Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CARACAS757
2006-03-23 10:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:
SUMATE'S ALEJANDRO PLAZ REVIEWS ONGOING PROJECTS,
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000757
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT FOR DRL/PHD ODESOTO AND USOAS JMAISTO
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE'S ALEJANDRO PLAZ REVIEWS ONGOING PROJECTS,
REGIONAL SENTIMENTS
REF: A. CARACAS 00101
B. CARACAS 00113
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)
-------
Summary
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000757
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT FOR DRL/PHD ODESOTO AND USOAS JMAISTO
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE'S ALEJANDRO PLAZ REVIEWS ONGOING PROJECTS,
REGIONAL SENTIMENTS
REF: A. CARACAS 00101
B. CARACAS 00113
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) PolCouns met with electoral NGO Sumate President
Alejandro Plaz March 21 to discuss the progress of Sumate's
audit of the electoral registry and his recent trip to Peru
and the United States. Their temporary reprieve from trial
is allowing them to re-focus on their electoral activities.
The audit is in the beginning stages, but may not receive
backing from the nation's universities, as hoped, due to
their rectors' insistence on seeking National Electoral
Council support and government funding. Meanwhile, the NGO's
preparations for a primary for a single opposition candidate
and installation of NGO congresses nationwide appear to be on
track. Plaz also noted rumors he had heard during his recent
travel that Venezuela may declare Inter-American Human Rights
Commission rulings non-binding and was threatening to
withdraw from the OAS. He expressed concern that such
decisions suggested that President Chavez was hardening to
international opinion. While the Venezuelan Ambassador may
likely be spreading these rumors, we believe the government's
recent backing down from the Sumate and Ibeyise Pacheco cases
suggests Chavez may indeed still be sensitive to
international opinion. End summary.
--------------
Trial on Hold, but may go regional
--------------
2. (C) On March 21, Sumate President Alejandro Plaz met with
Poloffs to discuss the progress of Sumate's audit of the
electoral registry, other ongoing projects, and his recent
trip to Peru and the United States. Plaz told PolCouns the
trial against Sumate for receiving NED funds appeared to be
on hold indefinitely. The judge that was dismissed from the
case reportedly still has the files so the case cannot be
passed to another magistrate. Preeminent human rights lawyer
Carlos Ayala has approached Sumate about taking their case to
the Inter-American Human Rights Commission's (IACHR). Plaz
said Ayala thinks the case could set a precedent for NGOs
across the region given that several countries, including
Colombia, are currently debating laws aimed at restricting
NGO financing.
-------------- --------------
Electoral Registry Audit Proceeds Without University Backing
-------------- --------------
3. (C) Sumate's proposal to audit the electoral registry
appears to be on track, but may not receive official
endorsements from the nation's four top universities
(Central, Simon Bolivar, the Andes, and Catholic University
Andres Bello) as hoped (ref a). Plaz explained that the
rectors had decided to seek formal National Electoral Council
(CNE) approval and government financing for the project.
Wary of the CNE's stalling tactics, Sumate preferred not to
wait for CNE approval, lest they have no time to press the
CNE to correct any serious flaws detected in the registry.
The universities are still allowing Sumate to work with their
professors, however, and they are now developing a
methodology for auditing the electoral registry.
CARACAS 00000757 002 OF 003
4. (C) So far Sumate's expectations of the CNE have proven
correct. After several postponements, CNE President Jorge
Rodriguez finally met with the university rectors March 14.
According to CNE director Sobella Mejias (protect),who
attended the meeting, Rodriguez appeared to like the
rectors' proposal, but she, too, expects him to stall on the
proposal. Rodriguez asked the rectors to submit a formal
proposal and cease their public criticism of the CNE in order
to be considered. (Comment: Now that the CNE has announced
the favorable results of the CAPEL audit (septel),it will
likely argue that no independent audit is necessary.)
