LACK OF TRUST CONTINUES TO STIFLE PEACE TALKS IN ASSAM

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000362

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PTER PINR IN XD NCTC
SUBJECT: LACK OF TRUST CONTINUES TO STIFLE PEACE TALKS IN ASSAM


1. (U) SUMMARY: Local media reports that hurdles for direct
talks between Government of India (GOI) and United Liberation
Front of Assam (ULFA) have been reduced, with New Delhi agreeing
to release five militant leaders and ULFA announcing a
"cessation of hostilities" against the Indian Army. ConGen's
contacts with security officials and political observers in
Assam, however, indicate that while some progress has been
achieved, ULFA is yet to abjure violence completely and a lack
of trust between the state apparatus, ULFA and other tribal
militant groups still plagues the future of the talks and the
end of hostilities in the state. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On August 19, 2006 press reports stated that ULFA had
announced a unilateral ceasefire in recognition of the GOI
initiative to call off army operations for ten days prior to
India's independence celebrations on August 15, 2006. The
reports also indicated that National Security Adviser, M.K.
Narayanan had assured the Peoples' Consultative Group (PCG)
representatives on the release of five top ULFA prisoners.
(Note: On September 8, 2005, ULFA had announced a nine-member
"Peoples' Consultative Group" to work out the modalities for
their formal peace talks with GOI. The PCG included, among
others, noted Assamese litterateur, Indira Goswami, former
footballer Rebati Phukan, and journalists Ajit Bhuyan and Hyder
Hussain. Goswami and Phukan were tasked to be the principal
facilitators for the talks with the GOI. End Note.). The media
inferred that the thaw between the two sides was brightening the
prospects of durable peace.


3. (U) Inspector General of Police, Special Branch (IGP-SP),
Khagen Sarma informed ConGen that ULFA has so far only "agreed
to respect" the GOI initiative to stop army operations for the
ten day period. While Sarma felt that this is a positive step,
he noted that ULFA did not intimate anything directly to either
the Central or State government but informed the PCG, who in
turn issued a press release to the media. Sarma observed that
on August 21, ULFA Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa denied that ULFA
has made any commitment of a "unilateral ceasefire" or an end to
violence. On August 20, Chief Secretary of Assam, S. Kabilan
stated that "the temporary truce is in the newspapers, but we
are yet to get any communication from the Center. Probably it
is not final."


4. (U) IGP-SP Sarma informed ConGen that the no decision has
yet been taken by the GOI on the release of the five ULFA
prisoners. Sarma noted that processing has begun, but there is
some way to go before the prisoners are released. The GOI is
seeking personal guarantees of a commitment to peace talks and
forsaking of violence from PCG representatives prior to
releasing the prisoners. The GOI is wary of its 1991
experience, when it had released some senior ULFA leaders to
pave the way for peace talks, only to see the prisoners vanish
and the talks break down. The trust between the government,
both at the center and state, and the ULFA is yet to be built,
say ConGen contacts.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The halting of army operations for a ten day
period appears to have been the GOI's strategy to ensure
peaceful Independence Day celebrations in the Northeast. While
the PCG may be keen to ensure that this truce can be made more
durable, so far state officials are closely watching the
parleys between GOI and the ULFA leadership as the PCG attempts
to work out a deal. Complicating the task is management of the
various tribal militant groups in the area, many of whom do not
entirely trust ULFA to represent their views. Even an agreement
on a cease-fire will likely not be unanimously adhered to by the
more hard-line tribal militants. END COMMENT.
JARDINE