MUBARAK ON DARFUR, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 007000

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR ELA
NSC FOR WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS EG IR IZ SU
SUBJECT: MUBARAK ON DARFUR, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT


Classified by Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary/Aciton Request
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1. (S) President Mubarak informed visiting Congresswoman
Diane Watson on November 27 that he would travel to Khartoum
within ten days to follow up on the recent Tripoli Darfur
meetings and that he invited the presidents of Eritrea, Chad
and the CAR to visit Cairo within the next month. Mubarak
warned against including Syria in potential talks with the
Iranians, provided views on next steps for the U.S. in Iraq,
and advised of upcoming GOE efforts to keep the
Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire in place. Action Request:
Congresswoman Watson has requested Department to brief her on
this report. End summary and action request.

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Darfur
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2. (S) Representative Watson raised her strong personal
determination and that of her colleagues of both parties to
urgently end the suffering of the people of Darfur, and
requested Mubarak's help. President Mubarak recounted his
recent visit to Libya and his personal conversations with
Bashir. Mubarak said he was "very tough" on Bashir, even
"addressing him like a subordinate," so he would understand
how dangerous the situation in Darfur was. Mubarak said
Qadhafi had a similar talk with Bashir during the conference.
According to Mubarak, his rebukes agitated Bashir: Mubarak
told him not to be agitated but to "just listen." Mubarak
said he will travel to Khartoum within ten days to meet with
Bashir and make sure he "understands" and is taking actin on
the Libya discussions. Mubarak also said he had invited the
presidents of Chad and the CAR to Cairo for talks within a
month, and said he expected an Eritrean delegation to visit
Cairo by mid December to follow-up on the Libya summit. He
added that EGIS Director Omar Soliman will also continue to
talk with the "very difficult" Khalil Ibrahim, whom he
described as one of Turabi's ideological "sons -- he is an
extremist and was very tough at first, but after a few days
with EGIS, he calmed down a bit."


3. (C) Mubarak said we all need to work in Sudan to "bring
the tribes together" and forge a peace agreement so that
peacekeeping could commence. The UN Resolution, though, was
"not right," as it deals with secondary issues such as
borders and judicial systems; "there is no need for that at
the beginning." Mubarak said he wanted to focus on the
situation in Darfur first, "and not interfere in internal
affairs."


4. (C) Representative Watson described the evidence of
genocide she had witnessed during her visit to Darfur.
Mubarak said that while he granted that terrible violence had
occurred, he had his doubts about whether what has happened
can be considered genocide. He said the GOE has sent a
"special" team there to investigate these claims. The
Ambassador noted recent reports of Sudanese government
aircraft supporting Janjaweed raids on villages, and reported
that we would provide photographic intelligence. Mubarak
acknowledged that the GOE has also seen reports, and said
this contributed to his very tough treatment of Bashir.

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Iraq: Exit Strategy
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5. (S) Representative Watson informed President Mubarak that
her party was deliberating proposals for a successful U.S.
exit strategy in Iraq, including how best to cede security
responsibility to its democratically elected government.
Mubarak responded emphatically that "for the one-hundredth
time I advise you -- forget about democracy in Iraq for now;
you will never get out unless you do." Recounting his
dealings with Iraqis over the years and his experience with
the Iraqi psyche, Mubarak said the Iraqi people require and
want a "strong but fair" leader; the ethnic and religious
composition of the Iraq cannot support anything else.
Referring to some of the potential dangers of democracy in
Iraq, Mubarak pointed to the ascension of Hamas in the West
Bank and Gaza, a shift he described as "terrible." "These
kinds of people (religious extremists) will only use

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democracy to take power, then they won't let go," he said.



6. (C) Representative Watson sought Mubarak's views on U.S.
troop levels and their deployment within Iraq. Mubarak said
there must be well-trained Iraqi troops patrolling the towns
and battling the insurgents, and said the redeployment of
U.S. forces outside of Iraqi population areas is of the
utmost importance. He said we must "move them (the U.S.
forces) out of the cities -- put them far away in the desert"
and allow a strengthened Iraqi military, that "understands
the psychology of the people," deal with the insurgents. "If
the troops moved out (of the population areas)," he said,"
you wouldn't need more of them." Mubarak added that seeking
the counsel of Iraq's neighboring countries, particularly
Turkey, would be very helpful to our efforts.



7. (C) Mubarak recounted his earlier admonitions to the U.S.
about dissolving the Iraqi army and using U.S. combat troops
to conduct urban patrols. He thought U.S. efforts to train
Iraqi military and police forces were ineffective, partially
because of an inconsistency in training methods and cultures,
i.e. some troops training in the UAE with others in Jordan,
etc. The Iraqi military needs to be cohesive and strong, he
said, and he feels the troops would receive the best
centralized training in Egypt. "Send us 500 Iraqi soldiers
every two months," he said, and Egypt will ensure they
receive a strong and coherent training program.



8. (C) Representative Watson noted that some in her party had
proposed partitioning Iraq into three states. Mubarak
emphatically warned: "Do not ever commit this mistake," as
the three entities "will fight each other until the end of
the world." Mubarak insisted the U.S. needed to do all it
can to bring the factions together; "listen to my advice," he
said, "and you will be safe." He advised we need only look
at Somalia for a smaller scale example of what partition
brings since "they fight every day" there.

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Iran, Syria
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9. (S) Representative Watson asked mubarak's views on
prospective U.S. diplomatic dialogues with Syria and Iran.
Mubarak advised that the U.S. should engage Iran, "if you
feel you must," but he warned emphatically against involving
Syria in such discussions with them, or separately.
Involving Syria, Mubarak insisted, will only make other
regional players such as Turkey and Jordan "suspicious," and
Syria's slate of "problems" in Lebanon and in the
Israeli-Palestinian dispute will hamper progress. Mubarak
warned that "talking to Syria would be seen as your giving
them a free hand to slap Lebanon," and they would feel
affirmed as a central determiner of that country's fate.
"This would be dangerous, dangerous, dangerous!"


10. (S) Mubarak also warned that Iran is dangerous,
particularly as a potential nuclear weapons proliferator.
"We want a region free of nuclear weapons." However, the
U.S. could engage Iran, as it is supplying arms and money to
groups in Iraq and elsewhere and wields a great deal of
influence among the Shiites in Iraq and the Arabian Gulf as
well. If the U.S. can get Iran to "close the tap," he
opined, Syria will cease to be an issue. Mubarak warned that
the Iranians are a "mad people," though, and while he does
not trust them it is important to understand their thinking.
A nuclear Iran is very dangerous, Mubarak asserted, but using
force against it would have serious consequences for Iran's
neighbors and U.S. interests, including business, in the Gulf
and beyond.

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
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11. (S) Representative Watson queried Mubarak on Egypt's
efforts to foster peace between the Israelis and
Palestinians. Mubarak said that the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict remained central to the future of the region, and to
help "keep the truce alive," he would be sending EGIS
Director Omar Soliman to Israel on Wednesday, November 29 to
meet with Israeli PM Olmert, the MOD and others, in addition
to PA and Hamas officials. Mubarak said PM Olmert told him

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that the Israelis were ready to meet and discuss prisoner
releases but Hamas, according to Mubarak, "does not care."
Mubarak described Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal as "impossible,"
and said he had admonished Meshaal over the damage he was
bringing upon the Palestinian people by holding the Israeli
soldier hostage.
RICCIARDONE