--------------
Other Projects for 2006
--------------
5. (C) Plaz opined that the best voters could hope for is
that "five Carrasqueros are appointed to the CNE. (Note:
This is an allusion to former CNE President Franciso
Carrasquero, who presided over the 2004 recall referendum.
At first, he was perceived to be a neutral director, but over
time revealed his pro-government bias with questionable
decisions in President Chavez' favor. He was named to the
Supreme Court in 2005.)
6. (C) Despite this pessimistic outlook and the current
potential candidates' unwillingness, Sumate continues to plan
for a primary to choose an opposition candidate. (Note: Post
received a copy of a letter from Sumate asking for volunteers
to run voting centers for the event.) Plaz recognized the
primary could open a fierce competition among the political
parties that could leave the winner very weak. Still, one of
his secondary goals appeared to be moving the political
parties beyond a debate over electoral conditions to one on
campaign issues, such as unemployment and security. Plaz
also mentioned that Sumate's other project, the National
Congress of NGOs, was proceeding well. So far, congresses
have been installed in 12 states and Sumate expects to have
19 by the end of April. The national federation will be
established in May.
--------------
Disillusionment with Regional Prospects
--------------
7. (C) Plaz told PolCouns his recent trip to Peru and
conversations with OAS Ambassadors in Washington left him
depressed about the future of democracy-promoting NGOs in the
region. In Peru, he met with NGO leaders, the media, and
representatives from several presidential candidates'
camps--except from Ollanta Humala's, who refused to return
his calls. He likened Peru to Venezuela's situation in 1998
when President Chavez was elected (poor distribution of
wealth, disillusionment with political parties, etc.) and
said Humala appeared to have a better chance at winning the
Peruvian elections than he previously thought. If he won,
Plaz thought Chavez' influence with Humala would lead to Peru
following the Bolivarian Revolution's example of slowly
closing off space for NGOs. (Note: Plaz mentioned plans to
visit Mexico and Colombia next.)
8. (C) In Washington, Plaz met with OAS Ambassadors from
several countries, including Brazil, and OAS 2005 election
observation mission leader Ruben Perina. Several Ambassadors
told him that Venezuela's OAS Ambassador Jorge Valero has
CARACAS 00000757 003 OF 003
privately warned that his country may soon pull out of the
organization. Plaz opined the withdraw may be linked to
several embarrassments the Venezuelan government has suffered
in the OAS, including the negative observation report on the
December 2005 legislative elections and its expected
placement in chapter four of the Inter-American Human Rights
Commission's (IACHR) report. In Peru, a contact who sits on
the IACHR told him that Venezuela has reportedly decided the
IACHR's decisions would not be binding and was considering
taking the same position with respect to Inter-American
Court's rulings. If true, Plaz feared these events might be
a sign that Chavez is hardening to international opinion.
Separately, Plaz was further disappointed by the Brazilian
Ambassador's refusal to help him make appointments at the
Foreign Ministry. The Ambassador told him his government
traditionally has focused its foreign policy on relations
with governments and has little interest in dealing with
NGOs, a sentiment former Brazilian President Henrique Cardoso
confirmed.
9. (C) When asked if any of the ambassadors mentioned
feeling pressured to take a pro-Venezuelan stances, Plaz said
most complained instead about Valero's tendency to bully his
counterparts--particularly those from the Caribbean--in
private settings. He also said Perina claimed not to be
receiving any pressure to soften the observation report from
the BRV or Secretary General Insulza, the only person Perina
said could exert influence on him. In fact, Perina told Plaz
the observation mission's final report would be stronger than
the preliminary one.
--------------
Comment
--------------
10. (C) The government's decision to hold off on the Sumate
trial--no matter how temporary--is allowing the NGO to
re-focus on its electoral activities. We will continue to
periodically meet with Sumate leaders to check the progress
of their ambitious agenda. We find it difficult to believe
that Venezuela would actually follow through on its apparent
threat to pull out of the OAS. Such an action would likely
do more harm than good to Chavez' international image,
something he is still sensitive to judging by his
government's backing off on Sumate and journalist Ibeyise
Pacheco in response to international pressure.
