CORRECTED COPY: STATE OF VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 003518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DFISK AND DTOMLINSON
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS TO USOAS AND USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2026
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE PREL
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: STATE OF VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL
OBSERVATION EFFORTS

REF: A. CARACAS 03494

B. CARACAS 03506

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. The electoral observation missions (EOMs)
have missed most of the key "lead-up" events in the electoral
preparation process and have had to scale back previously
planned activities. It will be very difficult for them to
mount a comprehensive observation effort. In effect, they
will be basing conclusions on an incomplete, cursory snapshot
of the very end of the presidential campaign. In total, we
expect there will be approximately 225 international
accredited observers, and approximately 800 accredited
domestic observers. End Summary.

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CARTER CENTER MISSION
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2. (C) The Carter Center is represented by a small group of
technical observers that plan to work with the EU EOM to
monitor the security of the voting system on election day at
CNE headquarters. The group will consist of twelve technical
experts, mostly from the State of Georgia, who have
familiarity with the voting machines in use - since Georgia
uses the same ones in its elections.


3. (C) The Carter Center had to scrap more medium-term plans
to analyze campaign media coverage, one of the areas of
Chavez' policy most criticized by the EU and OAS during the
December 2005 National Assembly elections, because of late
CNE approval/mission deployment. The CNE previously rejected
a Carter Center proposal to evaluate existing -- and largely
inadequate -- audits of the electoral registry.

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EUROPEAN UNION MISSION
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4. (C) After receiving an invitation to observe in June, the
EU signed its MOU with the CNE on November 15. EU EOM head
Monica Frassoni, who has experience in regional electoral
observation in Bolivia, has been in Venezuela since November
15 with 10 core team members. Thirty "long-term" observers
arrived the week of November 24, to be followed by 100
"short-term" observers by December 1. In total, the EU is
planning to have 126 observers on the ground. It will be the
largest international EOM, with the most lead time on the
ground. The EU EOM does not plan to issue any public
statement, absent any egregious problems, until the morning
of December 5.

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OAS MISSION DEVELOPMENTS
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5. (C) The OAS EOM team is on the ground but with few people.
Ambassador Brownfield met with OAS EOM Head and former
Uruguayan Ambassador to the OAS Jose Enrique Fischer on
November 29 (REF A). Fischer noted that the captahuella
issue and adequate opposition representation at the mesas
were issues the OAS planned to raise with the CNE. Although
Fischer noted that the OAS is talking with the EU Mission,
both he and the EU representatives indicated they had only
had time for a couple of brief meetings.


6. (C) OAS Assistant Secretary for Political Affairs Dante
Caputo arrives in Caracas on Saturday, December 2. Former
Canadian Ambassador to the OAS Paul Durand arrived November
30, although it still is not clear what his role in the EOM
will be other than serving as a "close advisor" to Fischer.
(Comment: We expect Caputo to be closely following EOM
developments and reporting directly to OAS SYG Insulza
regarding mission concerns).


7. (C) The OAS EOM will focus on monitoring the audits
remaining for the fingerprint machines, campaign abuses,
distribution of election materials, as well as voting day
procedures, including electoral violence or intimidation. The
OAS plans to individually field 60 observers throughout the
country, with 5 additional technical observers in the central

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tally center here in Caracas. The 60 observers will witness
the opening and closing of tables, and support the OAS Quick
Count. OAS EOM officials however told Canadian DCM Vicken
Koundakjian late November 30 that they would be able to field
less than 40 observers at polling stations.


8. (C) EOM technical advisor Elizabeth Spehar noted to
PolCons and USOAS officer her belief that the OAS will have
adequate access to the CNE's central voting tally center,
although she noted it will be physically tight difficult to
accommodate many people there. (Comment: The Rosales camp
has indicated concern that the CNE may claim that it does not
have adequate room in the center for opposition party
watchers, a concern which the OAS plans to raise with the
CNE. End comment).


9. (C) Although the OAS EOM agreement with the CNE appears to
prohibit the EOM from making public statements without prior
CNE vetting (per CNE Resolution 061005-858),Spehar noted
that Fischer and Insulza are coordinating very closely. She
also indicated that OAS press statements and reporting will
occur with Insulza's direct review and guidance. (Comment:
Insulza seems to be watching the EOM very closely from afar.
End comment).


10. (C) Asked about last years' unfulfilled OAS
recommendations, Spehar said that if the EOM Chief Juan
Enrique Fischer agreed, the OAS EOM would discuss these in
its post-election press conference and preliminary report.
Spehar confirmed that the OAS final EOM report will be
presented via Insulza to the OAS Permanent Council.


