EGYPT: SENIOR JUDGE PREDICTS OUTCOME OF AYMAN NOUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000861

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: SENIOR JUDGE PREDICTS OUTCOME OF AYMAN NOUR
CASE

REF: A. CAIRO 314


B. 05 CAIRO 9545

Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) During a meeting with several senior judicial
officials on February 12, Judge Ahmed Khalifa (strictly
protect),President of Egypt's Supreme Court of Appeals,
pulled poloff aside to provide an apparently well-informed
prediction about the legal case of imprisoned opposition
leader Ayman Nour. Speaking in a low whisper, Khalifa told
poloff that Nour's conviction would be overturned by Egypt's
Court of Cassation within three months. "The case will then
come to me, and I will give him a one year suspended
sentence," Khalifa stated. "No one knows this, not even my
colleagues," added Khalifa, pointing to fellow judges sitting
at the meeting table across the room.


2. (C) Comment: Khalifa's report strikes us as plausible and
a typically Egyptian solution to the problem the Nour case
has posed for the GOE. His statements also clearly implied
that the Nour case was being directed at the political level,
rather than by its legal merits as determined by the
judiciary. End comment.


3. (C) Meanwhile, Nour's chief defense attorney, Amir Salem,
told us on February 13 that the legal team was in the final
stages of preparing an appeal, which he predicted could be
filed as soon as February 16. Salem added that Nour's health
and morale in prison have improved markedly in the past two
weeks. Nour has been moved to the "ranch" - a section of
Torah Prison reserved mainly for white collar criminals.
RICCIARDONE