GOVERNANCE, DEVELOPMENT, AND NAXALISM IN BIHAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000556

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER ECON PREL SOCI IN
SUBJECT: GOVERNANCE, DEVELOPMENT, AND NAXALISM IN BIHAR

REF: CALCUTTA 00442


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After one year in office, expectations remain
high for Bihar's Janata Dal United (JDU)-led government. During
a December 4-6 visit to Bihar, state officials, journalists, and
NGOs told Poloff, however, that the new state government has to
start from scratch after fifteen years of misrule by the
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) party, and it would take several more
years for Bihar to realize tangible results. The new government
has improved basic law and order in Patna and made some progress
on targeted areas of economic development and public health.
Maoists (Naxalites) continue to affect several districts,
although the tempo and brutality of their operations have
decreased. The convergence of the downward trend in Naxalite
violence and the upward trend in governance is encouraging, and
the challenge for the new government is whether it can produce
results fast enough. Biharis expect Chief Minister Nitish Kumar
to deliver major improvements in his first term, but he needs to
establish basic government before he can make progress on
development. END SUMMARY.

HIGH EXPECTATIONS, LIMITED RESULTS
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2. (U) Bihar, notorious for its endemic corruption and
lawlessness, has experienced a slight improvement in law and
order. Petty crime and kidnappings, previously widespread, have
decreased. The government's police officer rotation program has
produced positive results, as good officers have been assigned
to more problematic districts. The "fear psychosis" in the
capital, Patna, has eroded, although the degree to which this is
the case outside the city, where the government has less
control, is unclear.


3. (SBU) The government is focusing its economic development
efforts on the sugar and maize industries and land reform, but
it has made little progress on roads, power, and other
infrastructure. Bihar is one of India's largest sugarcane
producers, and the government wants to improve the state's sugar
processing capacity as most of the raw sugar presently is sent
to neighboring states for value-added processing and packaging.
The government is pursuing greater domestic investment, and the
value of investment proposals has increased significantly since
the new government assumed power. A senior state official said
that Bihar has approved 60 domestic investment proposals,
primarily in sugar, valued at 250 million rupees, and it is
hosting an investment conclave in January 2007. (Note: 1 dollar
is approximately 45 rupees. End note.) However, the basic
infrastructure to support such investments is still lacking.
For example, road construction is progressing slowly, and the
state still buys most of its power from the central government.
One journalist, summarizing the economic situation, said, "We
are still struggling with society, and you need society before
economics." He explained that the Chief Minister himself had
said it would take three years before any real improvement was
visible.


4. (U) A major driver of Bihar's economic condition is the
dependency on land. The quantity of land is insufficient to
support the state's large population of 81 million, even if the
government could pass land reforms. Accordingly, seasonal labor
migration to other states is very high. Migrant laborers bring
some income and skills back to the state; the main problem is
the exodus of Bihari students to other parts of India for higher
education and employment. There are few job opportunities for
these graduates, and most do not return to Bihar or send
remittances.


5. (SBU) Opposition RJD State President AB Siddiqui told Poloff
that the JDU-led government supports development for the
wealthiest 10 percent in Bihar, while RJD believes in
development for the other 90 percent. He explained that the
RJD, during its 15-year rule, had to focus on providing the most
basic services to the rural poor rather than attracting
investment that would benefit only a small segment of the
population. Siddiqui said that his party would be a responsible
opposition party but would highlight the government's failure to
implement the sizeable chunk of development funding that the
state receives from the central government. He opined that the
new government should have called an all-party meeting to form a
consensus on development, but the Chief Minister wants

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"development all for himself."


