DEADLY BOMB ATTACKS IN ASSAM KILL 12 PEOPLE AND INJURE 50

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000509

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PACOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC MARR PTER PHUM IN
SUBJECT: DEADLY BOMB ATTACKS IN ASSAM KILL 12 PEOPLE AND INJURE 50

REF: CALCUTTA 0481


1. (SBU) Summary: Following Assam's bloodiest month of
insurgent violence this year, November began with one of Assam's
deadliest bombings in recent years. On November 5, two bomb
explosions in Assam's capital Guwahati killed 12 people and
injured at least 50 others. GOI and state law enforcement
officials blamed the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) for
the attacks and have met to discuss the deteriorating security
situation in the Northeast. Security officials are increasingly
concerned that they are unable to contain the violence and blame
political interference for restraining anti-insurgency activity.
The increasing frequency of ULFA's attacks, the deadliness of
the latest explosions and the targeting of Assam's capital are
all strong indications that ULFA is escalating its activities
and shifting its focus from targets in more remote areas to key
urban centers to demonstrate its strength. End Summary.




2. (SBU) On November 5, two bomb explosions in Assam's state
capital, Guwahati, killed 12 people. One bomb detonated in the
crowded Fancy Bazaar market and the other at Noonmatai, near an
oil refinery. More than 50 people were injured by the
explosions. Assam Police Intelligence Chief Kagan Sharma told
post that there was no doubt that the United Liberation Front of
Asom (ULFA) committed the attacks. Sharma observed that ULFA
has been gradually intensifying its operations over the past two
weeks and he believed that the initial overtures for talks
earlier this year were just a ploy to enable the outfit to
reorganize and rearm. The district deputy commissioner in
Guwahati said that the blast at Fancy Bazaar may have targeted
the Hindi-speaking community, which dominates that area, a
community perceived as outsiders by the ethnic Assamese ULFA.




3. (U) October was the bloodiest month in Assam so far this
year, with 31 civilian deaths due to insurgent violence. Other
peak months were: February (12),June (24),July (10),August
(20); with only single-digit casualties in January (8),March
(3),April (7),May (2) and September (7).




4. (SBU) While Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi told the press
that initial reports suggested that the blast was the handiwork
of ULFA, Assam Chief Secretary S. Kabilan said the blasts could
be by ULFA or possibly some Muslim Jihadi groups. Most
observers do not share Kabilan's view of possible Jihadi
involvement. Assam's Unified Command, which includes all of the
state law enforcement and military forces present in the state,
met on November 6 to coordinate an action plan to respond to the
escalating violence in Assam.




5. (U) The peace initiative that began in September 2005
between ULFA's representative People's Consultative Group (PCG)
and the GOI derailed in late September 2006 for several reasons:
ULFA refused to name its team of negotiators and stuck to its
demand for release of five of its detained leaders, while the
GOI insisted on written assurance from ULFA that it would commit
to peace talks. After three rounds of GOI-PCG talks, Delhi
announced a unilateral ceasefire on August 13, but the
suspension of security operations was revoked September 24,
following reports of ULFA's intensified extortion, attacks on
police patrols and the killing of a tea planter.



6. (SBU) The almost equal number of militant and the security
casualties this year have forced GOI officials to assess whether
the militants are possibly gaining an upper hand. For the last
decade the security forces have always suffered significantly
fewer fatalities than ULFA. Security sources in Assam cite the
reduction of operations against ULFA as the reason for ULFA's
return to violence, saying, "It is the restraint forced on the
security forces by the political establishment that is behind

CALCUTTA 00000509 002 OF 002


the trend." State Congress Party officials had asked the
central government to limit anti-insurgency activity in the
run-up to state assembly elections in May this year, in an
effort to garner votes from Assamese sympathetic to ULFA.




7. (SBU) The escalating violence is exacerbating existing
divisions between GOI military leadership and politicians on the
best approach to dealing with ULFA. The Army was opposed to
peace talks, convinced that ULFA was just using the lull in
fighting to reorganize. Many law enforcement officials are also
unhappy about the perceived failure of the "political" solution.
An Inspector General of Assam Police told post that the
situation is very grim and that the government's "soft approach"
has contributed to the rise in violence.




8. (SBU) Comment: ULFA is increasing its insurgent activities
in the Northeast and security forces seem unable to stem the
violence. The large number of casualties from the latest bomb
attacks and the fact that the attacks occured in the state
capital are strong signs that ULFA is stronger and more
emboldened after the recent ceasefire. Growing press coverage
of attacks in Assam and the Northeast is forcing the GOI to take
a closer look at the security situation in a region often
wracked by violence but out of the general public eye. However,
pressure on the security forces to clamp down on ULFA may result
in an indiscriminate response and human rights violations.
Indian paramilitary forces, like the Assam Rifles, are notorious
for their heavy handed approach to insurgents, which has
contributed to a cycle of greater violence.
JARDINE