COMMUNISTS SWEEP WEST BENGAL STATE ELECTIONS AND CONGRESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000195

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI IN
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS SWEEP WEST BENGAL STATE ELECTIONS AND CONGRESS
WEAKENS IN ASSAM

REF: A) CALCUTTA 0071 B) CALCUTTA 0105 C) CALCUTTA 0134 D) CALCUTT 0148


1. (SBU) Summary: Initial May 11 state election results
indicate that the Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPM) and
its Left allies increased their seats in West Bengal's 294-seat
state assembly from 199 to 235. The CPM's victory is seen as a
strong endorsement of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya's
more liberal economic policies. The CPM expanded its
representation, gaining an outright majority, while its Left
Front coalition partners saw a marginal increase in their
numbers. In Assam, the Congress party lost its majority but
still retains a significant lead over the regional opposition
party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Muslim party the Assam United
Democratic Front (AUDF) split from the Congress Party at the end
of 2005, drawing away critical Muslim votes and weakening
Congress. Despite this, Congress should be able to form an
Assam government by creating a coalition with smaller,
independent parties. The CPM's strong victory in West Bengal
will give CM Bhattacharya sufficient political cover to initiate
additional economic reforms in the state. However at the
national level, the CPM leadership in New Delhi views the
electoral victory in West Bengal as a mandate to confront more
boldly the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) on
economic liberalization and it pro-US foreign policy. Congress'
weakening in Assam, one of the few states in East India where it
has a presence, reflects its continuing difficulty in managing
the complex regional and coalition politics of this area. End
Summary.

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Buddha Achieves Electoral Nirvana
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2. (SBU) CPM and Left Front allies under the leadership of CM
Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will form the WB government for the
seventh consecutive time. This victory saw a large increase in
the Left's seats in the State Assembly, from 199 in the 2001
election, to 235 seats in 2006. The party tallies with most of
the votes counted by 6:00 PM are:

CPM and partners: 235 (CPM 176)
Trinamul and BJP: 29
Congress: 20
Others: 7
(Elections for one seat have not been held due to the death of a
candidate.)


Opposition party seats dropped from 2001 levels: Trinamul 60,
Congress 26 and Others 9. Further consolidating its position,
the CPM went from 143 to 176 seats, while its Left allies like
the CPI, Forward Bloc, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and
others increased only by 3 seats. This puts the CPM over the
threshold of 148 required for an outright majority and reduces
its reliance on its more leftist and ideological allies.


3. (U) The Election Commission's close monitoring of the WB
polls, including extensive use of paramilitary forces and
holding the election in five phases, appears to have encouraged
greater voter turnout. Participation was up by eight percent
from the previous 2001 elections, with 83 percent of eligible
voters exercising their franchise. This year's election also
saw little of the intimidation and violence by party workers
that has marred past elections.


4. (U) We attribute the strong CPM showing to voter support of
the economic reforms implemented by the WB government. The
reforms have stimulated economic growth to over seven percent in
the last five years. The voters also rejected the erratic
Trinamul leader Mamata Banerjee. Her campaign was weak and she
purposely avoided creating a strong grassroots organization out
of fear of potential party rivals. In addition, her ineffectual
protests in 2005 against investments in the State by the
Indonesian Salim Group portrayed her as anti-development.
Congress, a marginal player in this election and struggling with
party infighting, managed to hold its own and not suffer

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significant losses.

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Congress Feels Pain in Assam
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5. (SBU) The results in Assam were less clear-cut. Although
they show Congress leading with 51 seats, it will not win an
absolute majority of over 64 seats in the 126-seat assembly and
must gain support from small, independent parties to form a
coalition government. Because of Congress' weak performance,
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi could lose his position. Although
his major Congress rivals, Bhubaneswar Kalita and Anjan Datta,
lost in their districts. The formation of the new Muslim AUDF
party in late 2005 appears to have hurt the Congress party by
drawing away its once reliable Muslim 'vote bank.' Muslims
influence the electoral outcome in at least 20 assembly
constituencies. The formation of the AUDF reflected a
perception among the Muslim community that Congress was taking
its vote for granted. The AUDF leadership accused Congress of
failing to respond effectively, when the Indian Supreme Court
declared the Immigrant Migrants Determination Tribunal (IMDT)
act unconstitutional in 2005. The IMDT protected illegal
Bangladeshi migrants from being deported. Congress' effort in
April to amend the Foreigners Act with protections similar to
the IMDT was seen as by the Muslim community as 'too little too
late.' A Congress contact said that the party would first try
to form the government with the support of the tribal Bodo
People's Progressive Front- Hagrama (BPPF-H),Independents and
other parties, and would approach the AUDF as a last result.
Congress/AUDF relations became strained after the party declared
that it did not want Gogoi to remain as CM.

The latest results for the major parties are:

Congress: 51
Asom Gana Parishad: 25
Assam United Democratic Front: 8

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) CPM's strong gain in WB is seen as a mandate by many
observers here for CM Bhattacharya and his economic reform
policies. In the past year, the CM had confronted party
stalwarts like State Lands Reform Minister Abdur Razzak Mulloh,
who had threatened to resign in protest over the sale of large
tracts of land to corporate investors. In addition, the CM had
been publicly critical of State Minister for Higher Education
Satyasadhan Chakraborty, for not implementing education reforms
meant to enhance the employability of graduates. Ultimately,
all five of the old-line Communist Education Ministers were
denied tickets in this election for being too ineffectual and
rigidly dogmatic. Following his electoral victory, the CM can
be expected to initiate more reforms and efforts to attract
private investment in apparent contradiction of the CPM's
ideological principles. Bhattacharya has already announced a
desire for a new Calcutta airport, financed and managed by
private investors, even while the CPM national leadership is
protesting UPA plans to privatize Mumbai and New Delhi airports.


7. (SBU) Ironically, at the national level the CPM leadership
will likely take the opposite tack, using the election results
to pressure the Congress-led UPA to back off from economic
reforms and closer relations with the US. CPM MP Mohammad Salim
commented to Post that the election results demonstrate that
Congress cannot take Left support for granted, particularly on
the issues of reform and foreign policy.


8. (SBU) Congress' poor showing in Assam contributes to its
waning in Eastern India. The results demonstrate that at least
in this area, Congress is failing to manage regional and
coalition politics. In a region with almost a third of India's
population, Congress appears to be a fading presence, having,

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aside from Assam, a government in Arunachal Pradesh and a weak
coalition government in Manipur.
JARDINE