AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH EU TROIKA -- ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 002238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USOAS FOR JMAISTO
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EU OAS VE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH EU TROIKA -- ELECTION
OBSERVATION AND UNSC


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Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM R. BROWNFIELD FOR REASON 1.4 D

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Summary
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1. (C) During a lunch for EU Troika representatives at the
Ambassador's residence July 26, Finnish Ambassador Mikko
Pyhala said the EU received a formal invitation to observe
the December 3 presidential elections. (Note:
Venezuelan-based representatives of the OAS and Carter Center
report they have not yet been invited.) The Troika
representatives said Brussels would decide on the ad hoc
observation mission at the Latin America Committee meeting in
early September. Factors in the decision would include the
National Electoral Council's response to the EU observation
mission's recommendations from the 2005 elections, available
funding, and how much preparation time they would have for
the mission. Troika representatives also indicated that
various EU members and the Swiss would be providing financial
support of electoral observation NGO Ojo Electoral. Troika
representatives also discussed their continuing concern with
the draft anti-NGO law. Separately, the Ambassador and EU
representatives exchanged views on Venezuela's UNSC bid,
which all seemed to agree would have problems in Europe and
Asia/Oceania. The Ambassador also noted that BRV resistance
to U.S. efforts to reopen the Consulate in Maracaibo would
likely cause some additional bilateral friction in the coming
weeks. End Summary.

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CNE Invitation Arrives
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2. (C) During lunch at the Ambassador's residence for EU
Troika reps on July 26, Finnish Ambassador Mikko Pyhala told
Ambassador and PolCouns that the EU had just received a
formal invitation from the National Electoral Council (CNE)
to observe the December 3 presidential elections. The
invitation letter was dated June 7, but wasn't received from
the CNE until July 26. The Troika (which included EU
Ambassador Antonio Garcia Velasquez and German Charge Rolf
Herdon) speculated that Venezuelan MFA reluctance may have
caused the delay. When asked about the probable EU response,
they said the EU had not budgeted for a Venezuelan
observation mission this year. (Note: This is what they said
last year too.) Brussels would not decide on an ad hoc
mission until the early September Latin America Committee
meeting, they said. Separately, EU Second Secretary David
Bouanchaud told poloffs that if approved, a preliminary
mission could be sent as early as September and a final
decision could come as quickly as October. Bouanchaud
thought EU member states favored a mission, but said the EU
Commission might be more reluctant. The Troika implied that
there would be general reluctance to sending a mission.


3. (C) The Troika reps said the EU would need more
information before making a decision. Specifically:

-- CNE response to the EU mission recommendations from the
last elections. Pyhala said that, at present, the EU did not
believe they had been met, or seriously addressed.

-- Results of electoral registry (REP) audit. The current
audit is scheduled to end July 31 with results released in
mid-August. Since the audit is run by seven government

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entities, we doubt the results will indicate any serious
flaws in the REP. Opposition studies continue to raise
serious questions about the integrity of the voter rolls, but
the CNE will likely point to a recent informal study by three
autonomous universities that concluded the irregularities are
not substantial enough to skew election results. Troika
representatives noted they had had conversations with a
number of non-governmental experts and continued to have
doubts about the REP and other aspects of the CNE-managed
electoral process.

-- Clear understanding of how much time EU would have to
prepare an observation mission. Last year's experience
suggests this may be one of the last points known.
Ambassador noted the importance of coming early should a
decision to come be made.

-- Results of the opposition's August 13 primary. Polling
and lingering voter concerns suggest the primary will not
result in a decisive opposition mandate for the winner, most
likely at this point to be either Julio Borges or Manuel
Rosales. A poor showing would echo the EU's finding in its
last report that there was profound distrust of the electoral
process within the country.

