Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06CAIRO3119
2006-05-25 08:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

THE DEPUTY SECRETARY,S MAY 20 MEETING WITH

Tags:  PREL ECON PTER KPAL IS XF 
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R 250844Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8484
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003119 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016
TAGS: PREL ECON PTER KPAL IS XF
SUBJECT: THE DEPUTY SECRETARY,S MAY 20 MEETING WITH
PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003119


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016
TAGS: PREL ECON PTER KPAL IS XF
SUBJECT: THE DEPUTY SECRETARY,S MAY 20 MEETING WITH
PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS


1. (U) Classified by Economic and Political Counselor John
Desrocher, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


2. (U) May 20, 2006; 11:45AM; Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt


3. (U) Participants:

U.S.
--------------
The Deputy Secretary
Ambassador Ricciardone
NEA DAS Scott Carpenter
D Executive Assistant Mike Matera
D Senior Advisor Rich Mills
D Special Assistant Aaron Jost
Embassy Cairo Kevin Roland (notetaker)

Palestinian Authority
--------------
President Mahmoud Abbas
Chief Palestinian Negotiator Saab Erekat
Fatah MP Nabil Shaath
Palestinian Ambassador to Egypt Munzir el-Dajani


4. (C) On the margins of the World Economic Forum meetings in
Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
told the Deputy Secretary that he will continue to pursue
negotiations with Israel and is prepared to put any
agreements before the Palestinian people via referendum. A
critical shortage of weapons and ammunition has left the
security services allied to the Presidency unable to confront
Hamas. Abbas says the Israeli refusal to allow Jordanian and
Egyptian arms shipments makes him increasingly vulnerable to
Hamas, who, with outside support, will pursue military
confrontation with Fatah/PLO. Abbas believes financial
pressures will not lead Hamas to compromise, and current
economic woes will instead be blamed on the Presidency. End
Summary.

--------------
Palestinian-Israeli Dialogue
--------------


5. (C) Stressing that the Hamas-led government has no role in
the negotiations, Abbas said he would press on with
negotiations with the Israelis and put any proposed
agreements directly to the Palestinian people via referendum.
He said he has explained the referendum mechanism to the
Israelis and plans to mention it in his speech to the WEF.
He plans to meet with Israeli PM Olmert upon Olmert's return
to Israel from Washington, and will try to convince him that
a unilateral withdrawal is "not doable." Abbas is also
scheduled to meet with Israeli FM Livni, with whom he has
never previously met, on May 21. He agreed with the Deputy
Secretary's caution that the timing of any referendum would

have to be handled very carefully.

--------------
Confronting Hamas
--------------


6. (C) On the internal security front, President Abbas said
Hamas is determined "get rid" of him and will thus continue
armed clashes with the security services loyal to the
Presidency. Israeli blocking of the re-armament of his
services, however, has left him unable to confront Hamas due
to a shortage in firearms and ammunition. For instance, the
Presidential Guard in Rafah has only 120 rifles among them,
he said, leaving only 18 rifles for those stationed in
Ramallah. Shaath said the Hamas threat was "imminent," and
described those allied to Fatah and the Presidency as feeling
"naked" without the weapons with which to defend themselves.
Abbas said the Egyptians and Jordanians are being "very
helpful" and are poised to deliver the much-need munitions,
but Israeli refusals keep the shipments beyond the PA's
borders. Abbas said he would not resort to smuggling or
other "mafia" tactics to obtain the much-needed weaponry,
wishing instead to rearm "legally." The Deputy Secretary
noted that he would be meeting Israeli Foreign Minister Livni
and would see if recent developments in Gaza have changed the
GOI's perspectives on arms for the PA security services under
the Presidency's control.


7. (C) On confronting Hamas politically, Abbas said that he
faced two choices following Hamas' victory in the Palestinian
Legislative Council elections: 1) obstruct Hamas' ability to
govern as much as possible, or 2) let them go ahead and fail
on their own. Having chosen the second option, he believes
the Palestinian people, who remain largely moderate, realize
that they were mistaken in electing a Hamas-led government,
and recent polling data indicate declining support. Despite
sinking poll numbers and calls for change from the
Palestinian private sector and elsewhere, Abbas believes
Hamas is ideologically incapable and unwilling to change its
stance on Israel and support for terror. He opined that
Hamas believed that they would enjoy broad, global support,
but are now discovering that only Iran and Syria are behind
them. Entering into a coalition with Fatah could possibly
ease the pressure, as some Hamas officials in Gaza have
realized, but the "Hamas leadership in Damascus" could never
abide compromise.

Any moves toward compromise by the Gaza leadership would
be rejected by a radicalized rank and file and by the
military wing abroad, he said. Regarding options at his
disposal for forcing a change of government, President Abbas
noted that he does not "have the constitutional right to
dissolve the PLC," but does "have the right to topple the
government." He did not elaborate further upon the mechanism
by which he could do this.

--------------
Economic/Humanitarian Situation
--------------


8. (C) Abbas described the current economic situation as
"very dire," with no salary payments having been made to
government employees in nearly three months. Approximately
1.5 million Palestinians rely on the salaries paid to the
160,000 government employees. The PA is working with donors
on mechanisms to get aid funds flowing, but the EU will not
pay salaries due to the prohibitions on dealing with Hamas.
Erekat and Shaath said the worsening situation will be blamed
on the Presidency and the U.S., not Hamas, due in part to
Hamas subsidizing those employees that support it. The
Presidency does not have the funds necessary funds available
to run its core operations. The Deputy Secretary
acknowledged Abbas' concern that increased economic
frustration could create difficulties, but noted that support
funds could not be used to maintain a Hamas government which
has refused to accept the conditions laid out by the
international community and Abbas - renounce violence,
recognize Israel, and respect previous agreements and
obligations between the parties, including the Roadmap.

--------------
Rebuilding Fatah
--------------


9. (C) Despite a critical need for resources, Abbas said that
the Fatah has embarked on the rebuilding process and should
be "organized" within three months. Shaath said that they
are looking to enact a "democratic reformation" at the
grass-roots level, emphasize volunteerism in the party, and
learn from the failed party policies which led to their
defeat in the PLC. He added that the defeat has helped to
"ignite change" within the organization. This change takes
time, Shaath said, and resources are needed to stave off the
"imminent" threat of Hamas.

--------------
Iran's Role
--------------


10. (C) Erekat emphasized PLO fears of Iranian designs in
Palestine, offering his belief that the Euro 600,000 recently
seized on the Egypt/Gaza border during a smuggling attempt by
a Hamas official were Iranian funds. President Abbas
described Hamas' outside leadership as a "hostage" to Iran, a
link which, when combined with strong connections to the
broader Muslim Brotherhood movement, rules out any
possibility of compromise. Thus, Shaath explained, financial
pressure aimed at Hamas cannot force a quick political
change, but instead only worsens the economic situation for
ordinary Palestinians - an outcome that he believes will be
blamed on the Presidency. Increased Iranian influence in
Palestine would have serious consequences for the security of
Jordan and Egypt, Erekat added, and Israel's refusal to allow
the Presidency to rearm and confront Hamas is not helpful in
this regard.

--------------
Gaza Explosion
--------------


11. (C) Regarding the explosion that injured PA Intelligence
Chief Tarek Abu Rajab, President Abbas said he had no
specific information yet but added that there were signs of
Hamas involvement. Erekat said Abu Rajab had been flown to
an Israeli hospital where he was currently receiving
treatment.


12. (U) The Deputy Secretary's party has cleared this cable.


RICCIARDONE