PARTIES JOCKEY FOR POSITION JUST DAYS BEFORE ASSAM STATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000134

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER ASEC SOCI IN
SUBJECT: PARTIES JOCKEY FOR POSITION JUST DAYS BEFORE ASSAM STATE
ELECTION

REF: A) CALCUTTA 0029; B) CALCUTTA 0032; C) CALCUTTA 0071


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 3 India's Northeastern state of
Assam will begin its two-phased state assembly election. The
second phase will be the following week on April 10. Even in
the last hours of campaigning, the situation is still very
fluid. No party has a clear majority and yet no formal
alliances have been announced. Instead, parties have made
arrangements in various constituencies, such as the ruling
Congress Party's concession not to run candidates against the
Bodo tribal party Bodoland People's Progressive Front - Hagrama
(BPPF-H),which controls the Bodoland Territorial Area District.
The lack of formal alliances reflects the parties' desire to
keep their options open in the post election jockeying to
establish a government. Adding to the instability is the
continued possibility of violence from various ethnic groups.
Congress is struggling to maintain its dominance but still
appears likely to form a coalition government. End Summary.


2. (U) On March 1, the Election Commission announced a two-phase
election for the 126-seat Assam legislative assembly. 65
Legislative Assembly constituencies will go to polls in the
first phase on April 3 and 61 on April 10. Votes will be
counted on May 11.


3. (SBU) Even with polling just days away, the parties have yet
to make any formal alliances. The parties prefer to coordinate
their campaign only in specific constituencies. For example,
the ruling Congress Party has an understanding with Bodo tribal
party Bodoland People's Progressive Front - Hagrama (BPPF-H)
which controls the Bodoland Territorial Area District that
Congress candidates will not run in the Bodo areas. Opposition
regional party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) announced it would not
ally with Hindu opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),
recognizing the potential importance of the Muslim community,
which constitutes almost 30 percent of Assam's 26 million
people. In addition, the AGP has an understanding with a number
of small Leftist parties like the Communist Party of India -
Marxist (CPM),Communist Party of India (CPI),the Autonomous
State Demand Committee (ASDC) and Bodo party faction the BPPF
(R). The parties will therefore avoid having candidates
competing in the same constituencies.


4. (U) The recently formed Muslim party, the Asom United
Democratic Front (AUDF),backed by the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind,
may have an understanding with the Nationalist Congress Party
(NCP) led by former Lok Sabha Speaker Purno A. Sangma. The AUDF
leadership has claimed it will oppose the Congress for failing
to protect Muslim interests. However, while campaigning in
Assam on March 30, Congress President Sonia Gandhi has said her
party is committed to minority rights and has introduced the
Foreigners' (Tribunals for Assam) Order 2006 under the
Foreigners Act. This order will protect illegal Bangladeshi
immigrants, making the process for identification of an illegal
migrant and possible deportation, too difficult and time
consuming to implement. The new order will effectively
re-instate the Illegal Migrants Determination Tribunal Act
(IMDT),which the Supreme Court found unconstitutional in July

2005. Though only a few months old, the AUDF is reportedly
already plagued by factionalism.


5. (SBU) The lack of defined political alliances reflects the
parties' desire to keep their options open in the anticipated
wrangling to form a coalition government. State Congress
Secretary Pradut Bhuyan (protect) told post that no single party

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can hope to win an absolute majority in the assembly. A
coalition government led by the Congress Party seems to be the
most likely scenario. Assam Congress leader Bhubaneswar Kalita
also commented that the party is intentionally avoiding
discussing the fate of Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to appease the
ethnic minorities who feel Gogoi has failed to protect their
interests and in a more blatant example of pandering, on
February 27 the Congress government officially announced Assam
is now called "Asom," the ethnic Assamese name for the state.


6. (SBU) An intelligence official told post that although the
elections are expected to be mostly peaceful, terrorist group
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) or possibly unspecified
Muslim groups could conduct attacks during the polling.

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According to media sources, ULFA has expressed apprehensions
that if an AGP and BJP government comes to power as they did
prior to 2001, there would be more secret killings and
operations against ULFA members. ULFA has also warned, through
the local media, the political parties in Assam against
encouraging people to vote, describing the elections as nothing
more than a "farce" repeated every five years, which enables the
Center to expand its "colonial rule" in Assam. An ULFA
statement released on March 30 said, "It is time the people of
Assam reject political parties or leaders who do not have a
definite plan or given a concrete assurance to solve the
India-Assam conflict (sic)."


7. (SBU) COMMENT: With no party likely to receive a clear
majority, the presently ruling Congress appears most likely to
be able to form a coalition government, given its existing
dominant position. Congress officials are hoping to receive at
least 45 seats and then cobble together the 64 seats required to
govern through alliances with a number of smaller parties.
However, the Muslim vote will be decisive in the election. In
the past, they have voted en bloc for the Congress but now the
vote will be divided between the AUDF and Congress. A split in
the Muslim vote gives a glimmer of hope to the AGP and BJP that
they also have a small chance at forming a government.
JARDINE