI activists and is capable of organizing smaller-scale
bombings. According to Muneer, the NDF has been infiltrating the
IUML party despite a party decision in 1999 to resist such moves.
Muneer blamed "discredited IUML leaders" such as Treasurer and
former Minister P.K. Kunjalikkutty for shielding the NDF for the
leaders' own selfish interests. Baburaj (protect),a prominent
local journalist based in Malappuram, pointed out the NDF is
involved in most of the communal attacks that occur in North Kerala.



12. (SBU) The judicial commission that investigated the 2003
massacre of eight Hindus in Marad, Kozhikode exposed the NDF and
IUML workers' active involvement in the planning and execution of
the crime. More recently, six members of an "NDF hit team" were
sentenced to life imprisonment for hacking to death a Communist
worker who allegedly molested a Muslim girl at Nadapuram near
Kozhikode in 2001.


13. (SBU) The NDF has consistently opposed U.S. Mission activities
in Kozhikode: In August 2006 against an outreach exhibit program of
the American Library (ref A); in September 2004 against a visit of
Consulate officials, falsely accusing them of planning to "hijack a
cultural center;" in December 2003 against a Consulate Public
Affairs Seminar on "Islam and Women."


POLICE CHIEF SKEPTICAL OF NDF BONAFIDES
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14. (SBU) Kozhikode Police Commissioner Balram Upadhyay (protect)
told Post that the NDF "seems to be spending a lot of money," saying
he has no idea of its sources. With millions of Keralites working
in the Middle East and elsewhere, and billions flowing in through
official channels and "hawala" (unofficial money channels),the
Police Commissioner said it is difficult to monitor all external
links of Kerala. When asked about former Police Commissioner Neena
Rawat's reported deposition before a judicial commission in 2005
that NDF had sourced funds form Iran and Pakistan, Upadhyay said: "I
cannot deny that the NDF has foreign connections and money sources."
Journalist Baburaj pointed out that the NDF had enough money to
quickly launch four editions of its newspaper "Thejas" at a time
when even established newspaper houses are struggling financially.


MODERATING FACTORS STILL AT WORK, BUT LOSING APPEAL
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15. (SBU) According to Hussein Madavoor (protect),a prominent
Muslim leader of the Mujahid faction, moderating factors are still
at work in Kerala. None of the prominent religious groups encourage
radicalization. Even the AP Sunni Group which, according to
Madavoor had resorted to some religious killings in the past, has
stepped back having seen the negative reactions from Kerala society.
He believes that the NDF is not capable of organizing large terror
strikes, although he conceded that "a few people are enough to cause
trouble."


16. (SBU) Journalist Baburaj believes communal relations in Kerala
have become more precarious because there are no credible Muslim
leaders to restrain passions. Muslim religious/political leaders
such as Panakkad Shihab Thangal, once unquestioned, are gradually
losing their appeal because of the increasing unpopularity of the
IUML. "In this situation, if a divisive issue comes to the fore, it
could just get out of control," Baburaj said.

SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR USG PROGRAMS
--------------


17. (SBU) All interlocutors pointed out that widespread opposition
to U.S. policies prevail in North Kerala. The various newspapers of
the area, the Madhyamam newspaper of the Jamaate Islami, Thejas of
NDF, Siraj of the AP Sunni faction, Varthamanam of the Mujahids,
Chandrika of the Indian Union Muslim League, have contributed much

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to creating this environment. Hussein Madavoor pointed out that
because of the perceived religious overtones many local Muslims
attach to global anti-terror campaign, no Muslim leaders who
publicly support U.S. government programs could survive in their
positions. Given these circumstances, U.S. programs in North
Kerala, even if non-political, will most likely attract protest
demonstrations.


18. (SBU) "One cannot rule out demonstrations in a democracy," said
Police Commissioner Upadhyay (protect) adding that "chances of
trouble also cannot be totally ruled out." According to him,
however, with reasonable precautions, U.S. visitors should have no
problem in North Kerala. He requested to be informed in advance of
any U.S. programs in order to ensure better security coordination.

BETTER MONITORING AND SECURITY COORDINATION NEEDED
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19. (SBU) COMMENT: Frederick Forsyth's description of Kerala as a
"receptive territory for Islamist extremism" in his latest
bestseller "Afghan," recently focused public attention on the
hardline groups that have emerged in the state. In Kerala,
Forsyth's view was widely criticized as alarmist and exaggerated.
Kerala society traditionally has strongly disapproved violent
ideologies while favoring their associated democratic expressions.
For example, the Naxalite violence prevalent in some other parts of
India has no public support in Kerala, whereas the democratic
expressions of the "communism" of the CPI(M) and the CPI enjoy wide
support. Violence is unlikely to find support from Kerala's
traditional Islamic community, either. However, given the large
scale unemployment and the "siege mentality" that some sections of
the Islamic media seek to spread, we endorse the recommendation that
the activities of suspect organizations among Keralite youth and the
use of "hawala" money transactions need to be better monitored. We
also recommend that U.S. Mission programs in North Kerala seek
adequate security from the helpful local police. END COMMENT
HOPPER