6. (U) The government has made public health a priority.
According to UNICEF State Representative Dr. Bijaya Rajbhandari,
the government has actively supported programs to reduce and
eradicate polio, child malnutrition, and HIV/AIDS. The risk of
HIV/AIDS in Bihar is very high because of the large migrant
labor population, low literacy rate, and limited virus detection
capability. According to data from the Bihar State Aids Control
Society (BSACS),there are 10,000 HIV/AIDS cases in the state,
with 3,500 new cases in the past two years. On average,
approximately 2,000 new cases are identified each year, although
detection programs are limited and the actual figure probably is
much higher. Sentinel programs are present in natal care
facilities, but only 14 to 17 percent of births occur in these
facilities. The HIV/AIDS growth rate is most alarming in North
Bihar due to its large population of migrant laborers.

JOURNALISTS PROVIDE UNIQUE WINDOW INTO THE NAXALITES
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7. (SBU) Journalists and academics, among the few people that
have direct access to Naxalite camps and cadre, report that
there are 4,000 to 5,000 "hardcore fighters" spread across Bihar
and Jharkhand, but the tempo and brutality of Naxalite
operations in Bihar has decreased in recent years. Offensive
operations have moved south to Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh
because the hilly terrain there is more favorable for insurgent
activity. 14 of Bihar's 38 districts are affected by Naxalites,
and Naxalites continue to raise money and periodically attack
government symbols such as railroad tracks and police stations
to remind people of their presence. However, they have stopped
targeting civilians, and consequently the number of massacres
has decreased. The Naxalites typically obtain their arms
through raids on police armories and from Naxalites in other
states, but they encourage the use of rudimentary weapons, such
as sticks, because it demonstrates that even the "common man" is
capable of resisting. While our contacts claimed that the
Naxalites are receiving some sanctuary and arms from the
Nepalese Maoists, they explained that the Naxalites do not
support the Nepalese Maoists' decision to enter the government,
and the Naxalites in Bihar issued a statement saying that the
Nepalese Maoists had made a mistake.


8. (SBU) Although they are not formal participants in the
political process, the Naxalites wield some influence in state
politics because they control the votes of villagers in their
areas of control. As such, the state government has
traditionally avoided antagonizing the Naxalites, a policy that
has been continued by the JDU-led government. We received mixed
responses about whether the state or central government could
resolve the situation militarily if it had the political will.
Some believed that a military presence alone has an impact, but
most said a military approach has not and will not work as the
root of the problem is economic.


9. (SBU) Providing a more general overview of Naxalite ideology
and organization, our contacts explained that the Naxalites in
Bihar do not seek to join the government but rather thrive in
the government's absence. "Their objectives are vague and the
achievement of their objectives is even vaguer. The situation
on the ground is simply conducive to their growth." Ideological
indoctrination is minimal, and most armed cadre join because of
personal grievances. These recruits typically have been
oppressed, raped, or humiliated by the moneyed or landed
classes, and the Naxalites provide them with a means of
retribution in the form of a weapon, uniform, and monthly salary
of 1,500 rupees. The non-armed cadre tend to join for more
ideological reasons and count among them many well-educated and
mainstream citizens.


10. (SBU) Naxalites are caste-specific and area-specific so the
movement varies from state to state. The Naxalites are not
tightly unified across India, although there is a central
command and loose organizational structure. The central
committee is composed of 45 members from different regions, and
authority passes from this committee to zonal commanders, area
commanders, and village commanders. Bihar, for example, has

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three zonal commanders. Most central committee orders are
ideological, while operational decisions are taken locally. The
movement's leaders tend to come from the more mainstream,
ideology-driven cadre.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: The Chief Minister's desire to improve
governance and pursue development is a positive change, and
coupled with a downward trend in Naxalite violence, the
situation is encouraging. The challenge will be whether the
government can deliver results quickly to meet voters'
expectations and retain support. The government is doing some
of the right things, but the process of correcting Bihar's
course will take time. In the meantime, the state will continue
to lag behind the rest of the country on most indicators. While
the decrease in Naxalite attacks bodes well for law and order
and development, the movement continues to build support in
rural areas, and the state government's strategy of avoidance
may backfire if and when the Naxalites choose to become more
violent.
JARDINE