11. (SBU) Current level of donor support for the OAS EOM, per
the OAS Secretariat:

Dutch: 225,000 USD
Canada: 100,000 CAN
Brazil: 10,000 USD
OAS Regular Fund: 18,000 USD
TOTAL: Approx. 338,000 USD

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QUICK COUNTS: TO BE CARRIED OUT BY OAS AND ROSALES
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12. (C) The OAS said it will include 60 "primary" table
samples, and 20-30 "secondary" table samples in its Quick
Count. However, the OAS is not yet sure how many secondary
samples it will be able to secure because of the time needed
to get observers from their primary table to their secondary
table; the two will likely be quite far from each other. It
is also not clear when the results of the count will be
released, since the closing of the mesas is expected to be
extended well into the evening. (Comment: The tables are now
set to close at 4pm on Sunday, although extensions are common
in Venezuela. End Comment). The OAS is using the same
Brazilian elections expert for this quick count tabulation it
has used in the past for both Nicaragua and Ecuador.


13. (C) The Rosales camp will also be conducting two "quick
counts," planning to report results from about 200 polling
stations when the official tally sheets (actas) are posted.
These counts will supplement information available during and
immediately after the electoral process from Rosales' poll
watchers (testigos). Rosales plans to have party testigos at
each of the 33,000 mesas in the country on election day, in
each of the 11,000 voting centers. However, we understand
that the Rosales campaign is still struggling to deploy both
enough trained testigos and the technology capable of quickl)0/\dion
remain serious challenges for the Rosales camp.

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U.S. EMBASSY OBSERVATION
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14. (C) The embassy is planning to field 15 teams of two
people, with roughly 55 people in total including drivers and
personnel at the control center in the embassy, to observe

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the elections without formal CNE accreditation. (Comment:
No embassies in Caracas have separate accreditation to
observe, although a number of third-country embassy personnel
do have accreditation to observe via the EU mission). Last
year, US Embassy informal observers were able to enter most
voting centers without official accreditation with
transparent rules of engagement. The embassy teams will be
deployed in Caracas and in eight additional states.

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DOMESTIC NGO OBSERVERS
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15. (C) Ojo Electoral, the largest independent domestic
observer NGO group, had planned to have 1,000 observers
accredited by the CNE. However, post learned November 29
that this number has been cut by the CNE down to 400
observers, severely hindering Ojo's ability to observe. The
OAS plans to raise this issue with the CNE directly.


16. (C) Radar de los Barrios, a pro-Chavez group with no
previous election monitoring experience and no training for
election observation, plans to have 50 accredited observers.
Radar de los Barrios has a heavy representation of chavistas
- despite the leader of the group being from the opposition.
The focus of Radar is incidencia publica in the barrios,
trying to force the government to resolve local issues.


17. (C) Asamblea de Educadores, a pro-opposition group that
has made some overtures to the BRV over an education reform
bill, has been accredited with 350 observers. The group also
has no observer experience, and may not even have 350 regular
members. The Asemblea de Educadores was among the
organizations that the government loudly decried in 2004 for
having received funding from NED, and despite efforts to
change their image still are perceived as opposition.
Asemblea de Educadores will be coordinating with Radar de los
Barrios.


18. (C) Comment: Simplistically, Asemblea represents the
opposition, Ojo the middle, and Radar the chavistas. But
with Ojo's numbers cut back, and the inclusion of two other
organizations who will be unlikely to mount a credible
observation effort, the net result is symbolic electoral
observation on the part of civil society. End Comment.

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POLITICAL OBSERVATION
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19. Poll (mesa) workers were chosen by lottery by the CNE, a
process that has generally appeared to have been fair --
although CNE training of these workers, particularly those
associated with the opposition has been very slow. The CNE
can appoint selected substitutes in the event that not enough
workers are trained.


20. Party testigos were accredited for observation after
registering via an online application supported by the CNE.
OAS' Spehar reports that this process has gone well, noting
that the head of the CNE "knows her onions" and appears to be
working with the opposition to ensure that their testigos are
registered for election day.

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COMMENT
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21. (C) The December 3 Venezuelan Presidential elections
would have benefited from a robust international observation
effort had the missions begun earlier with strong leadership.
Post continues to believe it to be very unlikely that the
missions will now be able to mount an effective and
comprehensive observation effort given their late arrival.
Domestic observers continue to face basic accreditation
challenges.
BROWNFIELD