ASSAM STARTS STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONEERING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000071

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER SOCI BG IN
SUBJECT: ASSAM STARTS STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONEERING

REF: CALCUTTA 00063


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On February 11 Congress Party Chairwoman
Sonia Gandhi traveled to the Northeast Indian state of Assam to
inaugurate her party's campaign for the May 2006 state assembly
elections. Her presence reflected Congress' concern about
retaining its hold on Assam, following recent setbacks in Bihar
and Karnataka and the prospect of seat-losses in the West Bengal
and Kerala May assembly elections. In Assam the main opposition
parties, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP),are weak and fragmented, but Congress has also lost
support from the critical Muslim community. In a brazen appeal
to the Muslims, Gandhi offered to amend the Foreigners Act to
prevent deportation of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. Her
visit was marred by violence in the wake of the death of a
suspected United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) member in
Indian Army custody (REFTEL). However, Gandhi quickly condemned
the death, forcing the Army to apologize. The Congress
government in Assam has been pushing the military to institute a
ceasefire in its operations against ULFA. While the political
situation is still very fluid two months prior to the election,
it appears that Congress will lose its current outright
majority, but will likely cobble together a coalition government
in Assam. End Summary.


2. (U) Elections for the 126-member Assam legislative assembly
are scheduled in May. Assam, with a population of 26 million,
borders Bangladesh and Bhutan. Its highly diverse population
suffers several ethnic insurgencies and persistent violence.
The largest ethnic insurgent group, ULFA, demands a separate
homeland for the Assamese and is listed on the USG's Other
Selected Terrorist Organization (OSTO) list. In addition, a
continuous influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants has swelled
the Muslim community to 28 per cent of the population.


3. (U) Congress dominates the present Assembly with 71 seats,
while opposition parties the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has 20,
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 8, the Nationalist Congress
Party (NCP) 3, the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) 2,
the All India Trinamul Congress (AITC) 1, the Samata Party 1,
the Samajwadi Party 1 and Independents 19. Congress has
remained relatively united. The main regional party, the AGP,
on the other hand, is sharply divided. Brindabon Goswami leads
the original party, while former Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta
leads a breakaway AGP (Progressive) faction. The BJP is
attempting to persuade the AGP to form an alliance, but so far
has not been successful. Meanwhile Mahanta, despite some degree
of popularity, is unable to build an effective organization with
his (Progressive) party.


4. (SBU) The Muslim vote is likely to determine whether
Congress can retain its majority. The Muslim community's
importance has been magnified by a steady influx of Bangladeshi
immigrants and Muslims presently hold 13 Congress seats in the
assembly. Traditionally, Congress had been the party of choice
for the Muslims as it protected illegal Bangladeshi migrants
from deportation. Congress also supported the Illegal Migrants
Determination by Tribunals Act (IMDT) of 1983, applicable only
in Assam, which made identification, detection and deportation
of foreigners in Assam incredibly complex and protected
post-1971 illegal Bangladeshi migrants.


5. (SBU) Congress' relations with the Muslims suffered a
setback in July 2005, when the Supreme Court ruled the IMDT
unconstitutional. Assam, like the rest of India, is now subject
to the Foreigners' Act of 1946, which requires the police to
deport illegal residents. Muslims in Assam criticized the
Congress for failing to support the IMDT in court and in
November 2005, formed a Muslim political group the United
Democratic Front (UDF). UDF Leader Hafiz Rashid Chowdhury
(protect) said that the UDF is running on the slogan of
"Anti-Congress, Anti-BJP."


6. (SBU) The Congress has tried to appease the Muslims by not
enforcing the Foreigners Act and in her recent visit, Gandhi
offered to amend the Act. According to Assam Congress Spokesman
Abdul Khaleque (protect),the amendment would effectively bring
the IMDT provisions under the Foreigners Act and again create
special exceptions and a tribunal for Assam. Also on February
11, Gandhi visited Barpeta, which has a large concentration of

CALCUTTA 00000071 002 OF 002


Bangladeshi Muslims, and laid the foundation stone for a new
medical college.


7. (SBU) Khaleque indicated that Congress' efforts have not
been successful, as the UDF has established an alliance with the
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP),may soon conclude similar
agreements with CPM and CPI, and is also in discussions with the
AGP. Khaleque conceded that Congress would not hold on to its
current 71 seats this election but claimed it would not slip
below 60. Other contacts believe that Congress could drop to as
low as 40 to 50 seats.


8. (SBU) The other complicating factor in the electoral politics
is ULFA's continuing insurgency. According to post contacts,
the state Congress' goal is to persuade New Delhi to stop army
operations against ULFA because no party can win elections
without ULFA's tacit approval. (Former CM Mahanta lost power in
2001 when ULFA turned from friend to foe, after he failed to
prevent army operations against the group.) On February 5, the
Indian Army detained suspected ULFA supporter Ajit Mahanta, who
subsequently died in custody. That in turn resulted in the
February 10 police shooting of 8 persons protesting Mahanta's
death. Gandhi was quick to condemn the violence and compelled
the Army to apologize. Analysts feel that the state Congress
and ULFA are probably negotiating an understanding. ULFA would
not want a BJP-led government in Assam, since the BJP-led GOI
supported attacks on ULFA camps in Bhutan in 2003.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Facing mutinous Muslims and persistent
insurgency, the Congress party is struggling to maintain its
government in Assam. While Assam is not a major state in the
normal calculus of Indian politics, its loss to Congress would
be embarrassing following the recent failures in Bihar,
Karnataka and anticipated seat losses in West Bengal and Kerala.
However, Congress' opposition seems very fragmented, which
gives the Party hope. Although too early to predict the
results, the consensus appears to be that Congress will retain
power in Assam but with a reduced majority that will force it to
go to other parties to form a coalition government.
JARDINE