BROWNFIELD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT FOR DRL/PHD ODESOTO AND USOAS JMAISTO
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
FRC FT LAUDERDALE FOR CLAMBERT
COPENHAGEN FOR DLAWTON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE'S ALEJANDRO PLAZ REVIEWS ONGOING PROJECTS,
REGIONAL SENTIMENTS
REF: A. CARACAS 00101
B. CARACAS 00113
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) PolCouns met with electoral NGO Sumate President
Alejandro Plaz March 21 to discuss the progress of Sumate's
audit of the electoral registry and his recent trip to Peru
and the United States. Their temporary reprieve from trial
is allowing them to re-focus on their electoral activities.
The audit is in the beginning stages, but may not receive
backing from the nation's universities, as hoped, due to
their rectors' insistence on seeking National Electoral
Council support and government funding. Meanwhile, the NGO's
preparations for a primary for a single opposition candidate
and installation of NGO congresses nationwide appear to be on
track. Plaz also noted rumors he had heard during his recent
travel that Venezuela may declare Inter-American Human Rights
Commission rulings non-binding and was threatening to
withdraw from the OAS. He expressed concern that such
decisions suggested that President Chavez was hardening to
international opinion. While the Venezuelan Ambassador may
likely be spreading these rumors, we believe the government's
recent backing down from the Sumate and Ibeyise Pacheco cases
suggests Chavez may indeed still be sensitive to
international opinion. End summary.
--------------
Trial on Hold, but may go regional
--------------
2. (C) On March 21, Sumate President Alejandro Plaz met with
Poloffs to discuss the progress of Sumate's audit of the
electoral registry, other ongoing projects, and his recent
trip to Peru and the United States. Plaz told PolCouns the
trial against Sumate for receiving NED funds appeared to be
on hold indefinitely. The judge that was dismissed from the
case reportedly still has the files so the case cannot be
passed to another magistrate. Preeminent human rights lawyer
Carlos Ayala has approached Sumate about taking their case to
the Inter-American Human Rights Commission's (IACHR). Plaz
said Ayala thinks the case could set a precedent for NGOs
across the region given that several countries, including
Colombia, are currently debating laws aimed at restricting
NGO financing.
-------------- --------------
Electoral Registry Audit Proceeds Without University Backing
-------------- --------------
3. (C) Sumate's proposal to audit the electoral registry
appears to be on track, but may not receive official
endorsements from the nation's four top universities
(Central, Simon Bolivar, the Andes, and Catholic University
Andres Bello) as hoped (ref a). Plaz explained that the
rectors had decided to seek formal National Electoral Council
(CNE) approval and government financing for the project.
Wary of the CNE's stalling tactics, Sumate preferred not to
wait for CNE approval, lest they have no time to press the
CNE to correct any serious flaws detected in the registry.
The universities are still allowing Sumate to work with their
professors, however, and they are now developing a
methodology for auditing the electoral registry.
CARACAS 00000757 002 OF 003
4. (C) So far Sumate's expectations of the CNE have proven
correct. After several postponements, CNE President Jorge
Rodriguez finally met with the university rectors March 14.
According to CNE director Sobella Mejias (protect),who
attended the meeting, Rodriguez appeared to like the
rectors' proposal, but she, too, expects him to stall on the
proposal. Rodriguez asked the rectors to submit a formal
proposal and cease their public criticism of the CNE in order
to be considered. (Comment: Now that the CNE has announced
the favorable results of the CAPEL audit (septel),it will
likely argue that no independent audit is necessary.)
--------------
Other Projects for 2006
--------------
5. (C) Plaz opined that the best voters could hope for is
that "five Carrasqueros are appointed to the CNE. (Note:
This is an allusion to former CNE President Franciso
Carrasquero, who presided over the 2004 recall referendum.
