Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CAIRO6038
2006-09-26 10:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

MUBARAK FOCUSES ON NUCLEAR ENERGY IN EGYPT'S FUTURE

Tags:  ENRG PGOV TSPL KNNP EG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1645
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 0205
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 0021
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0021
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1094
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0324
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1176
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 0032
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 006038 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ELA, ISN/NESS
AMMAN FOR WHITTLESEY
NSC FOR R. WATERS
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: ENRG PGOV TSPL KNNP EG
SUBJECT: MUBARAK FOCUSES ON NUCLEAR ENERGY IN EGYPT'S FUTURE

REF: A. CAIRO 6016

B. CAIRO 2350

C. CAIRO 5430

Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission Stuart Jones for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 006038

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ELA, ISN/NESS
AMMAN FOR WHITTLESEY
NSC FOR R. WATERS
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: ENRG PGOV TSPL KNNP EG
SUBJECT: MUBARAK FOCUSES ON NUCLEAR ENERGY IN EGYPT'S FUTURE

REF: A. CAIRO 6016

B. CAIRO 2350

C. CAIRO 5430

Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission Stuart Jones for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: At last week's National Democratic Party
(NDP) conference, both President Mubarak and his son Gamal
highlighted nuclear energy as an alternative to continued
reliance on fossil fuels. Prime Minister Nazif convened the
Supreme Council for Energy for the first time in 18 years to
discuss nuclear energy options. Currently, 85% of Egypt's
energy comes from oil or natural gas, which the government
estimates will be depleted in the next thirty-five years. The
Ambassador publicly supported nuclear power cooperation with
Egypt, and the Embassy issued a press release drawing
attention to the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP)
(see text below). Paragraph 7 outlines Post's near-term
strategy for effectively fostering cooperation with the GOE
on nuclear development. End Summary.

--------------
NUCLEAR ENERGY: PILLAR OF DEVELOPMENT
--------------


2. (C) As reported in ref A, addressing delegates at last
week's NDP conference, both Gamal Mubarak, Assistant
Secretary General for Policies, and President Mubarak urged

SIPDIS
consideration of a nuclear energy plan. In his September 19
opening speech, Gamal, calling energy a pillar of
development, urged exploration of energy options, including
nuclear energy, eliciting strong applause. Citing Egypt's
role as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT),Gamal said Egypt has the right to develop and possess
nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. President Mubarak
reiterated these sentiments in closing remarks on September

21. "I call for a serious dialogue that takes into
consideration the cheap clean sources of energy produced by
nuclear technology, especially as we are not starting from
scratch and we possess the knowledge of this technology."
Some local analysts view these comments, made when tensions

over Iran's nuclear program are high, were at least partially
aimed at provoking displeasure from the United States and
bolstering Egypt's image as a regional leader, therefore
enhancing Gamal's image.

--------------
NAZIF CONVENES NUCLEAR ENERGY COMMITTEE
--------------


3. (C) On September 24, Prime Minister Nazif convened the
Supreme Council for Energy for the first time in eighteen
years to discuss nuclear energy options. In a meeting later
that day with the Ambassador, Minister of Investment Mahmoud
Mohieldin estimated Egypt has thirty-five years of fossil
fuel reserves and projected that development of a viable
nuclear energy program would take twelve to fifteen years.
Mohieldin cited population growth and increasing energy
demands as factors in the decision to develop nuclear
technology, adding that the GOE plans to emulate G-8 policies
on nuclear regulation. He was pleased with the Ambassador's
announcement of USG support for an Egyptian nuclear program.

--------------
NUCLEAR ENERGY RESOURCES
--------------


4. (C) The Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority (EAEA),an arm of
the Ministry of Electricity, has overseen Egypt's small-scale
nuclear experiments since the 1960s; Minister of Electricity
Hassan Younis will oversee the development of the nuclear
energy program. Two other bodies, the Nuclear Power Plant
Authority and the Nuclear Materials Authority, also under the
MOE, will have smaller regulatory roles. In the early
1980's, the GOE was planning construction of full-scale
nuclear power plant, but dropped the project after Chernobyl.
Currently, the EAEA oversees the operation of two nuclear
research facilities, both in Inshas in the Nile Delta. In
1997, scientists began research at the Abu Zabel Nuclear
Research Center, whose 22-megawatt Argentinean built reactor
allows for training and maintaining personnel needed to
operate a nuclear facility. EAEA is maintains a 1950's
Russian-built 2 megawatt research reactor. In February,
2005, the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA),
audited all Egyptian nuclear facilities and concluded that
the research centers did not appear to be developing nuclear
weapons. For the past nine years, the U.S. Department of
Energy, in conjunction with its national laboratories, has
provided ongoing technical assistance to nuclear scientists
at the EAEA. This assistance includes a "Sister Laboratory
Arrangement" and cooperation on the International Management
Program on Radioactive Sealed Sources (IMPRSS).

