ELECTION COMMISSION SCHEDULES WEST BENGAL ASSEMBLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000105

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI PTER IN
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION SCHEDULES WEST BENGAL ASSEMBLY
ELECTIONS

REF: CALCUTTA 0003


1. (U) Summary: On March 1, the Election Commission (EC)
announced an extended five-phase polling schedule for West
Bengal's (WB) upcoming state legislative assembly election. The
phased schedule reflects the EC's intention to monitor polling
closely in this state noted for vote rigging by the long-ruling
Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPM). The EC recently
deleted the names of over one million fake and dead voters from
the voters' list. Undaunted, CPM officials have staged a rush
of new project inaugurations and groundbreaking ceremonies to
burnish their Party's record of attracting development and
private investment. The CPM has also dropped "old-school" CPM
officials who have questioned Chief Minister (CM) Buddhadeb
Bhattacharjee's new mantra of economic reform and private
investment from the Party's candidate list. Opposition parties
Congress and Trinamul Congress are still unable to form an
alliance, as Trinamul leader Mamata Banerjee refuses to drop her
association with marginal player Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Meanwhile, Maoist violence against WB and CPM officials in south
Bengal appears to be intensifying with the approach of
elections. End Summary.


2. (U) On March 1, the Election Commission announced an
unprecedented five-phase polling schedule for WB's legislative
assembly elections. Of the four states and one union territory
scheduled to hold elections this coming April-May, WB is the
only state with such an extended election schedule. On April
17, 45 assembly constituencies will go to the polls, 66 on April
22, 77 on April 27, 57 on May 3 and 49 on May 8. Votes will be
counted on May 11. CPM leadership, unhappy with the EC's
intense oversight, has said that such a prolonged process in WB
was unnecessary. Alternatively, opposition parties are hopeful
that the schedule will result in a fairer voting environment for
their candidates.


3. (U) EC observers are in WB March 1-9 for the third time in
recent months to review pre-poll preparations, the electoral
rolls and to assess the GOWB's execution of non-bailable
warrants against criminals. On February 22, the EC released a
revised electoral list with 1.29 million dead or fake voters'
names deleted and 2.14 million eligible names added. The total
list has 49 million voters; an increase of 851,000 voters since
the last state assembly elections in 2001. To ensure control of
polling stations, EC observers will reportedly supervise
paramilitary forces during the election.


4. (U) Undaunted by the EC's challenge to their primacy, CPM
officials, lead by the CM, have been campaigning aggressively.
In recent weeks, the CM has inaugurated new high-profile
development projects and broken ground on a new medical college,
two hospitals, a management institute, a thermal power station,
a book mall, redevelopment of an industrial township, a sugar
refinery, a water-pumping project and a motorcycle factory, to
list just a few examples. To attract the Muslim vote, the CPM
GOWB also announced that it would upgrade a 225-year old
Calcutta Madrassa to a full-fledged college. GOWB-funded
billboards throughout Calcutta highlight the state's
development, with slogans like: "Agriculture is our foundation,
industry is our future;" "Winds of industrialization are blowing
over the cultural capital" and "Roads are meant not just for
walking on, roads pave the way for economic progress." CPM
State Secretary Anil Biswas said that 3 million party volunteers
are already canvassing across the state.


5. (SBU) The CM and his supporters are using the elections to
consolidate the CM's more reformist economic policies in the
Party. The party is dropping older party functionaries not
fully committed to private investment, excluding sixty-four
sitting Left Front MLAs, including eight ministers from the list
of candidates released on February 16. "Old-school" ideologies
are being shed, literally, as all the senior CPM officials in
the Education Ministry have been dropped for failing to
introduce a new, market-oriented curriculum. The CPM is also
bringing in new blood, as 108 of its candidates are first-time
contestants, with 70 reportedly less than 40 years of age. The
total of 290 Left Front candidates include: CPM 210, Forward
Bloc 34, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 23, CPI 13,

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Socialist Party 4, Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) 2, Marxist
Forward Bloc 2, Revolutionary Communist Party of India (RCPI) 1
and Biplabi Bangla Congress 1.


6. (SBU) While the Left has kicked-off a well-organized
campaign, the opposition parties have not yet been able to
finalize an alliance or release their candidate lists. Trinamul
Congress leader Mamata Banerjee has been meeting with state
Congress President and national Union Defense Minister Pranab
Mukherjee, and central Congress leader Margaret Alva to
negotiate a possible alliance between the two main opposition
parties. However, Congress is willing to forge an alliance with
her only if she breaks with the BJP. So far, Banerjee has not
dumped the marginal BJP, despite persistent reports of
disagreements between the two parties over seat-sharing. State
BJP President Tathagata Roy told post that Banerjee is insisting
on allotting Muslim-dominated constituencies to the BJP where it
could not possibly win. Congress Working President Pradip
Bhattacharya told post that this difference might provide a
chance for the Congress to ally with Trinamul. However,
Bhattacharya said that the situation is very uncertain.
Congress is forging ahead with planned alliances with some
smaller parties like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the
Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS).


7. (SBU) Meanwhile, Maoist insurgents appear to be stepping up
their attacks on CPM officials and police in remote areas of
south Bengal. On February 26, a Maoist attempt to murder the
Superintendent of Police in West Midnapore with a landmine
killed three policemen and a villager. Police believe this was
a revenge attack by rebels against a crackdown launched by the
government, which resulted in the arrest of two woman cadres on
February 7. On February 13, Maoists attacked a bank, stealing
Rupees 160,000 (USD 3,608) and a police camp, looting ten guns
in Purulia. On January 23, Maoists blew up a forest bungalow in
Bandwan, Purulia and on December 31 killed a local CPM leader
and his wife. The state government has appealed to the GOI for
more security forces to tackle the Maoist menace in the run-up
to the elections.


8. (SBU) Comment: The EC is clearly taking its responsibility
for ensuring free and fair elections in WB very seriously. The
upcoming elections will likely be the fairest ever held in the
state. However, the CPM is unlikely to lose its hold, given its
entrenched position after 29 years of power and weak opposition.
The only real question will be whether CM Bhattacharjee can use
the coming state elections to consolidate his position within
the Left Front. The election of his supporters will help him
implement more aggressive economic reforms and curtail
resistance from the party's old-line members.
JARDINE