At first, he was perceived to be a neutral director, but over
time revealed his pro-government bias with questionable
decisions in President Chavez' favor. He was named to the
Supreme Court in 2005.)
6. (C) Despite this pessimistic outlook and the current
potential candidates' unwillingness, Sumate continues to plan
for a primary to choose an opposition candidate. (Note: Post
received a copy of a letter from Sumate asking for volunteers
to run voting centers for the event.) Plaz recognized the
primary could open a fierce competition among the political
parties that could leave the winner very weak. Still, one of
his secondary goals appeared to be moving the political
parties beyond a debate over electoral conditions to one on
campaign issues, such as unemployment and security. Plaz
also mentioned that Sumate's other project, the National
Congress of NGOs, was proceeding well. So far, congresses
have been installed in 12 states and Sumate expects to have
19 by the end of April. The national federation will be
established in May.
--------------
Disillusionment with Regional Prospects
--------------
7. (C) Plaz told PolCouns his recent trip to Peru and
conversations with OAS Ambassadors in Washington left him
depressed about the future of democracy-promoting NGOs in the
region. In Peru, he met with NGO leaders, the media, and
representatives from several presidential candidates'
camps--except from Ollanta Humala's, who refused to return
his calls. He likened Peru to Venezuela's situation in 1998
when President Chavez was elected (poor distribution of
wealth, disillusionment with political parties, etc.) and
said Humala appeared to have a better chance at winning the
Peruvian elections than he previously thought. If he won,
Plaz thought Chavez' influence with Humala would lead to Peru
following the Bolivarian Revolution's example of slowly
closing off space for NGOs. (Note: Plaz mentioned plans to
visit Mexico and Colombia next.)
8. (C) In Washington, Plaz met with OAS Ambassadors from
several countries, including Brazil, and OAS 2005 election
observation mission leader Ruben Perina. Several Ambassadors
told him that Venezuela's OAS Ambassador Jorge Valero has
CARACAS 00000757 003 OF 003
privately warned that his country may soon pull out of the
organization. Plaz opined the withdraw may be linked to
several embarrassments the Venezuelan government has suffered
in the OAS, including the negative observation report on the
December 2005 legislative elections and its expected
placement in chapter four of the Inter-American Human Rights
Commission's (IACHR) report. In Peru, a contact who sits on
the IACHR told him that Venezuela has reportedly decided the
IACHR's decisions would not be binding and was considering
taking the same position with respect to Inter-American
Court's rulings. If true, Plaz feared these events might be
a sign that Chavez is hardening to international opinion.
Separately, Plaz was further disappointed by the Brazilian
Ambassador's refusal to help him make appointments at the
Foreign Ministry. The Ambassador told him his government
traditionally has focused its foreign policy on relations
with governments and has little interest in dealing with
NGOs, a sentiment former Brazilian President Henrique Cardoso
confirmed.
9. (C) When asked if any of the ambassadors mentioned
feeling pressured to take a pro-Venezuelan stances, Plaz said
most complained instead about Valero's tendency to bully his
counterparts--particularly those from the Caribbean--in
private settings. He also said Perina claimed not to be
receiving any pressure to soften the observation report from
the BRV or Secretary General Insulza, the only person Perina
said could exert influence on him. In fact, Perina told Plaz
the observation mission's final report would be stronger than
the preliminary one.
--------------
Comment
--------------
10. (C) The government's decision to hold off on the Sumate
trial--no matter how temporary--is allowing the NGO to
re-focus on its electoral activities. We will continue to
periodically meet with Sumate leaders to check the progress
of their ambitious agenda. We find it difficult to believe
that Venezuela would actually follow through on its apparent
threat to pull out of the OAS. Such an action would likely
do more harm than good to Chavez' international image,
something he is still sensitive to judging by his
government's backing off on Sumate and journalist Ibeyise
Pacheco in response to international pressure.
BROWNFIELD