KEVIN RUDD IS NEW OPPOSITION LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001933

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL AS
SUBJECT: KEVIN RUDD IS NEW OPPOSITION LEADER

REF: A) CANBERRA 1925 B) CANBERRA 1393

Classified By: DCM Michael P. Owens for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Kevin Rudd won the vote in the Labor Party
(ALP) caucus on December 4, beating Kim Beazley 49-39 to
become the new leader of the Opposition. The press is
reporting that the uncommitted caucus members swung to Mr.
Rudd over the weekend. Voting for the shadow cabinet and
other leadership positions has been postponed until Thursday.
As ALP MP Bob McMullen (protect) pointed out to us Friday,
Rudd is a strong supporter of the U.S. alliance. At his
press conference today, Rudd reiterated that his support for
the alliance was rock solid. However, he also backs the
current ALP policy calling for a withdrawal of Australian
troops from Iraq. Rudd will be the fifth ALP leader since

1996. END SUMMARY.

ALP ELECTS NEW LEADERSHIP


2. (SBU) Shadow Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd became the new
Opposition Leader December 4 after winning a caucus vote over
Kim Beazley 49-39. Current Shadow Health Minister Julia
Gillard became Deputy Leader. The ALP caucus will meet
Thursday to elect a new front bench. This will give Rudd and
Gillard time to pick a new team that will not face
parliamentary question time until next year. Kim Beazley's
position had become increasingly difficult the past two weeks
(see ref A),and Rudd and Gillard seized their opportunity.
What had appeared on Friday as still a tight contest broke
for Rudd over the weekend. In two polls released Monday, the
public preferred Rudd-Gillard to Beazley-Macklin by 21
percent. The press was also reporting that Rudd supporters
were leaking internal ALP polling over the weekend that
mirrored the public polls.

NEW ALP LEADER'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS U.S. ALLIANCE

3.(C/NF) MP McMullen pointed out to poloffs Friday that Rudd
and Beazley were both strong supporters of the alliance with
the U.S. Rudd had noted to the Ambassador in September (ref
B) that while the ALP had specific policy differences on
issues like Iraq, it was committed to maintaining a strong
alliance relationship. When asked about the U.S.
relationship at his press conference today Rudd said his
commitment to the alliance was "rock solid."

GENERATIONAL CHANGE


4. (C) In the end, the Rudd-Beazley contest did not appear to
be bitter. The long-standing ALP factions did not vote as
blocks in the caucus, and this may reflect the weakening of
the factions within the Labor Party as a whole. In press
conferences after the voting, both sides praised the other,
with Beazley -- whose brother unexpectedly died today --
giving a warm, heartfelt farewell speech showing more passion
than he had in months. The 57 year-old Beazley noted that
this caucus election may reflect a generational change, with
Rudd and Gillard both in their 40s.


5. (C/NF) COMMENT: Beazley was not connecting with the
public. With the polls showing the ALP within striking
distance of the Coalition, a switch to Rudd and Gillard made
sense to most caucus members. As senior ALP politician
Robert Ray (protect) told us last week, the key question in
any poll is satisfaction rating, and those polls were showing
that Beazley was unelectable despite a range of issues
(interest rates, global warming, Iraq) that presumably should
have made him competitive with Prime Minister Howard.


6. (C/NF) The ALP caucus also switched leaders several months
before the last federal election, bringing in the initially
popular but ultimately unstable Mark Latham to replace Simon
Creen. Hardworking, smart, and serious, Rudd is no Mark
Latham. However, the Mandarin-speaking intellectual Rudd is
not an affable politician in the mold of Bob Hawke. His
ability to connect with average Australians will be a big
question in the lead-up to the 2007 elections.

MCCALLUM