-- Whether CNE and opposition had reached a formal agreement
on electoral procedures. This too, may be among the last
pieces of information, as decisions on key conditions are
still out-standing. Troika representatives noted that while
they understood the CNE would set conditions early, they
admitted that it might be quite late in the process before
final negotiations by the CNE, opposition and observation
missions on electoral conditions were concluded. The CNE is
currently debating regulations for the presidential campaign,
but seems unwilling to take EU recommendations to rein in
President Chavez' abuse of public funds, "Alo Presidente," or
his national broadcasts. The CNE has also delayed, yet
again, debate on the use of fingerprint machines in the
election, the elimination of which is a key opposition
demand.


4. (C) The Troika representatives noted the CNE said "other
institutions" were also to be invited to observe. Local OAS
representative in Caracas Carlos Carbacho and Carter Center
rep Hector Vanolli told PolCouns July 26 that their
organizations had not yet received invitations, but they
expected to. Both were non-committal on the prospects for a
favorable decision on an observation mission by their
headquarters.


5. (C) Pyhala said that several European Union members,
including the Finnish government, and the Swiss were in the
process of either providing or seriously considering giving
financial support to electoral observation NGO Ojo Electoral.
Troika representatives indicated their view, which Embassy
shares, that Ojo is a generally balanced operation, at least
in the Venezuelan context, and would conduct an effective
observation program. They admitted however, that they were
troubled that unlike previous elections, the CNE had not yet
certified Ojo as an official electoral observer.

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Anti-NGO Law
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6. (C) In response to questions on the issue, Pyhala said

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that he was still concerned with the draft International
Cooperation Law which could seriously hamper external,
including EU, support for civil society in Venezuela. He
noted that he was pleased with some of the changes the BRV
was now proposing to the law, but that it remained a concern.
He also noted that the EU was not going to engage in a
direct negotiation with the BRV over the specific language of
the text.

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UNSC Race
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7. (C) Pyhala asked the Ambassador's view of the UNSC
election. Ambassador gave his assessment that Venezuela
would win GRULAC by 10-12, with a near split in Africa and
Middle East. Venezuela would lose Europe by a wide margin
and Asia/Oceania by 10-20. Pyhala said the EU probably would
not take an EU position; governments would vote individually.
Ambassador said that was fine, but if we were misreading
their probable voting positions, they should tell us. Pyhala
said he pretty much agreed with us. The Europeans did not
want a UNSC that could not reach consensus on important
issues. Pyhala noted the Guatemalans could improve their
chances if they recognized Belize sovereignty right now. The
Ambassador replied that the situation took 200 years to come
about, and might require more than six weeks to resolve.
Pyhala then asked about the possibility of a GRULAC
compromise candidate emerging at the end. Ambassador said
that Chavez would not agree, and that it would depend on
Brazil - not us. Pyhala speculated that Brazil would
probably have to be the candidate as Chavez would never
accept anyone else.

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Maracaibo
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8. (C) Pyhala asked if there were any other developments on
the horizon that might be of interest. The Ambassador noted
that since more than three months have elapsed since the U.S.
submitted its formal request to the BRV to reopen the U.S.
Consulate in Maracaibo, it appeared that at least the
informal answer was "no". Given that the BRV has eight
consulates in the United States and that the U.S. government
was serious about reopening Maracaibo and being treated in a
proper reciprocal manner, this issue would likely cause some
friction with the BRV in the coming weeks. Pyhala said he
understood the U.S. position.

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Comment
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9. (C) It is not clear whether the European Union will agree
to send an electoral observation mission for the December 3
Presidential elections. While the Ambassador was carefully
neutral on whether or not such a mission should be sent, the
Troika representatives understood the point that to be
effective a decision needed to be made early and if positive
the mission should get on the ground months, rather than days
before an election. The Troika also noted the serious
problems with the electoral system and the lack of CNE or BRV
responsiveness to their (in our view) fairly mild
recommendations. They seemed to, at least at the moment, not
have a clear idea of what might be accomplished by sending a

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team in the current electoral environment. This was a
sentiment echoed by the representative of the Carter Center.
Pyhala's comment on the UNSC race, that the EU would likely
not have a common position, but the great majority of members
would not favor a Bolivarian presence on the UNSC, seems to
echo what Embassy has heard elsewhere.

BROWNFIELD