CONGRESS LOSES ITS MAJORITY IN ASSAM STATE ASSEMBLY AND THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000221

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PHUM PTER IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS LOSES ITS MAJORITY IN ASSAM STATE ASSEMBLY AND THE
MUSLIM VOTE

REF: A) CALCUTTA 0195 B) CALCUTTA 0145 C) CALCUTTA 0134 D) CALCUTTA 0071


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The May 11 state assembly election results
returned a diminished Congress Party to power in Assam that must
now rule in a coalition with the tribal Bodo People's
Progressive Front - Hagrama (BPPF-H). The recently established
Muslim party Asom United Democratic Front (AUDF) split the
formerly solid Congress Muslim vote and undermined the party's
hold in 20 Muslim-dominated constituencies, causing Congress to
loose its outright majority. The AUDF had hoped to act as the
"kingmaker," but Congress combined its 53 seats with those of
the BPPF-H and Independents to form a government. Chief
Minister Tarun Gogoi appeared anxious to tie-up with the BPPF-H,
as it was willing to let him retain his position in the new
government. Gogoi spurned the AUDF as its leaders had publicly
opposed his remaining as CM. Gogoi's willingness to rely on a
party of former ethnic Bodo militants to retain his position
could seriously damage the Congress' long-term prospects in
Assam by alienating the Muslim vote and opening the door to
greater ethnic violence and corruption. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Assam's May 11 assembly election results left Congress
without a clear majority, although it remained the state's
largest party with 53 seats in the 126-seat assembly and easily
beat its principal rival, the regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP),
which won just 24 seats. Congress' weak showing was attributed
to its losing control of the key Muslim vote in 20
Muslim-majority assembly constituencies. Businessman Badruddin
Ajmal and other Muslim leaders formed the AUDF in late 2005 to
tap into Muslim sentiment that Congress was not responsive to
the community. Congress, needing the "magic number" 64 to
retain power, turned to the BPBF (H) with its 12 seats and to
seven independents to form a coalition government. Prior to the
elections Congress, anticipating its loss of Muslim votes, made
an unofficial arrangement with the tribal BPPF (H),and did not
field candidates against it in Bodo-dominated areas.


3. (U) May 11 election results were:
Congress: 53 (71 in 2001)
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP): 24 (20 in 2001)
Asom Gana Parishad - Progressive (AGP-P): 1
Asom United Democratic Front (AUDF): 10
Bodoland People's Progressive Front - H (BPPF-H): 12
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 10 (8 in 2001)
Communist Party of India (CPI): 1
Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM): 2
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP): 1
Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC): 1
Others: 11


4. (U) Congress' difficulties with Muslim voters came to the
fore in mid-2005, when the Supreme Court ruled that the Illegal
Migrants Determination by Tribunal Act (IMDT) was
unconstitutional. The IMDT protected illegal Bangladeshi
migrants from deportation and Congress' failure to appeal the
ruling or to immediately offer alternative legislation was
perceived by many in the Muslim community as a failure to
protect its interests. Congress finally responded in April 2006
by amending the Foreigners Act of 1946 with the Foreigners
Tribunals for Assam Order, effectively replicating the IMDT.
However in late 2005, Muslim leaders, who traditionally
supported Congress, had already formed the AUDF. Given Assam's
Muslim population of 28 percent, the AUDF hoped to do well in
the election and play a key role in forming a new government.


