PALESTINIAN ELECTION RESULTS A "SURPRISE" TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000482

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL PTER KDEM EG IS MEPN
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN ELECTION RESULTS A "SURPRISE" TO
EGYPT: QUARTET, EGYPT MUST ENGAGE

REF: CAIRO 441

Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) During a January 26 meeting with poloff, MFA Cabinet
staff member responsible for the peace process portfolio,
Ezzedine Shukry-Fisher, and Palestinian Affairs Office
Director Randa Labaib, expressed surprise that Hamas had done
so well in the latest parliamentary elections. Noting that
the MFA was not the only GOE entity to have been wrong in its
predictions, Shukry-Fisher shared that Egyptian Intelligence,
too, had miscalculated on final results: "their people (i.e.,
EGIS staff) on the ground had led headquarters to believe the
results would be much different." Shukry-Fisher said the GOE
attached particular importance to the upcoming January 30
Quartet statement since it would signify the direction in
which the peace process would be taken and lock in respective
national positions of the Quartet members. Shukry-Fisher
noted that Egypt intended to engage closely with the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas in coming days/weeks to
ensure the peace process did not fall victim to the political
shock of a potential Hamas government.


2. (C) Egypt would await the official release by the
Palestinian Election Commission of its preliminary election
results, he added, before publicly commenting. Furthermore,
Egypt would be carefully studying the public positions taken
by Quartet members and European Capitals. Shukry-Fisher
predicted "two weeks of confusion" while election results and
political realignments are sorted out. Nevertheless, the GOE
would certainly be engaging with all concerned parties in how
to move the peace process forward under new circumstances.
RICCIARDONE