LEFTIST PROJECTED TO WIN WEST BENGAL STATE ASSEMBLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000148

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI ASEC IN
SUBJECT: LEFTIST PROJECTED TO WIN WEST BENGAL STATE ASSEMBLY
ELECTIONS

REF: A) CALCUTTA 00109 B) CALCUTTA 00105


1. (SBU) Summary: On April 17, West Bengal will hold its first
phase of the state assembly elections. With only a few days
remaining, main opposition parties the Trinamul Congress
(Trinamul) and the Congress Party (Congress) have failed to
unite against the ruling Left Front. The only "opposition"
faced by the Left Front in its campaign has come from the
stringent guidelines being enforced by the national Election
Commission (EC). The Leftist leaders have expressed strong
objection to some of the EC's actions, including raids in
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) offices. However, the
Left leadership claims that they will follow all EC directives.
Even with the additional oversight, The Left Front is still
expected to win more than 200 of the 294 state assembly seats.
The EC is also initiating security measures for the first phase
of polling in the Maoist-affected districts. End Summary.

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Opposition Fails to Unite
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2. (U) Despite extensive discussions, principal opposition
parties Congress and Trinamul have failed to forge an alliance
against the ruling Left Front. The anti-Left votes will
therefore split between the two parties, helping the Left to win
the state government for the seventh consecutive time. Trinamul
chief Mamata Banerjee had called for a "mahajot" or grand
alliance that would include the Congress. However, Congress
declined since her party is allied with the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP),a Hindu communal party. Banerjee is leading a
platform, the Paschimbanga Ganatantrik Front (West Bengal
Democratic Front) that includes the BJP and other smaller
parties. The Trinamul is fielding 252 candidates, leaving 32
seats for the BJP and 10 for smaller allies. Congress announced
260 electoral candidates, leaving other seats for smaller allies
like the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS) and Jharkhand
Mukti Morcha (JMM). Congress is also experiencing trouble in
the party stronghold of Murshidabad district. As a result of
factional fighting, the district Congress chief is fielding
independent candidates to challenge official Congress candidates
chosen by the central leadership.

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Left versus Election Commission
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3. (SBU) Lacking a serious competitor, the EC seems to have
become the Left's only "opposition." The EC has come down
heavily on alleged electoral malpractices in West Bengal where
the Left Front has ruled uninterrupted for the past 29 years.
The EC cleaned-up the electoral rolls of fake and dead voters,
whose names have been used in the past by the Left to stuff the
ballot box, deleting more than 1.4 million names in the process.
The EC also controlled issuance of photo-identity cards for
voters, banned political graffiti, has ordered the installation
digital cameras in voting booths and the presence of central
police personnel at polling stations among a range of other
stringent measures to ensure free and fair elections. The
voting process also will be in an unprecedented five phases to
facilitate greater supervision (April 17, 22 and 27, and then
May 3 and 8. Counting will take place on May 11.) Not even the
corruption-plagued Bihar had as many phases in its 2005 assembly
elections.


4. (U) In response to the EC pressure, on April 3 a Left Front
delegation led by CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat met with
the EC authorities to protest its measures, specifically the
deployment of central paramilitary forces in all polling booths,
the deletion of a large number of voters from the electoral
rolls, the "biased" role of certain observers and the ban on
graffiti, posters and banners in West Bengal. The Left alleged
that opposition parties were trying to have names of genuine
voters deleted from the electoral list by furnishing biased
information to the EC. Karat added that CPM MP Alokesh Das had
been served a notice by the EC to prove he is a genuine citizen
and not an illegal Bangladeshi settler in West Bengal.


5. (U) During the night of April 4-5, police and central
paramilitary force personnel raided two CPM offices in Keshpur,

CALCUTTA 00000148 002 OF 002


Midnapore district, under instructions from an EC observer to
look for arms and ammunition. CPM alleged that Trinamul members
accompanied the raiding force. The CPM lodged a protest with the
Chief Election Commissioner. However, the EC maintained that
the observer performed his duties correctly, while the CPM
complained of his partisan behaviour.



6. (U) Further on April 5, EC lodged a police complaint
against West Bengal Transport Minister and CPM candidate Subhas
Chakraborty, charging his public outburst against election
officials "aimed at preventing officials from impartially
performing their duties of free and fair elections."
Chakraborty reportedly said that state bureaucrats engaged in
poll work were "going too far in the name of conducting
elections." He warned that after the election process was over
on May 11, he would teach the state bureaucrats who followed the
EC guidelines in administering the elections a lesson. He
threatened that they were on the payroll of his government and
would have to fall to the feet of the state ministers for whom
they worked. Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Karat
admitted that Chakraborty remarks were inflammatory and that he
had made a mistake.

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The Red Fort Secure
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7. (U) With the opposition disunited and lacking an
alternative political agenda, the Left is expected to win
easily, possibly in a landslide. A CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll
survey shows the Left Front increasing its number of seats from
its present 199 to 233-243, out of a total of 294. The Congress
with it current 26 seats is expected to only win 24-30 and
Trinamul may see a significant drop from 60 to only 24-30 seats.
A Kolkata TV-Org Marg survey indicates that the Left Front may
win only 200-210 seats, and Trinamul and Congress would retain
approximately their present number of seats. A Star Ananda-A.C.
Nielsen survey shows more than 210 seats for the Left, 38-40
seats for the Trinamul and 30-32 seats for the Congress.
First Phase: Tackling Maoists


8. (U) In response to the persistent threat of Maoist violence,
the EC directed West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand governments to
ensure inter-state borders were sealed during the polling period
in the Maoist-affected districts of West Midnapore, Bankura and
Purulia. In recent months, the Maoists have targeted and
murdered CPM officials in these districts (Reftel) and have
called for a boycott of the elections. Deputy Election
Commissioner R. Balakrishnan told the press that EC and local
officials were prepared and have reviewed all aspects of
election management and security arrangements in the three
districts.


9. (SBU) Comment: The CPM and Left Front allies are expected
to win a sizeable majority of the state assembly seats in the
coming election. The only question is whether it will be
landslide victory as indicated by some pre-voting polls. If
Chief Minister Bhattacharya is able to lead the Left Front to a
major victory, he will likely feel secure enough to implement
more radical free market economic reforms for the state and to
more aggressively court foreign investment.
JARDINE