--------------
OVERALL ENERGY SITUATION
--------------


5. (SBU) Egypt generates about 85% of its electric power
using locally-produced natural gas; all oil-fired power
plants have been converted to natural gas. A rapidly growing
population, limited hydroelectric options, declining oil
reserves in the mature fields of the Gulf of Suez, and
increasing reliance on natural gas point to a need for
alternative energy sources. Wind power projects have been
tried on both the Mediterranean and Gulf of Suez coasts, but
associated costs have limited their economic viability. A
partial-solar plant is in the works as a BOOT enterprise, but
local analysts generally don't believe that either solar or
wind energy can cope with the rising demand fueled by
population growth. Embassy contacts in the petroleum sector
have encouraged the GOE to pursue the nuclear option to free
up gas reserves for export.


6. (U) On September 21, the Embassy issued the following
press statement:

Begin text:

Ambassador Ricciardone on a Peaceful Nuclear Power Program in
Egypt: Speaking in Arabic to Egyptian Mehwar TV, Ambassador
Ricciardone noted that the United States encourages the
peaceful use of nuclear power for civilian purposes
throughout the world. He drew attention to the U.S. Global
Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) and referred reporters for
full details to the GNEP's web site
(http://www.gnep.energy.gov) as well as to remarks made by
Clay Sell, Deputy Secretary of Energy and Robert Joseph,
Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International
Security at a Washington Foreign Press Center briefing, on
February 16, 2006, which can be found at
(http://fpc.state.gov/fpc/61808.htm). Under Secretary Joseph
discussed the GNEP with Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit in
April. (ref B)

End text.

(Note: Ambassador Schulte also discussed the GNEP in a
meeting with FM Aboul Gheit in August (ref C). End note)

--------------
NEXT STEPS
--------------


7. (C) Post proposes the following three-step strategy to
engage the GOE on nuclear energy development and achieve
effective long-term cooperation:

-- In addition to Ambassadorial outreach to the Prime
Minister and Minister of Electricity, the Embasssy Energy
Officer will meet the week of October 1st with
Undersecretary-level contacts at the Ministry of Electricity
and the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority in order to gauge
current organizational preparedness and priorities. Such
meetings will also allow post to pinpoint the individuals to
whom the majority of the heavy lifting will fall.

-- The Ambassador will seek meetings with the Prime Minister
and Minister of Electricity for the week of October 29
(following the end of the Ramadan month of fasting) to check
progress on the GOE side, re-affirm our commitment at the
political level, and lay the groundwork for future
cooperation.

-- Post proposes a visit from a GNEP-focused delegation to
Cairo, perhaps at the A/S level, sometime in the
November/December timeframe. This should allow the Egyptians
enough time to address organizational issues, achieve some
degree of cabinet-level interagency agreement on next steps
(to include the role of the MoD and security agencies) prior
to a visit. Post believes that the effectiveness of a
high-level visit to Cairo will be maximized if GOE
interlocutors have had time to establish interagency
coordination and determine what latitude they will have in
decision-making.


8. (C) Comment: Though the GOE is in the very early planning
stages, President Mubarak's comments appear to indicate a
clear intent by the GOE to start a nuclear energy program
despite a lack of clarity over costs and likely technical
hurdles. Under current conditions of economic and population
growth, combined with high fossil fuel prices, it is not
surprising that the GOE is seriously considering other
sources of energy. There are strong political reasons
underlying the announcement as well, with its anticipated
positive impact on national and Arab pride, and its
affirmation of Egyptian "independence," certainly part of the
calculus. We have heard directly from the German, South
Korean and Australian embassies that their governments are
also eager to assist Egypt with this initiative.
RICCIARDONE