5. (SBU) Congress spokesperson B. Sharma (protect) told post
that the party would have certainly won an absolute majority had
it not been for the AUDF. She maintained that indigenous
Muslims voted for Congress, while "Bengali speaking" Muslims
most affected by the IMDT repeal voted for the AUDF. Press
contacts added that in lower Assam and the Barak Valley areas,
where the Bangladeshi presence is higher, most voters preferred
the AUDF. However in upper Assam, indigenous Muslims voted
mostly for Congress or even the AGP. In as many as 20
constituencies, the division of Muslim votes between Congress
and the AUDF resulted in a Congress defeat. The AUDF's 10 seats
were clearly won at Congress' expense and the AUDF also came
second in at least 12 other districts. (Note: At least 39 of
Assam's 126 assembly segments have more than 40 per cent Muslim
voters, while in 12 Muslim voters are between 30 and 40 per

CALCUTTA 00000221 002 OF 002


cent.) According to Election Commission figures, Congress won
only 28.33 per cent of the total votes and the BJP 10.88
percent. In effect, 60 per cent of votes cast were against
national parties Congress and the BJP.


6. (SBU) Even though the AUDF now represents the largest bloc
of Muslim votes and many of its leaders and members were former
Congress Party members, Gogoi refused to pursue an alliance.
Gogoi was clearly motivated by self interest, as AUDF Leader
Ajmal had said that he might support the Congress to form a
government, but not with Gogoi as Chief Minister. While Gogoi
did not want a coalition with the AUDF, the Congress national
leadership was reportedly interested in bringing the AUDF back
into the fold. An Assam Congress member noted to ConGen that
the Congress national leadership had pressured Gogoi to work
with the AUDF. Congress leaders are apparently worried that the
formation of the AUDF might encouraged Muslims in Uttar Pradesh
to launch a similar party, and that Gogoi's rejection of the
AUDF would send a negative signal to Muslims in other states.


7. (SBU) However, Gogoi apparently ignored pressure to work
with the AUDF and instead put his fate and that of the Congress
in the hands of Hagrama Mohilary and his Bodo faction, the
Bodoland People's Progressive Front (BPPF-H) because the Bodos
were willing let Gogoi remain as CM. Mohilary was leader of the
militant Bodo Liberation Tigers that disbanded in 2003 with the
signing of a peace accord with the GOI. Mohilary emerged as a
key Bodo leader in the 2005 local Bodoland Territorial
Autonomous Council elections. During those elections, Mohilary
received Congress support and fielded former BLT militants to
contest against official BPPF candidates nominated by his rival
faction leader Rabiran Nazary. In the assembly elections, the
Congress asked its supporters to vote for the BPPF (H) in Bodo
dominated districts. The BPPF(H) has proclaimed that solving
the problem of illegal migration into Assam will be a priority
for the party because it concerns "all the indigenous people of
the state." The BPPF (H) now seeks to portray itself as the
champion of Assamese interests in partnership with the Congress,
usurping the opposition AGP's role as protector of the Assamese
against foreign (Bangladeshi) influence.


8. (SBU) Gogoi's short-term calculus for personal gain in
aligning with the BPPF-H could have serious negative long-term
repercussions. The BPPF-H has already been accused of
corruption in its governance of the Bodoland Council and
Congress' support of the BPPF-H against the BPPF-R, in a classic
tactic of divide and rule, has exacerbated factional tensions
and has led to violence. In a series of incidents involving the
two Bodo factions this April, a youth was lynched, a teacher
hacked to death, several homes set on fire, and faction members
shot.


8. (SBU) Comment: Congress loss of its majority in the Assam
state assembly was a setback. Through judicious negotiation
with the AUDF, the Party could have minimized its losses and
potentially won back the Muslim vote. Instead, CM Gogoi's chose
to save his own political skin at the expense of the Congress
Party. Gogoi's alignment with the BPPF reinforced the break
with the AUDF and its former Congress members, making any
reconciliation with errant Muslims less likely. This has ruined
Congress' prospects of uniting the Muslim community behind it.
In addition, Gogoi's actions sends a negative signal to other
Muslim communities in states like UP that Congress leaders will
sacrifice the Muslim vote when politically expedient. Gogoi's
favoring of the BPPF-H against the BPPF-R is also fueling
factional violence within the Bodo community and further
inflaming Assam's simmering ethnic tensions. In saving himself,
Gogoi appears to have damned his party.
JARDINE